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Dee Ex Bee needs more than give in the ground, ham; he needs give in the ground and a test of stamina. Ran in the Chester Vase and got a strongly run race at 1 1/2 miles with give underfoot (a strong test of stamina for a three year old at that time of year) and produced (at that time) a career best effort. Then ran in the Derby and got another strongly run mile and a half with give underfoot and ran another career best… And has not had the same circumstances (together) – a strongly run mile and a half with give in the ground – since the Derby… And at last has the opportunity of racing over an even greater test of stamina and (hopefully) with give underfoot.
If reproducing the form that saw him 1 1/2 lengths second to Masar in THE DERBY it won’t a “piss poor renewal”. I’ve done some research in to Timeform ratings put up by the first three home in Group 1’s and found out the average St Leger winner puts up a Timeform rating 1 pound less than the average Derby runner-up. It could be this year’s Derby wasn’t quite up to an average renewal, but if so only by a pound or two, so can’t see that it’ll be a piss poor renewal he wins.
…And although of course it is nowhere near certain he’ll run to Derby form, there are reasons to believe Dee Ex Bee could return to his best or even (with the step up in trip sure to suit) improve on it.
…And we are talking about a horse who this morning was available @ 14/1. At that price a horse only needs to be believed better than a 6.7% chance to be a good bet. imo With give in the ground Dee Ex Bee has around a 15% chance (fair 11/2 shot).
Value Is EverythingYeah i dont disagree, but if lah ti dar and kew gardens do infact run, he will remain the price he is i think, that parts guesswork, his chance of winning isnt, ill be astounded if he can win this regardless of how poor it is, he has won, literally nothing.
He hasnt upheld the form from the derby ginge regardless of how you slice it, he hasnt a group win to his name, nor even a listed, the race at epsom just likely panned out well for him and not so well for others, just because he was 2nd in the derby doesnt mean hes entitled to be close in this regardless of what timeform say, reproducing the derby run also doesnt mean this would be a “better” renewal, as overall, it was a terribly poor derby with “most” horses not staying or handling the track. The winner may be a different animal altogether (i doubt it) but he has not had the chance to show that.
The horse needs about 4 miles and a fence, not 14.5f, if the field lines up as is, he should be no less than 20/1
He hasnt upheld the form from the derby ginge regardless of how you slice it, he hasnt a group win to his name, nor even a listed,
Thought I explained that he hasn’t “upheld the form” because he hasn’t had the same/advantageous circumstances he had that day.
It is the rating put up by Dee Ex Bee in the Derby that gives him a chance, ham. That form is far better than many rivals have put up in winning group and listed races. Winning form is not neccessarily better form.
just because he was 2nd in the derby doesnt mean hes entitled to be close in this
It does when the horse is all about stamina.
The horse needs about 4 miles and a fence, not 14.5f,
And yet he was 1 1/2 lengths second in the 1 1/2 miles Group 1 Derby. LOLreproducing the derby run also doesnt mean this would be a “better” renewal, as overall, it was a terribly poor derby with “most” horses not staying or handling the track.
Roaring Lion has improved since Epsom and Saxon Warrior may or may not have acted/stayed (didn’t do any better in the Irish Derby so I think he acted well enough at Epsom) – just didn’t stay. When horses don’t stay in the Derby they don’t just stop. The form they ran to was still reasonable (the overall time tells us that). I don’t measure Dee Ex Bee’s rating on what Roaring Lion became. But whatever you might think of what was behind the horse on the day; Dee Ex Bee is (under suitable conditions) only a 1 1/2 lengths worse horse than Masar. If thinking Dee Ex Bee was flattered in relation to the winner then why? There must be a reason, if there is no reason then he can not be flattered.
How many St Leger rivals would’ve been capable of running Masar to 1 1/2 lengths? imo Only Kew Gardens, Lah Ti Dar and perhaps Old Persian – and even if Lah Ti Dar does run both she and the Godolphin horse are nowhere near as likely to stay than Dee Ex Bee.
