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Well Gordon and Ginger I would be happy to give both of you 10/1 about 1000 quid a piece that neither Junior or Harry The Viking start fav in the Scotty Brand Handicap Chase
My idea and I confess I don’t have a clue.
ANQUETTA 3/1
DOESLESSTHANME 7/2
KUDU COUNTRY 11/2
Old Crick 12/1
14/1 bar
I do think Harry The Viking should start favourite up at Ayr HGM.
So does every other bookie in the country that has him at the head of their AP lists
Well, you did ask HGM.What I will say is take a look at the 2:40 at Newbury tomorrow. Sans Loi will not start anywhere near the 20/1 currently available with Bet 365. Should start around half those odds.
Value Is EverythingI find Bet 365 hard to fathom. They often have the wrong prices but they seem to compensate by restricting anyone who wins to less than 50p stakes. I am amazed that Kingfisher and Ginger apparently can get meaningful amounts on.
By the way, whisper it softly but there is a massive trifecta rollover on the Scottish GN on Saturday, a result of the real GN trifecta not being fully won. Ironically if anyone on here had followed Ginge’s advice they would have had a good chance of selecting the winning three in the GN.
Unfortunately the trifecta rollover seems to be fully discovered so it is a bit like the jackpot, with money flowing in (often in the last 5 minutes) from professional punters to about the level at which the tote takeout equals the amount rolled over.
Why do I get the impression this forum is a soap box?
Too many on here wish you were a bookie with the rubbish books you post Ginger………gawd help any bookie who employed you to make up a book he in the grubber in a week.
Identified Neptune Collonges as the best value bet in the Grand National HGM. Can’t get them all right.
You don’t seem to understand my books are to
100%
(no bookies mark up). They’re also
not
what I think the odds
will be
. They’re certainly
not
a betting
forcast
like you’d see in the Racing Post. They’re what
I believe the fair odds are
. You should
not
see them as a
prediction of bookmakers
odds. I’m happy with a 54/1 winner now and again.
And my thread shows a healthy profit thank you very much. So my books can’t be too bad HGM. As to your question. Why do I get the impression this forum is a soap box?
I was answering a question posed by Corm.Why are you boasting about having a 54/1 winner?…….just what odds did you get after you deduct the other bets….around 9/4 I believe on the win market? You actually did much better on the place market as you had only one bet and got 7.6/1
Can you actually make up a book off your own back Ginge which would be anywhere near the starting prices on the day.
For example can you give the Scotty Brand Handicap Chase at Ayr an Saturday a try and have it up by the end of racing today?….there will be non runners but I’m just wondering if you would have the faintest idea which horses would start favorites and in what order if you didn’t have the RP as a guide.
I certainly couldn’t just wondering if you could
On the win bets the return was approx 13/8.
On the win bets the return was approx 13/8.
How did you work that out EF?
Value Is EverythingNo idea, just checked and its 2/1 as near as you can make it.
466/154 and if you take off the Betfair commission a bit less.
Something to do with adding the stakes up incorrectly as I made it 175 originally for some reason.
As Bertie Bassett says……
I believe you’re not including returned winning stakes in your calculations EF.
EDIT: Sorry, I see, you’re not including the place bet for some reason.
Value Is EverythingMy OP said return on Win Bets. Your place betting on the National was considerably more profitable!
The overround this year was 152%.
Of course, the supine racing "journalists" will say nothing.
There is nothing to say – it’s market forces, I’m no fan of bookmakers but they are businesses not charities and who can blame them for trying to enhance their returns. Any sane business would do the same.
If you want a decent price get on early and take the price, many bookmakers were going best odds guaranteed.
If the "once a year" punters cannot be bothered to do their research they, surely, it is their problem, Caveat emptor!!
I would also suspect most once a year punters could not give a toss about value or getting a price – if they get a return they’re happy, if they lose it’s just a bit of once a year fun.
surely the over round is so high as to allow for the very large each way pay out??? come on people think about it.
A 152% book is only a 34% _theoretical_ hold. Doesn’t sound so bad saying it this way
My OP said return on Win Bets. Your place betting on the National was considerably more profitable!
Ye right.The place bet on NC was a saver bet EF. To get back most of the money if I didn’t get the winner. All part of the same race/strategy. But if you want to separate them in terms of profit…
All win bets showed a profit of 312 points
Place bet showed a profit of 86 points.Value Is Everythingsurely the over round is so high as to allow for the very large each way pay out??? come on people think about it.
How many on course bookmakers were betting each way? It’s difficult to find on course bookmakers on most days betting each way, and if they do it’s at much reduced odds.
Value Is EverythingItsawar – the overround on teh National was a function of either market manipulation or and inadequate mechanism at work. Either way, the SP did not do what it intends i.e. reflect the betting market at the off.
I’m constructing a letter to the SPRC as we speak.
Paul – you’re probably right, possibly no one cares. But that’s probably because most people are none the wiser. They’d care if they knew they were being ripped off.
Paul – you’re probably right, possibly no one cares. But that’s probably because most people are none the wiser. They’d care if they knew they were being ripped off.
I’d very much doubt that. These poor fleeced unfortunates have already forgotten about the national and are preparing for their next day out wherever else!
Mike
David, by arguing that the National is a "special" case you are almost implying that it does not deserve to be treated like a normal horse race. This is of course true.
It would be much better if Camelot were awarded the franchise for running the race, it would be a proper cash cow then.
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