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Time to start some serious punting, I usually start the Jumps Season proper with a hundred point (or £1000) kitty, between the winnings from my summer bets an the bet365 competition winnings I’ve got an extra eighty points (£800) this winter. On one hand, the way my selections went in the later part of the summer I might need that extra cushion, on the other I’ve got no room for excuses if it all goes belly up.
I’ve always considered the opening salvo very important, if only for the confidence I get from being in the black.
I’ve posted my “NH Notebook” in the “Trends, Research & Notebooks” section and THE REAL ARTICLE is the first horse to run from that notebook, he goes in a novice hurdle at Listowel tomorrow,
Racing Post tissue price is 9/4, I’d be more than delighted with that! If he’s half the horse he’s looked in Bumpers he’ll only need to jump as well as Dunguib to keep his 100% record, he ran in a big field on his debut so that shouldn’t be a problem, the going is softer than he’s encountered so far and he was taken out of a QR race recently when the ground deteriorate but I can’t see Eddie O’Grady risk him if the ground isn’t right.
Final decision tomorrow once I’ve watched one of today’s hurdle races at Listowel and seen how the ground looksTHE REAL ARTICLE
After considering the going and the form of the second fav, I’d convined myself I’d get 2-1, and as Eddie O’Grady surely wouldn’t risk such a good horse if there was any likelyhood of a fall the bet I’d intended was £100 EW i.e. £60 risked (he’s not going to be out of the 1-2-3) for a potential profit of £240, effectively £60 win at 4-1. That’s what I would have called value.
That option is gone as the odds on offer right now are 6-4 at best, and I think these are now likely to shrink as 5-4 is the general early price.
Therefore £50 win @ 6/4, best odds bet placed which I think, on the bare form of the main contenders in the race, is poor value. ….especially when I’d envisaged 4-1 to my money!!!
Just arrived home as the race started, bet well and truly screwed up, should have waited for the 2-1 (4-1 to my money)
Still, a winner with first bet of the season sets a standard and despite the staking error, it’s better than a poke in the eye with a burnt stick.
Mark my words, he’s a hell of a horse, that was a decent field and he won very cosily and more importantly, jumped very well
NH Proper + £100
CS,
Very impressive performance, considering it was his first time over hurdles, I think he prefers better ground, but certainly one to follow in the novice hurdling ranks.
JohnJ
Just a word of warning if anyone’s planning an ante-post bet.
EOG apparently sees him more as an Aintree horse than a Cheltenham horse. Obviously a lot of water to go under the bridge before the spring.
He looks a really serious racehorse, I wondered if he’d go QR and November Handicap then take a break. I’d agree about better ground but he was spring heeled today. Before the race I was concerned because he missed a QR recently because of the ground
I don’t bet Ante Post but wherever he goes he’s going to take a lot of beating.
It’s a bit soon to get carried away but I keep thinking "Golden Cygnet", it would be wonderful if Eddie O’Grady had unearthed one who could be mentione in the same sentance as him.
He was the finest hurdler I’ve ever seen, God rest his soul, can’t think of him without a tear welling up
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Golden Cygnet? Really?
He won his bumpers well, there’s no doubting that, but he beat absolutely nothing; of the twelve horses to have finished either 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th in those three races, only one has won since (Khorun, who wouldn’t have left Charlie Swan if he was any good, won a poor novice hurdle at Southwell for Tim Vaughan and was turned over at 6/4 next time out) and just two have won at all.
I’ll oppose him all day long in decent novice company.
Golden Cygnet? Really?
He won his bumpers well, there’s no doubting that, but he beat absolutely nothing; of the twelve horses to have finished either 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th in those three races, only one has won since (Khorun, who wouldn’t have left Charlie Swan if he was any good, won a poor novice hurdle at Southwell for Tim Vaughan and was turned over at 6/4 next time out) and just two have won at all.
I’ll oppose him all day long in decent novice company.
If they weren’t both trained by EOG I wouldn’t have made the "comparison" and it did involve some major crystal ball gazing.
That said, and much as I loved the late GC, of the two, The Real Article has made the much more impressive start to his career.
Golden Cygnet’s form figures before The Supreme were
1disq,3,Last,O,7.1,1,1 first two runs in Bumpers.With regards to TRA, I wouldn’t lay him with your money, AJ, I know what I saw yesterday, if he gets beat in a novice hurdle this season then there’s one thing I’m sure of, the horse to do it has yet to run over hurdles.
Of those with Bumper form but as yet untried over hurdles, only Tus Nua, Cue Card, and the injured Colonel Mortimer are even on the horizon and so far none of these have proved they can jump. Winning pointer Fiddlededee is rumoured to be a bit special but he’ll need to be to get anywhere near the above four and, while I expect Prospect Wells to make a very useful hurdler …. back him against TRA???… as we say up here, "Aye, That’ll be right!"
