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I dont think Nickname will act around Chelts, soft ground or not. Well Chief for me.<br>I am getting quite concerned though that I am fancying too many favourites. I cleaned up in 2003 when I landed a lucky 63 with 5 favs, but that was an exceptional year. Can it happen again?<br>Anyone else have this concern?
- Total Posts 170
Don’t get me started on 2003 again…heady days!!
Must admit, I am having the same problem this year. A lot of the value seems to have gone in races and the bookmakers do not seem to be offering too many tempting prices. I would not be surprised to see a lot bigger value on the day then has been available this week on lots of the favourites.
As far as favourites go, there are a lot of short prices about if you can pick the right one for the accumulator. I.e. Denmen, Kauto Star, Gungudu, Aran concerto, Wichita Lineman, Well chief, are all smaller then 2/1 and when you chuck in, Detroit City (9/4), Ameratto Rose (generally 3’s), Monet’s Garden (7/2), Fair along and MWDS (Both under 7/2), Whyso Mayo (9/4), Lounas (7/2) BLK and nglis Drever (both under 100/30) and 3 horses both 7/2 for the cross country.
(so we have 6 favourites lower then 2/1, and 11 horses (for 8 races lower then 7/2)
Are bookmakers getting tighter with their odds or is it just me?? That is 14 of the races out of 24 we have AT least one horse below 7/2??
Sorry to go off on one on the thread but I think a lot of the prices are to short for such a competitive meeting.
- Total Posts 170
Tight as a ducks backside is something that comes to mind…
Simon Holt after the last…
…he’s jumped them into the ground…I’m looking for the nearest rival behind and I’m using binoculars…and it’s Monet’s Garden being eased down…WHAT a performance…Dobbin’s looking round to see a rather tired Sporazene just clearing the last…Well Chief pulls up, he’s had enough, he’s bounced…the rest nowhere….and its all Cumbrian raider Monet’s Garden, coming to the line imperiously…go form an orderly queue with your friendly bookmaker…the galloping grey jumps like a stag to win the Champion…its…
Cut to picture of smiling racegoer in blue trilby.
- Total Posts 170
Sorry, but still think he will run in the Ryanair…
For me this is turning into the most competitive race of the festival. A couple of weeks ago i was saying Well Chief was my banker but looking into it deep down, we don’t know how VPU would have faired if he hadn’t unseated Choc, and don’t forget VPU’s win in the Arkle last year a very hot race with a solid form look to it and in a very good time.
We don’t know how Nickname will act round Chelters but soft will help and although the form might not have a great look to it, he can only beat what he is put against and do it easily as he has been doing this season.
It’s going to be a great race and at this point, i won’t be having a bet in it.
Quote: from trackside528 on 7:13 pm on Mar. 9, 2007[br]Nickname is an admirably consistent sort, but he has really been beating very little (Central House is a pale shadow of the horse he was last year).. furthermore, I don’t even think Martin Brassil thought they would be running in this race for much of the year, so, naturally, hoovered up any and all 2m chase opportunities.. lastly, I’ll be shocked if he comes up the hill stronger than the likes of Well Chief or Voy Por Ustedes.. basically it all adds up to a decent lay (probably just before the race as he is getting hammered in the ring)..
Nickname is a very good horse chaser and was a very good hurdler. I saw him win on his debut in Ireland when he beat Our Ben. Never saw a horse to handle abysmal conditions as well and I wouldnt lay him even against well chief who I think is brilliant while the ground is bad.
Voy Por Ustedes is overrated in my opinion and even if he is not, he wont be as effective on soft ground. If I were a laying man, this is the one I would lay.
New Mill would also be better on good ground IMO
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SHL
I think you’re badly mistaken. The ground is not going to be bottomless and it really would have to be for Nickname to win.
I could not take such a short price about Well Chief. He brilliantly beat an average field last time. He may bounce. He may not quite be good enough anymore. He may win by a mile.
I just think that at the odds the current champion NEWMILL is a bit of value. He runs in this race as the going is likely to be soft rather than heavy. He’s in wonderful form too judging by his recent top class hurdles win.
And the guy who said Sporazene for second was having a laugh …. wasn’t he ?!?!?!?!?
11 left in the champion with the most notable absente being Sporazene. River City looks to have good e.w value.
<br>1 /32-12 Ashley Brook (IRE) <br>2 B-U4U1 Dempsey (IRE)<br>3 2-13P2 Justified (IRE) <br>5 -54244 Mister McGoldrick <br>6 11-4F1 Newmill (IRE) <br>7 141111 Nickname (FR) <br>8 U-9320 Oneway (IRE) <br>9 P1-343 River City (IRE) <br>10 044792 Sybellius D’artaix (FR) <br>11 12-21U Voy Por Ustedes (FR) <br>12 1221/1 Well Chief
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Ground will surely not be soft enough for Nickname.
Three horse race – Well Chief, Voy Por Ustedes and Newmill.
These three are way above the others just a case of choosing the right one.
Nickname is not good enough and surely will be a non runner? Its a case of how far he wins for Well Chief.
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