June 6, 2019 at 01:32 #1444696
Okay it’s not really a sport, I’m not actually sure what it is to be honest, apart from a complete
bloody mess. Nonetheless it’s an opportunity for a punt so here goes. Firstly I’ll put my hands up
and say I’m not a conservative supporter, in fact I’m finding it very hard to be a supporter of any
of them. That said, when I look at the prospective horses waiting to burst out of their stables,
there’s only one person who has in any way seemed credible and comes across with any statesman like
qualities, and it’s Rory Stewart. It’s not a word I associate with politicians, but dare I say he comes across as “genuine”. He has quite a diverse political background and he’s certainly no stranger
to diplomacy, have a look on Wikipedia if you’re interested, and he may just have slipped under the
radar before the tapes have been raised. The front runners, Johnson, Gove and Hunt I wouldn’t trust
as far as I could spit, not that that would necessarily stop them, and Andrea Leadsom leaves me cold.
He’s 25/1 and I think that’s worth a a couple of quid. He’s the only one that’s said what would seem to be bleeding obvious, in that there’s not a hope in hell of having, as some have said, of a new
deal in place before October. So much for the would be deal “one of the easiest in human history” as
touted by Liam Fox. Anyway enough of my ranting. Any takers for this oneJune 9, 2019 at 23:24 #1444963
Red Rum 77Participant
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I checked out Rory Stewart and he’s currently 28/1 Bet 365 to be next Prime Minster, and also leader of the Tory Party. Not really to my liking to bet on things which deal in matters of opinion rather than racing where the winner is usually first past the line, but according to a news article on my iPod touch he’s currently tied with Boris Johnson in the polls, and Boris attitude to Brexit might be his undoing.June 10, 2019 at 00:43 #1444965
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I can’t stand Rory Stewart but he’s clearly being significantly boosted by the media currently. Got way more coverage than other Conservatives from his wing of the party such as Hancock. No way in which a Conservative Party membership could vote for him principally for the reason that he isn’t close to being one. When asked why he wasn’t a Labour party member he could only muster up something about sheep farmers in Cumbria (whom he wants to protect with severe tariffs) and being proud of his country. Hardly a ringing endorsement of his Conservative credentials then.
Think the leadership race is best thought of as 2 brackets which can be crudely defined as “Wets” versus “Dries”. I would class Raab, McVey, Boris and Leadsom as the Dries. The remainder as the Wets although I don’t know enough about Mark Harper to place him on the the spectrum. Imagine Boris will win amongst the Dries especially since he’s been building a decent coalition this weekend. The endorsement of Baker should prevent him losing too much ERG types to Raab and can’t see him not finishing in the top 2.
Working out who will come out on top for the “Wet” side of the draw is much more difficult. Gove, Hunt and Javid would appear the main 3 (Gyimah is running to “broaden the debate” for example). Hancock is 6 endorsements off Javid who I assumed would do better. Plenty of people are uncommitted currently. Also worth noting there was chatter on Twitter about Stewart running to attack Boris so that Gove doesn’t have to directly. Both of them have ties to the same Thinktank but that’s just gossip currently.
Leadsom is a terrible price as she has fewer endorsements than Mark Harper (Yes I don’t know him either). Raab is miles ahead currently yet is available at 40/1 compared to Leadsom’s 8/1. Neither will have much hope against Boris on that side of the draw but Raab is probably a viable bet at those prices (can imagine the Wets would rather destroy the party than let him get within a whisker of Number 10, mind).
Kicking myself for missing the price on Boris and think Raab is the only viable bet at these prices. Won’t be touching the market now. When this market gets settled, I’d be interested in seeing the price for Farage but I’ll leave that for another day.June 10, 2019 at 02:08 #1444966
@thekryptonfactor Re Rory Stewart
No way in which a Conservative Party membership could vote for him principally for the reason that he isn’t close to being one
You may have a point there Krypton, that’s probably why I’ve taken to himJune 16, 2019 at 20:35 #1445538
I don’t know who watched the leaders debate on Channel 4 tonight, but if it had
been a horse race then Stewart was home and hosed and tucked up in his stable
before the others had crossed the line. Boris was no doubt advised to try and
avoid any media coverage whilst he’s cruising to a victory, and he probably is,
but he’s going to have to be up to the questioning on Tuesday if he doesn’t want
to lose ground. I hope Rory gets through this round so that he gets a further
opportunity to hold Boris to account. I still think Boris will get the keys to
No 10, even though I think his offer to raise the tax barrier from £50,000 to
£80, for high earners was nothing short of blatant bribe. If Boris does get
PM, and I think he will, I do worry for this country. What will happen when
he gets to the final date without a deal, and he won’t get a deal, is going
to cause even more problems than we have now. I don’t think parliament will
agree to a no deal, which brings in the possibility of him considering
prorogation. I can see people taking to the streets if that happens. I don’t
want Brexit, but it has to be done and it needs to be done by someone that
can achieve it with the UK still having channels for trade otherwise it will
cost this country dear. Stewart was right, this leadership battle has all been
about machismo and trying to show how strong and determined you are. I think
he’s the only one that has been honest and realistic, and that’s coming
from someone who would not vote for a Conservative Government.
