- This topic has 111 replies, 47 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 7 months ago by
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Without rechecking the site my understanding of the bonus is 25% on any bet, lay or trade that results in a profit up to a sum of £200.
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i think cue card on what he has already shown, should win the supreme novices hurdle, he was up against a good sort in menorah that i backed to win, i did menorah in last years supreme. i would of liked henderson to have run bobs worth in this as his times over 2 mile were as good as ive ever seen, he may be a future champion at 2mile to 3 mile. bobs now goes for the neptune on tues or the albert bartlett on friday. wherever he runs back it because he is special, cue card for me in the supreme. the price is a bit low but the bookies know hes the one to beat.
I backed Zaidpour for this after his maiden hurdle win, but after he was beaten for the second successive time in the Delloitte, my instant reaction was that he won’t be good enough, nor have the speed, to win the Supreme.
However, looking at that race again, he was badly outpaced before staying on again well to comfortably beat Shot From The Hip and Hidden Universe. Off a stronger pace and on better ground he may well show a marked improvement in his performance. I’m not throwing away my docket just yet.
I’m not sure what to make of Cue Card. It’s tough to say whether Menorah quickened or Cue Card stopped last time out; more than likely a combination of both. I certainly wouldn’t be backing him but looking through the field it’s very difficult to find one to take him on with.
IThink I’ll just sit on my Zaidpour docket as I don’t have a strong enough opinion to get too heavily involved.
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I’d say Menorah quickened, though it looked far more impressive than it probably was, as both Cue Card and Silvianaco Conti (who ran very similar races) are both horses who really need further, and simply couldn’t accelerate with him.
I’d be surprised if either of them justify their short prices for their respective races, however.So Young well backed for this today, has Mullins said anything about switching targets?
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The Neptune has always been So Young’s target as far as I am aware (I’m sure there’s a video of Mullins somewhere saying just that). Indeed, he was absolutely pummelled in the ante-post market during the week.
Guys, comne on let’s be honest here…..this is the first Chelt SN horse with the form CC has. Compared to Cous Vin and Dun his course record is way beyond anything else. If he was Irish trained he would be 4/11…my serioulsy devalued house is on him and I’m CERTAIN he’s the bet of the meeting. Topic closed. Let’s move onto the Arkle
Hey lads. New to the site. Heres my thoughts on the Supreme Novices.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Favourite Cue Card looks very short here at under 3/1 in a race full of potential. Fair enough if you fancy Menorah for the Champion Hurdle(I don’t) you would be hopeful of a big run but he already looks to want further. Willie Mullins has been targetting Zaidpour at this for a while but again he might need further and doesnt hurdle with the fluency required for the pace they’ll go here(remember Dunguib last year). So Young would be of interest if rerouting here but looks like he is heading to the 2m5 race the following day. Of Nicky Hendersons two I think Barry may have picked the wrong one. While Spirit Son has been very impressive in both outings over hurdles they have been on very soft ground and he has to prove as effective on a quicker surface. Sprinter Sacre is the one I’d be most interested in. He has looked an awkward ride in his last 3 starts despite winning 2 quite easily(pulled hard throughout before quickening off a slow pace). He looks to posess plenty of speed though and as he has seemed in the past to want to go a bit faster the stronger pace he should get here can only help. Of the others Recession Proof is tough and genuine and comes the same route as Get Me Out Of Here last year. It should be borne in mind though that GMOOH won off a much higher mark and it looked a better race.
Selection: Sprinter Sacre @ 10/1
Backed al ferof ew last week at 141.
Will probably back cue card but not with a huge deal of confidence for some reason.
Just caught up with the whole of this thread; disappointed to read about Dunraven Storm, who I really fancied, although will probably risk an ew if he is running. On the subject of Nicky Hendersons bad record in the race, I tend to think of him as a trainer of hurdlers rather than chasers, and think of the Supreme as a race for future chasers [realise it’s not always the case]. Recession Proof is very fast aver 2 miles, but I’m going to check out a few with bigger prices. Mr Hales was at our Cheltenham preview and, although he said that Al Ferof is his best horse since One Man, he didn’t say he was a good thing for the Supreme [although I wouldn’t want to put anyone off the horse!]. He’s usually very honest about his horses chances, and I’d love to see Al Ferof win for him.
Very surprising Marsh Warbler goes for the harder race in the Supreme than Triumph, they must think a lot of this lad.
on Marsh Warbler, his part owner posted the following on the RP site :
Harder to win [the supreme than the triumph], but its a easier race for the horse physically. Lots of horses have hard races in the triumph and then dont progress the year after so we are thinking of the future as well as the present.
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PC
1/2 a furlong further, stiffer track (new course), and usually a bigger field? Probably more flat-bred speedsters, too.Supreme Novices
Rathlin
2pts ew @ 66/1 StanJames (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)
Really like this horse. He’s done all his running on heavy ground but his best performances have come on decent ground. He could be under rated due to his form on the ground in Ireland. He ran very close to Bobby Ewing in a 2 1/2 mile PTP on GF ground. Bobby Ewing is a 147 rated hurdler who beat Menorah but hasn’t been seen in quite a while. He looks a good horse. Rathlin must be better than the market suggests.
Philip Rothwell hasn’t got a great record at Cheltenham (0/16 Last 5 years) but this horse looks better than many he sent over. He reportedly scoped badly after his Clonmel race when Rothwells horses were all sick. He comes into this off a good win at Gowran and the ground will be just right for him.
Price too big to ignore.
In the general market because Cue Card is my Bismarck.
Supreme Novices
Rathlin
2pts ew @ 66/1 StanJames (1/4 Odds, 3 Places)
Really like this horse. He’s done all his running on heavy ground but his best performances have come on decent ground. He could be under rated due to his form on the ground in Ireland. He ran very close to Bobby Ewing in a 2 1/2 mile PTP on GF ground. Bobby Ewing is a 147 rated hurdler who beat Menorah but hasn’t been seen in quite a while. He looks a good horse. Rathlin must be better than the market suggests.
Philip Rothwell hasn’t got a great record at Cheltenham (0/16 Last 5 years) but this horse looks better than many he sent over. He reportedly scoped badly after his Clonmel race when Rothwells horses were all sick. He comes into this off a good win at Gowran and the ground will be just right for him.
Price too big to ignore.
In the general market because Cue Card is my Bismarck.
I like the horse as well but he needs to find massive improvement to finish in the first six let alone three. As far as I recall he wasn’t even favourite to win his maiden hurdle. Although Bobby Ewing did upset Menorah over a longer trip he wouldn’t have had the pace to finish anywhere near in a Supreme. I suspect Rathlin has gone over for the experience as he may one day return as a chaser. The stable have a much more realistic chance with Divine Rhapsody who can still be backed at 20/1.
I wouldn’t read too much into the betting for his maiden hurdle. How Sicilian Secret went off favourite ahead of him, I don’t know. Quicker ground and a stronger pace will play to his strengths but I’m surprised that Russell has stuck with Nolan’s horse, even if he did run well in the race last year.
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