.PS Edit : Better add Hidden Universe to the Bumper winners above, don’t know how I forgot him, he’ll be added to my "Notebook" at the next edit
No bets today but ROSS BAY does look tempting in the last at Listowel.
She’s looked very promising in her first two runs but there are a few reasons I won’t back her today.
While she does look like a very safe EW bet, one non runner and they’ll only be two places, I’m not a fan of the stable, I don’t like backing against Nina Carberry in Bumpers and the filly has looked as if she’ll be better on good ground.
Others might wan’t to review her first two runs and make their own decision, I certainly wouln’t want to put anyone off her but I’m very selective with my NH bets at this time of the year.Correct decision re The Bumper, she ran well though and at the opening show of 4-1 before the withdrawl was good ew value.
Second runner from my notebook tomorrow. LOOSEN MY LOAD who couln’t have been more impressive when landing his debut chase at Punchestown from a ver useful field. Riden with supreme confidence, he never touched a twig. I thought he looked as if he’d be a lot happier going left handed.
Although he takes on some useful seasoned chasers on what is only his second chase, if what I’ve always thought is correct, that he’d turn out to be a real RSA and Gold Cup contender, then he’d have to be a really good thing tomorrow with the weight consessions in his favour.
Henry De Bromhead was quoted last season as saying he’s ahead of Sizing Europe at the same stage in their careers. This is probably a stiffer task on his second race that Sizing Europe faced on his second chase but this horse has always looked an out and out chaser in the making while Sizing Europe at this age had always looked proper hurdler rather than a potential top grade chaser, that is before his spectaculat first season over fences.Racing Post Analysis (Quote) "This was a proper beginners´ chase run at a real gallop and saw a fine chasing debut from LOOSEN MY LOAD. Content to sit a dozen or so lengths off the front-running runner-up, he jumped superbly once getting into a rhythm, gradually closed the gap onthe leader inside the final half-mile or so and, once getting there, he went on in good style to score well. Comparisons are bound to be made with Sizing Europe, who won the race last year. Loosen My Load jumps like an athlete and has a terrific engine but is likely to be more of a staying type than his stable companion. However, the way he travelled and jumped left the impression he has every chance of being among the leading novice chasers later in the season."
Stake will depend on the price on offer.
£80 Win LOOSEN MY LOAD
If my bet365 competition Free bets come through in time I’ll go in for more……Cormack?
Oh Dear, the lay of the day Deutschland has been withdrawn
That leaves Loosen My Load at very prohibative odds, I got 10/11 but the rule 4 is going to knock a real hole in those odds4/5 with Skybet if anyone has a skybet account and is quick, 4/9, 2/5 elsewhere
Pity about the eventual price but that’s 2 out of 2 so far from my "2010-11 NH Notebook"
What a horse Loosen My Load looks, he put some useful experienced chasers well and truly to the sword without even breaking sweat.
He looked every inch the star chaser of the future that he looked the day he won his first Bumper.
He looks a very safe conveyance and the RSA looks a very distinct possibilty even at this time of year and I think we’ve seen a couple of real stars at Listowel this week.New NH Season Profit £150.92 after rule 4 adjustment
Only one entry catches the eye today, FERRIS BULLER at Listowel but he’s not guaranteed a run as he’s first reserve so this might be Ferris Beuller’s Day Off.
Worth keeping an eye on though, the form of his point is working out nicely and if he gets a run today he will surely go close
Once the NH season gets underway I try to find the time to draw up a rough short list of the following weeks possible bets.
Here’s next week’s provisonal contenders, comments, both negative and positive, appreciated and very welcome
MONDAY
WESTMEATH
CORKONIAN
ESSEX
HEAD OF THE POSSETUESDAY
ROCK NOIR
ROCKS RULETHURSDAY
PEPE SIMO
ROCKS RULESome decent horses turn out at Ballinrobe today
In the first,WESTMEATH
could turn out to be a bit special, he was described by Paul Nolan as “The nicest young horse I´ve had in a good while” With a point win and a bumper win from his only two starts, he can make it three out of three under Paul Carberry
CORKONIAN
has been off the course for some time but anything near the form of his second to Luska Lad will be enough to win this, Ruby Walsh booked
In the novice chases,HEAD OF THE POSSE
and
ESSEX
, two top grade hurdlers jump of the page.
Head Of The Posse is not far short of Graded level over the smaller obstacles and he is too good a horse not to have been well schooled for his fencing debut.
Essex reached a hurdle rating today’s opposition can only dream about and his jumping while winning his first chase impressively at Listowel was flawless. Though I’d normally stay well clear of a 10-Y-O novice chaser he looks to have found a new lease of life over fences.
Although the prices of the first three are disappointing, it would be a suprise if any fail to make the frame. I fancy then in order of running with Westmeade my best bet, although the price is too skinny for a decent wager, so I’ll start the day off with a £1 EW Yankee and an extra £1.50 EW Acc and £5 treble on the first three
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