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Sea of blue on Lah Ti Dar and a sea of red on Kew Gardens.
Lah Ti Dar is favourite now but it’s fairly narrowly. Kew Gardens is 9/4 in a place now.
Having backed La Ti Dar at 10/3 and Old Persian at 8/1, I’ll make a small profit if the filly wins and a decent profit if Old Persian wins. My Leger wins tend to come every third year, so after Capri last year, I am not really due again until 2020.
Anyone fancying La Ti Dar for the Arc will be concerned about the lack of Leger winners to go on and win the Arc. Almost kiss of death proportions.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Really looking forward to the race now that she’s running!
Into 15/8 Fav looks a bit short to me, think books will try and get her in the book come Saturday morning especially if there isn’t anymore rain.
Dee Ex Bee is 20/1 with Coral on odds-checker. Ladbrokes go 16/1.
Not much sign of a single figure price so far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Was it Dee Ex Bee’s true running at Goodwood.?
You never know with Johnston what is going on. It wouldn’t surprise me if the horse runs better than the last time and that 20/1 isn’t too bad really. I just can’t envisage him winning thoughCharles Darwin to conquer the World
If we don’t get any more rain Dee Ex Be won’t start quite as short (as I said, single figures with give in the ground) still wouldn’t put anyone off @ 20/1 even on good-firm.
Value Is EverythingWas it Dee Ex Bee’s true running at Goodwood.?
He ran right up to his best on Racing Post figures Nathan. In fact, the figure of 111 they gave him is his second best figure ever with them.
The problem was that he was awarded 119 for his Derby run and he’s looked to run below that since. Who is to say that he was actually that good that day? If you give him 111 for the Derby, he looks the model of consistency.
Argue the Derby form up all you want but it doesn’t change the fact that Masar simply hasn’t run again, Saxon Warrior ran at the trip again in the Irish Derby and was an expensive failure as Evens favourite, but he still ran better than Dee Ex Bee who was 7th. Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion went on to tackle shorter while Kew Gardens reinvented himself as a come from behind horse chasing Nelson’s pace setting.
Dee Ex Bee has to cope with a rejuvenated Kew Gardens, who has a pull at the weights with Old Persian now. Dee Ex Bee finished behind Old Persian in the Irish Derby and has work to do with him after the Godolphin colt narrowly outdid Cross Counter following that gelding fairly readily disposing of Dee Ex Bee on his previous start.
Neither Dee Ex Bee or Old Persian are guaranteed to get home based on breeding but the Godolphin runner has a 6/10 strike rate, compared to Dee Ex Bee on 2/11 and in addition the best of the two wins was a class 2 conditions race at Epsom, where he has run well three times.
All of the entrants also have to cope with Lah Ti Dar, who was confirmed late in the day. Interestingly the Racing Post describe Dee Ex Bee as unexposed despite him tying with Kew Gardens for the most starts in the race with eleven apiece. If he is unexposed then what about Lah Ti Dar?
Lah Ti Dar probably beat trees last time but she did tear them apart and could be anything. I feel that in coming here she isn’t perhaps Arc material. Maybe if Enable and Cracksman were not in the same stable it might be different but for me I wouldn’t my horse pitched in against those two. I backed La Ti Dar for the Oaks and feel she would have been there, or thereabouts. I felt she was worth a saver at 10/3 but at 7/4 or so I just wonder about real, competitive experience being lacking at such short odds.
Dee Ex Bee is lacking in enough reasons to play him, it’s been a long season for Kew Gardens and although he was on my radar early for this, I went with Nelson instead in the belief that it might be soft on the day and although he will be there, he’ll be there to make sure the dubious stayers get well tested.
No surprise if Lah Ti Dar proves a shade classier than the usual slightly sub standard contenders for this poor relation of the other Classics.
Stop Press:- I heard a rumour that Delano Roosevelt is being pencilled in for a potential clash with Mo Farah in next year’s London Marathon. Nelson will be running to try to knock the kick out of Farah.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Saved on Lah Ti Dar @ 7/2, but now trades under 2/1 and is favourite; imo that’s far too short. Very impressed with the Galtres victory, but faces a much better quality field. May well be the best quality horse running but has some stamina and (if it continues to firm up) ground doubts too.
Kew Gardens has gone out from 5/4 earlier in the week to almost 11/4 – drift was needed considering LTD and Loxley weren’t sure to run and KG wasn’t sure to be as effective on softer ground… But now looks as if it’ll be a sound surface; 11/4 is too big imo. Beaten less than 1 3/4 lengths in the Voltigeur whilst giving winner Old Persian two pounds, would’ve given him a lot more to do in the Voltigeur had he not been so tenderly handled/given too much to do; possibly due to some stablemates running poorly at that time and connections not wanting a hard race if he wasn’t 100%. Ballydoyle are now in fine form! Breeding, how they race and their race historys all point to KG being far more likely to be suited by this return to further than his “old” rival. Kew Gardens is proven at even further – won the Queens Vase by 4 1/2 lengths from Southern France. Latter never nearer and again last time out in only race since, the Group 3 St Leger Trial. 2 1/4 lengths behind Sunday’s short priced Irish St Leger favourite Flag Of honour. Southern France might surprise if the race is set up for him – beholden to how fast others go. Old Persian is by Dubawi out of a sister to Ribblesdale winner Silkwood. Despite a fast 12f pace Old Persian didn’t fully settle early at York and this will be slower still.