Value Is EverythingLike i said you can come at it from any angle that you want, but as a 2yo or a 3yo hes yet to win a listed/group race, that alone is a worry regardless of where hes ran to, he reminds me of us army ranger, talented on his day but utterly useless at the same time, the form of the derby “over the derby trip” is rank rotten, infact ill go as far to put a small stat to it, of that derby, every horse who then ran again at 12f lost, only kew gardens has prevailed since, every other horse who didnt retry 12f was immediately dropped back in trip, that alone also tells you, that dee ex bee was by far more suited to the derby than Any other Apart from masar, who for obvious reasons is incomparable and that also the derby form alone can only now be upheld by masar, everything in behind was either running a distance they were not suited by, or simply isnt good enough at group 1 level over 12f, which is the category dee ex bee falls into. The best of a bad bunch of 12f horses and non stayers at epsom
Dee ex bee, is not running against horses that are Not suited By the trip this weekend, if something on saturday does not improve enough to beat him, it would be a weak renewal on all known evidence.
For me anyway its a match race between old persian and southern france, if lah ti dar does reroute and run, then goodnight boys.
The issue i have with getting to involved with fancying AOB’s for the race right now is OOSG possibly not being right and not running in the Irish SL. If he doesn’t run next in the market for him is Idaho, now he is down to run on Friday, and has a favourites chance of winning, albeit at G2 level, surely he goes there. Leaving AOB with one or two of his English Leger horses likely to be rerouted there, especially since he has the warm fav Kew Gardens.
I would be considering Southern France for this race as well, as he they’ve not pushed him too hard as yet, and he is still very unexposed. My worry is he could still stay in Ireland so i will wait for the decs until punting him.
There’s a chance La Ti Dar (7/2),Loxley (8/1), Latrobe (9/1) + a few of the O’Brien contingent don’t go here on Saturday, and for that fact alone, Dee Ex Bee is likely to be shorted come off time. Never mind the weather forecasts, which are a gamble themselves!
I am happy to discount Raymond Tusk and anything bigger in the market.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Frankie seemed keen on Lah Ti Dar running here so must think she has every chance of staying.
As long as she’s switched off her class would carry her into the race.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Good point about the O’Brien horses, Jack. Suspect it’ll be Flag Of Honour that stays in Ireland
tbh Even with the stamina doubt about Lah Ti Dah she’s worth a saver.EDIT: What!!! Make that “was”. Just seen, I had a 15 quid matched @ 7/1 at 1:34pm today and now she’s 3.8/1. LOL
I guess the decision’s been made.
Value Is EverythingBloody hell Nathan, you’re quick.
I posted that, read it back, saw I somehow said you, immediately pressed edit. And you saw it before I could change it.Value Is EverythingI dont think theyll be too much rerouting jack, FOH will run in ireland with delano and the pentagon probably
Cant see it being too drastic imo both coolmore and godolphin will send everything they can to this. Lah ti dar is the one who will push the price of dee ex bee out if she runs
I think Kew Gardens will drift, aswell as Old Persian, Latrobe and Loxley won’t run… And even with Lah Ti Dar running if good ground or softer Dee Ex Bee will shorten to at least single figures and probably just as short as Old Persian.
Value Is EverythingI’m expecting a drift for Kew Gardens too.
I’m waiting on the ground with him and the possibility of Lah Ti Dar running before a bet on the race.
This race rarely gets the ‘classy’ type of 3 year old at the top level so LTD running would be an interesting runner. I’ll back her if she runs for sure.
weather still about the same 8mm due over next two days, then looks like next to nothing leading up to race
Yeah nwalton on metoffice it seems some overnight rain tonight, then dry and temps of upto 17 on the run up to the Leger…..G/S or better?
If Lah Ti Dar goes she wins. Just awkward not having a clue on whether that happens.
Ham, if Lah Ti Dar runs it definitely won’t only be Dee Ex Bee going out in price. She’d be put in probable favourite shifting the market quite a lot.
Having just stumbled across AOBs St Leger quotes in the Irish Field, it does seem Flag Of Honour would be his likeliest runner.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Yeah she will be fav, was just referring to dxb as thats who i was quoting
Yeah FOH will be his main hope in ireland and the market pointed to that shortening from 10/1 into 5/2 or whatever he is now after what AOB said
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