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As discussion as been pretty thin this week, I thought the Licoln maybe something to get our teeth into earlyish.<br>For me, the race revolves around Gentleman’s Deal, and whether he can replicate his Winter Derby run in these different circumstances.<br>From a handicapping perspective, I would estimate he will get a mark of around 115, from 108, for his last 2 victories, which means he could run here off approx 22lbs below his new AW mark. He hasn’t proved to be as good on turf so far, buth neither has he proved to be 22lbs worse.<br>His trainer states that he needs good ground, and the portents are that he may well get it. The Newcastle ground has improved  considerably since last weekend, and with the sun blazing down outside, and little rain forecast, it should certainly be bordering on good ground overall by Saturday.<br> Clicked wrong button, continued below.
(Edited by reet hard at 2:57 pm on Mar. 28, 2007)
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He has also never won on a straight course, but his Newmarket 4th, on the wrong ground, suggests it shouldn’t be a problem.<br>Of the others, it is unlikely to be soft enough for Blythe Knight to repeat last year’s win, Rio Riva finished a head in front of GD on gorund that favoured RR, and also has a fitness disadvantage. Zero tolerance needs softer to show his best, My Paris usually needs a run ot two to hit form, and the rest surely have too much to find.<br>At a general 8/1, Gentleman’s Deal looks a good bet imo, and will surely go of much shorter if he makes it to the line-up.
Is Gentleman’s Deal nearly as affective on grass as he is on sand though ? This has yet to be confirmed.
Gentleman’s Deal won on a straight track for Ed Dunlop, over 7f at Chepstow, though he was a 1-3 shot.
Crooked Throw – take the winner out of last weeks Irish Lincoln and he’d have won it, has a run in his favour this year and was well fancied last week :)
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Quote: from Black Sam Bellamy on 4:17 pm on Mar. 28, 2007[br]Is Gentleman’s Deal nearly as affective on grass as he is on sand though ? This has yet to be confirmed.<br>
This time last week it was "Will he act around Lingfield?".<br>He doesn’t have to be as effective, anything within a stone will do.
He had his chances on turf last year, but he has shown even better form on sand this winter than he did last winter. I’m with Reet on this one, I don’t mind paying to find out if he just isn’t so effective on turf at 7/1.
I’m coming around to the same opinion. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be effective enough on turf, it’s not like he’s got a dirt pedigree or anything.
Hello,
I thought ORCHARD SUPREME ran a reasonable race against G.D. on Saturday. Probably 1m 2f a tad too far for it, and got blocked once. <br>Is he in the Lincoln ??
He is running today at Lingfield, this could be some sort of indicator to G/Deal’s chances on Saturday.
Over the last few years’ AW form has translated well in the Lincoln, whether it a fitness reason, I ain’t sure. But the trend now is that AW form should be take very seriously in the Lincoln, and possibly used as a swaying factor in coming up with your selection. :)
regards,
doyley
Mmm
Seems to be some missed Cruise ship, jumping on tugboat with GD here imo
<br>better punting opportunities to be found at Dubai and elsewhere than this years Lincoln lottery
<br>All the best to those playing
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 3:37 pm on Mar. 29, 2007)
I’ve come full circle on the race. Having watched the videos, he’s had every chance from this sort of mark on various occasions. I’ve laid him for a place at just shy of 2.5.
Easterby reckons he feels the ground a bit on turf, that his joints stand up better on the more cushioned Poly.
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It might be worth pointing out that Gentleman’s Deal started off this season’s glorious AW campaign off much the same mark as he was on the flat. Who can say he won’t show the same improvement?<br>His trainer says in this morning’s RP, " What this horse has achieved already has been a fairytale, and there might be more to come".<br>Oppose him at your peril.:biggrin:
Having watched the videos of how easy he won at Southwell and Wolves last winter. I’m not sure he is that much better this winter than last as what the ratings would suggest.
Dificult to tell whether Gentleman’s Deal has improved over the winter or just prefers the sand. Trainer seems bullish about his chances.<br>I’m not going to take the risk and prefer Rio Riva ( goes well fresh and will like the ground ) and Tanzanite ( also likes the ground and trainer is in good form ). Will have to see if the predicted high draw bias turns out to be correct. ÂÂÂ
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