The opinion poll method

[Anonymous]

Hello

Are some of you familiar with this subject ?
There used to be a UK tipster service 9-10 years ago operating on this principle.
The idea is to create a table with the day’s predictions from all major national sources. When those predictions are added together and when the proper statistical method has been used to identify the correct form of the addition law, the reeult is a super-tipster, better than the best of the tipsters in the original table of entrants.
If you can help me with data sources I can show you how.

It’s no great fun, you end up betting on numbers and names.
No speeds, no pedigrees, no going parameters – all the stuff you know so well and makes the other guys feel respect for you.
But it’s a strong method.

[Hatter]

Tried a similar type a few years ago

Used the majority selection from RP & surely all these learned journos would fill my pockets

There we have it with the word "Journo’s" – not punters
Emptied me pockets

Good luck if you can make it work
Hatter

[Anonymous]

Hello

I stated what that does.
I did not say it puts you in the black or not.
Most people don’t like the method for the other reason I also stated.
Also how do you know the bookies are not already doing it ?
By the time you and I get to say "hello" to each other, if we do, the bookies have already hired 1000 assistants to study the phenomenon.
Nevertheless I remain curious to apply the method and also
most of those folks who advertise don’t know maths and use amateur methods. But I am a mathematician.

[Anonymous]

Everything has to do with p-r-i-c-e-s.
I used to win some trifectas of the order of 100:1, in the early days of the trifecta.
Those were results of the type [abc], [acd] and [adb], where a-b-c-d are the regular chances.
Nowadays you ‘ll be lucky if one of those pays you 20:1.

Why ?
Because people did n’t know the mechanics.
Also we did not have computer terminals, or rather we had only the first shipment of those, working at a few places around the racetrack. So you had to stand on queue and only some youths were doing that, not the pro-gamblers.

[Hatter]

Hi Frodo

Bit confused here
Whats the point of offering a system if it does not put you in the black ? I could give out loads of red ones
I bow to your maths skills from my gcse c grade but your english is not coming across well.

Are you suggesting that you gather in the 4 most popular tips in a race then trifectarise them ?
Not sure if there is a database available that backtracks tips & their outcome

I’ll stick to me

All the best with it

[Anonymous]

Hi Frodo

Bit confused here
Whats the point of offering a system if it does not put you in the black ? I could give out loads of red ones
I bow to your maths skills from my gcse c grade but your english is not coming across well.

Are you suggesting that you gather in the 4 most popular tips in a race then trifectarise them ?
Not sure if there is a database available that backtracks tips & their outcome

I’ll stick to me

All the best with it

Hello

I know it’s a bit confusing.
It’s like this:
One apple plus one apple does n’t equal two apples.
But often it equals one and a half apple.

But sometimes also one apple plus one apple makes one apple.
If you are the national tipster and I follow every word you say and tell my friends then some will think we are two people. But we ‘re not. We are one people !

If I have the data I can compute likely trifectas also if I want and tetracast also and the french quenzier.

But how can I tell if is in the black or if it is in the red without data and without measurements ?
As I said it’s a proven strong method but the "opposition" is also strong – in the sense that they tend to underpay you.

In case anyone is really interested and wants to get involved, let me also say that this may be considered as a somewhat irregular thing to do in certain quarters, because of copyright laws.
Although I do not want to breach the copyrights of anything, from the moment I write on a piece of paper two names and two predictions without express permit, I might be accused of doing it. Some people circumvent this by writing "source A" and "source B".

The method of combining forecasts is widely used in risk theory, in the elections and also in weather prediction.

I like writing about these things. The moment I have access to data I can also produce results. I know it’s difficult and perhaps impossible because the data are not easy to collect.
Several years ago I had a small database, obtained from somewhere and I also had a couple of journalists who helped, but it was n’t for UK.

[Author]

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