On the betting front, he’s down to 12/1 now.June 17, 2019 at 06:41 #1445583
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If Stewart somehow beats Boris I’ll be lumping on Farage for this market seconds after he walks into Number 10.June 17, 2019 at 11:51 #1445596
Much as I’d like it Krypton, I don’t think there is much chance of Stewart seeing Boris off.
I think there will be plenty of promises behind closed doors to try and have him out of the
picture, perhaps even before Tuesday’s live TV showdown. I think Stewart would make it an
uncomfortable night for Boris, I hope he gets the chance. I think he (Stewart) would be a
shoo-in if it were down to a public vote. If they can think beyond Brexit, he’s the only
candidate that would bring in voters from other parties who wouldn’t normally consider
voting for the Tories. As an individual I prefer him to Corbin and I’m not sure who will
step up to the plate for the Lib Dems when Cable goes next month. Problem is it’s all about
Brexit, and the men in grey suits want Boris, so that’s where we’re headed. I’ve had a run
for my money, but I think that’s all I’ll get unless Boris gets the chance to really put his
foot in it. I think they’ll pretty much have him wrapped in cotton wool as much as they can
to ensure that doesn’t happen.
He’s still blue on Oddschecker, as short as 9/1 now. I’ll keep my fingers crossed but I think
the die is cast.June 18, 2019 at 17:36 #1445805
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I was marginal on the vote but why do people still actually believe we need trade agreements to get “channels to trade”
USA? China?June 18, 2019 at 19:08 #1445820
It’s not the case that we couldn’t trade without trade agreements in place Clive, it’s just that
without them we are going to be so worse off. If that wasn’t the case then why even bother trying
to get trade deals set up, which every government has done. I don’t think I’ve heard anyone, the
occasional loon aside, in government or from any side of the house state that we would be better
off without a deal. Even Boris says he doesn’t want a no deal, even although he knows he won’t get
a new deal through by the 31st October, so we will be leaving with no deal unless parliament can
Most of the trade deals we have in place with Europe are common trade agreements are of the
preferential and free trade types, in order for us to be able to deal with others and to cut, reduce
or eliminate tariffs or quotas and to get from A to B without restricting the movement of goods. So
I’m not saying it couldn’t be done, we could and would have to use WTO trade rules, but without trade
deals in place, it will slow things down and will financially hurt us, and financial services and
businesses are rightly concerned.
You’re right Clive, the USA and China are important markets, and Trump has said we could have “a great
trade deal” between us. I’m just not sure that I want to hang my hat on Trump, who has made it clear that “America comes first” being the basis for our future financial stability. In any case, it doesn’t have
to be an either or, we should be looking for good trading agreements from Europe and elsewhere.
I started this thread off because of the betting market on the next PM, but it seems to have gone down a
road I wasn’t expecting. My apologies for boring the pants off of anyone who’s been unfortunate enough
to venture in here.
On the betting front, Stewart has got through the 2nd cut and will be in the live TV debate tonight
at 8pm on BBC. He’s as low as 6/1 in a place, although still plenty 8s, but again I’ll state that I
think this is only Boris’s to lose and it’s going to take the mother of all F%*k ups by him to keep
him out of No.10June 20, 2019 at 12:29 #1446136
Oh well, Boris it is then. Full steam ahead Captain, there aren’t any icebergs around
here….are there ?July 13, 2019 at 18:48 #1448556
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I didn’t realise Rees-Mogg was too junior for the post, but I thought if you’re going to pick a Tory PM, by definition a profoundly-delinquent citizen (together with Labourites for different reasons – all power people), why not go for an appropriately-untrusted and untrue delinquent from a Tory ‘grandee’ backgrond. Young Rees-Mogg really looks the part. (I half-expect Boris to take a conker out of his pocket and loudly challenge all-comers with their presumed conkers, claiming that his is a ‘lardee 15!’).
I got some more nice prices about him, but again wishful thinking. At least it transpires that young Gauff did excel against an unstoppable force of nature. I believe young Halep cracks walnuts with her biceps.
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