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Nice and simple, no waffle, just your picks for the first four in the National please…..
Mine:
Hedgehunter<br>Clan Royal<br>Le Duc<br>Garvivonnian
first four??? you dont ask for much<br>Ross Comm,<br>Direct Access,<br>Numbersixvalverde,<br>Clan Royal.
THis is also subject to some rain.
SHL
I have no interest in list after list of horse names. Much more interested in the reasoning for selections incase somebdoy considers something I have failed to. Not sure why you think that is waffle.
What are your views on Innox? He’s in good form; but will the conditions/distance of the National suit him?
Spot on DJ
Bit like the Betafir forum where people go
Innox will win _ FACT!
its the reasons why i want to hear
Frankly im a bit flumoxed this year, but will rule out the following
Hedge – Tough after that hard GC race. <br>Clan Royal – do we trust stable form? Not sure that Mccoys style is suited to the horse (or this race for that matter)<br>Jack high – Few too many liberties at fences
still pondering the rest but a lot to like about Innoxs last win i felt. <br>
still pondering the rest but a lot to like about Innoxs last win i felt.
Innox interests me, but the headgear is a little off-putting. I’m going to have to have a long hard think about him.
In the end, I’ll probably back 4 against the field.
I’m against Hedgehunter and Cornish Rebel because of the weight.
I usually go against 2nd season novices, but Numbersixvalverde won the Irish as a novice, so I have to think twice.
However, I’m going to stick to my rule as he’s usually held up, he still makes mistakes and he’s not got Ruby to look after him.
I’ve got my shortlist down to a dozen(!) and will put up my final 4 as usual.
However, as I use an "eliminate everything I can and back the rest" policy, there’s not really going to be much to say about the horses I back.
Steve
I like Innox for exactly the same reason, plus his win over 3m 3f at cheltenham. His major appeal being that he looks a relentless galloper who has definitely come on since last season. There will no doubt be people saying he didn’t get home last year, but i’m willing to take the chance.
My other bet will be hedgehunter. Surely the best horse in the race and although yes he had a hard race in the GC, he has been aimed at this again all year and last year Ruby had merely to give him a slap and he left the field standing… I believe he was worth more than 11 lengths. So although the weight will slow him I think his jumping, stamina plus having the best staying chase jockey on his back will put him right up there….. I think sometimes the value of the jockey on board gets lost in this race but I back Walsh almost religiously in staying chases.. His ride on eurotrek was a peach
At a big price i’ve always thought Baron Windrush was a useful horse and if the ground softens i think he’s got an each way chance having won at 3m 5f on soft ground..
The trainer / jockey combination has seen me against Clan Royal for the past month or so but having gone through last years race again yesterday I had forgot just how well he was travelling when carried out last year.
I remember thinking at the time that the race was over half way round the 2nd circuit.
Unoriginal and no value I agree but I’d be kicking myself atfer the race if he wins and I’m not on.
Ross Comm would be my other interest.
He tends to be up with the pace, seems as though the trip wont represent any problems and is in good heart.
His run in the Hennesy (prior to falling – which is obviousy a worry) also looks pretty good.<br>I’m not a superstitious person but the grey stat is niggling away.
Lee
Sir OJ interests me a lot. He jumps very well and he has a finishing kick. Obviously he has stamina doubts, but you have to take a chance hat he’ll get home as he has some class. Carberry can switch this fella off as we’ve seen before, so Im quite confident his style will suit.
Innox will be there or thereabouts, as will Joes Edge imo.
My shortlist is now (in order):
Garvivonnian (35% of my race stake)<br>Clan Royal (he’s too short, but I backed him the last 2 years and I’m being suckered into it) (25%)<br>Innox (20%)<br>Just in debt (10%)
Plus 10% on either Colnel Rayburn or Nil Desperandum (depending on the ground)
So, how many’s that I’m backing? 13?
Steve
Just In Debt could be a goof horse to take in match bets against dodgy jumpers because I think he’s sure to get round but I think he will have serious stamina limitations.
very un-original in my 1st choice of clan royal though obviously the price is hardly backable.<br>I also like Puntal who 2 years ago was jumping an eye catching race before unseating, and then went on to win the then Betred giving 3 lbs to Royal Auclair. Off for over a year since injured, i think he’s a decent price and worth an EW bet.
Just In Debt could be a goof horse to take in match bets against dodgy jumpers because I think he’s sure to get round but I think he will have serious stamina limitations.
Any horse backable at 130 is going to have some negatives …
.. but look on the upside, he’s only got 45l to make up on Hedgehunter and he’s 19lbs better off!
:biggrin:
Quote: from stevedvg on 1:08 pm on April 7, 2006[br].. but look on the upside, he’s only got 45l to make up on Hedgehunter and he’s 19lbs better off!
Using Peter May’s and David Lee Priest’s workings to calculate lengths beaten to pounds which is
Dist beaten x 15 / Dist of race in furlongs
this 45 lengths equates to
45 x 15 / 36 =
18.5lbs
so at 19lbs better off he should just nick it from Hedgehunter<br>:biggrin:
I will be backing Colnel Rayburn at about 33 or 40 to 1, Le Duc at about 33 or 40 to 1 and Inca Trail at about 40 or 50 to 1. No waffle (I do have some waffle to go with these selections but (i) it is not wanted and (ii) it contains the odd jocular observation about the part of the country the race is held in).<br> <br>Ãâ€â€
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