Prefer the Godolphin second string, Loxley. Like stablemate not sure to be suited by this trip. Seemed outstayed by Wells Farhh Go in Bahrain Trophy (13f), but that was still (up to then) his best performance and had given the winner enough rope that day. Back in distance, improved to win a pretty good French Group 2 against older horses at 12f. Coronation Cup runner-up Salouen beaten over two lengths. 10/1 not a bad price to take a chance on stamina. Coolmore have three other Voltigeur horses reopposing. Nelson is a better horse than able to show, trouble is odds are he’ll once again be sacrificed as pacemaker. Zabriske looked flattered by a staying on from the back of the field to take third in the Dante. The Pentagon was ante-post favourite for the Derby at one stage. Hasn’t lived up to that, but by Galileo and a half brother to Vadamar – a Group 2 winner at this trip in France. The Pentagon could improve here although 5 1/2 lengths may be too much to make up.
Proschema a good third off top weight (mark of 100) in the Melrose last time means isn’t far behind on ratings alone, but doubt he has the scope to improve. Raymond Tusk may be steadily progressive, but already beaten by Hamada when hampered in the Geoffrey freer. If Hamada can beat him Lah Ti Dar and co shouldn’t have too much of a problem. Maid Up sportingly supplemented and comes from an in form trainer. Can’t help feel she’s been added to field primarily because the yard had Horseplay for the Park Hill. Another steadily progressive sort. Didn’t need to improve to win a three runner Group 3 last time. Only defeat in last five starts when short head second to Pilaster penultimate efort. Pilaster should’ve done better in Park Hill yesterday. Not out of it, but connections will probably be happy with fifth.
I’ve said enough about my main bet, Dee Ex Bee.
Value Is EverythingGood right up Mark.
I’m on Dee Ex Bee at a rather skinny looking 10’s having backed him several weeks ago, I’m not quite as confident as you are that he’ll show significant improvement tomorrow but I haven’t given up on the bet for sure.
Like a few of us I took 7/2 on LTD earlier in the week, so sitting pretty now. I think this filly has a real touch of class that the rest of the field are lacking. The value has gone now as it’s a serious test for her but I’m confident she can do the business.
Nice work, Mark. I had a quick look at Dee Ex Bee earlier in the week but he didn’t look like getting his ground. Seems much more likely to now but on looking again he’s just been too disappointing lately for me to back him.
Not sure I agree that Proschema will struggle to find improvement. Change of tactics (or perhaps the horse dwelling) last time saw him run the best race of his career, and the ground, trip and long straight will suit him. AT his massive price (currently 110 on Betfair) I’d sooner go with him.
Fav seems very short for what she’s achieved and I suspect much of her price is down to who trains her. She has a dire Topspeed figure for tomorrow (Proschema is rated 8lbs better on TS). It’s an open race.
Am on LOXLEY at 10/1. I think the godolphin horses are pretty closely matched and if the front two under perform then this is the one!!
Is there something wrong with Kew Gardens?
5/4 earlier in the week, now out to 7/2. I know Lah Ti Dar and Loxley now run; so I’d expect a drift. But has he really got half the chance he did on Monday? No other horse has gone out that far.Value Is EverythingThe two class horses came to the front. Well done Kew Gardens backers (I had him as a part saver so don’t call myself as one). 7/2 was too big and shortened to 3/1 SP. Capri was an above average Leger winner and so too is this horse. Lah Ti Dar ran right up to her best, may do better for this experience but didn’t have as much pace as I’d expected. As expected Old Persian travelled well but didn’t stay. Southern France at last had a race run to suit and improved accordingly. Ground bordering on good-firm (time just 0.34 seconds off Racing Post Standard). My “value bet of the year” Dee Ex Bee might have done better than fourth with more rain, but still shortened up from 16/1 to 9/1 and beat all bar one of those I expected him to.
Value Is EverythingDee ex bee didnt exactly stay either ginge he was 1 and 1/4 ahead of a bunch of 6 and 9 lengths off the winner and yes he shortened before the off but you could have had him at whatever price you wanted in the last 24 hours
Lah ti dar wasnt experienced enough and her class probably got the distance more than anything, a certain group 1 winner in waitinf, the winner was excellent, southern france will be a gold cup horse for me, everything in behind, probably not proper group 1 quality at staying distances, afterall, a horse who hasnt won anything better than a class 2 was infront of them…
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