- This topic has 41 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Like most of the big handicaps, it’s lost much of it’s appeal as a result of becoming progressively more restricted to highly rated horses. Twenty years ago, the Lincoln had 24 runners and only one of them was rated higher than 95, with most runners in the 80’s and the bottom weight running off 79. On Saturday, it will be a major surprise if any horse rated as lower than 95 can even get into the race, now reduced to 20 runners.
Frankly, the whole thing was simply more entertaining in the past. Go back fifty years and you find the Lincoln run on the Wednesday before the Grand National, as part of a mixed card at Doncaster. The big race itself was preceded by a 2M handicap hurdle and the Brocklesby was followed by a chase. The big race had 39 runners with the weights ranging from 9-7 to 7-0, nobody got eliminated, so no need for a consolation race and the whole thing took place in the sort of industrial smog readers of my age will remember well!
Now it’s just a valuable Listed/Group 3 contest with a narrow weight range and no chance of plotting one up through the winter when you have to be so high in the ratings just to get a run.
Many years ago I can remember picking Sovereign Bill to win the Lincoln.
I vaguely remember Frankincense and even Ben Novus the year before that. I believe the victory of the former named played a big part in launching Barry Hills’ career as a trainer. Within a few years he was to win the Arc with a horse who had been beaten a nostril in the Derby the previous season. The rest, as they say, is turf history……….
For me, the Lincoln still holds pride of place and I’m totally unaffected by the switching of the codes at this time of the year with NH meets at Cheltenham, Aintree, Ayr, Sandown (mixed?) and Punchestown interspersed by Doncaster, the Easter meeting at Kempton and Newbury etc. (all Flat). And, of course, let’s not forget the little matter of the Dubai World Cup too! It’s all good racing, and to me it’s just good. Simples.
It is certainly the case that these days the weight range in the Lincoln tends to be narrower than it was 20-30 years ago, but it is still considerable: 17lb in 2011, 14lb in 2012, 17lb in 2013 and 19lb last year.
I view the the Spring Mile as an added bonus: another decent early season turf handicap where one can be sure that those with plausible claims will be fit, irrespective of whether they’ve been out on the AW.
Whilst I agree that the flat season cannot compare with the highs of Cheltenham. Personally, I’m convinced most people who criticise the flat just don’t like the fact you have to work at it more.
Jump racing is more obvious, often what you see is what you get. Flat racing requires more of a thinking process and you have to counter far more nuances and angles into consideration. Critics either don’t have the skill set required to make this profitable/enjoyable, or they just cannot be bothered as it does require more time. 80 horses running on a card at Ascot, as opposed to 30 runners on a card at Cheltenham trials meeting.
Jump racing is simpler in many respects and also has the appeal of old chums returning for a few years, rather than being whisked away all too quickly.
With Flat racing you need to look into the breeding for some races, ponder the ability to cope with certain track conformations, look at the draw factor, make judgements on the ability to cope with the prevailing ground and gauge how much the horse may improve at what can be an early stage of their lives.
With the jumps the horses are older, have raced more often, preferences for trip and ground have often been established, there is no draw to overcome and ability to act on a particular track is often already known to us.
The unknown factor of the obstacles always provides a great leveller of ability and brings that extra sense of excitement, since that last fence or hurdle still has to be negotiated regardless of the lead held.
I can understand the reasons why some people prefer that code of racing.
I would never criticise either discipline but I prefer the flat racing myself. There are a lot of mundane races on the flat and I have never taken to the all-weather side of the game. There is too much low fare fodder for me to have an interest and I could never watch a race of that nature without having had a bet, whereas I will watch a class race without the need to punt.
I prefer the 2YO and 3YO flat races, as that is where the future stars are born and begin to make a name for themselves. Regally bred animals born from previous stars of the discipline, I find it fascinating that we can be watching sons and daughters of Frankel so soon after his glory days.
There are classics to be seen and Royal Ascot, Newmarket in July, Glorious Goodwood and York’s Ebor to anticipate, as well as great Irish/French Classics and Group Races to take in. There is a lot of dross about as well but that is easily ignored and you can say the same about the jumps anyway, where Saturday is the only real day for better fare and perhaps a Sunday in Ireland.
Horses for courses but I don’t think it does anyone any credit to run down the flat game as a whole. There may be glorified dog racing fare out there but there is a long tradition of quality Classic fare out there, with some of the best horses around.
Remember, jump racing is for horses that are too slow for the flat game
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Whilst I agree that the flat season cannot compare with the highs of Cheltenham. Personally, I’m convinced most people who criticise the flat just don’t like the fact you have to work at it more.
Jump racing is more obvious, often what you see is what you get. Flat racing requires more of a thinking process and you have to counter far more nuances and angles into consideration. Critics either don’t have the skill set required to make this profitable/enjoyable, or they just cannot be bothered as it does require more time. 80 horses running on a card at Ascot, as opposed to 30 runners on a card at Cheltenham trials meeting.
Presumably, by obvious you mean the results are more predictable? If that really is the case then surely punters must have a few loose screws if they prefer betting on the Flat? Personally, I believe the Flat with all its supposed angles lends itself to talking shed loads of waffle – see Willoughby & co. As for the time factor many people just don’t have it and given all the time in the world, some, without realising it, would still remain absolutely clueless. Punting is about making money from the easiest opportunities, not the most difficult.
Whilst I take your point stilvi,
the more obvious notion on NH is already factored into the price. I don’t doubt that people who follow NH closely all season , will have more winners than on the flat as it is more obvious to see (excluding big festivals).But many of the trial races throughout the season are small fields with short price favourites. To make this pay, the strike rate has to be very good due to the prices in question.
Time certainly is an issue with the flat, i cannot disagree with this and in peak summer, you just have to focus on a couple of meetings and in some cases ignore some.
However, my opinion is that if people dedicate time into studying the flat season, they will make more in the long run. Your strike rate does not need to be brilliant due to the general higher price of winners. I have ploughed a lot of time into studying/watching flat racing over the last three seasons, my strike rate is one winner in every 5.2 bets. Maybe modest on the face of things, but my profit is very good based on an average bet size of approx £60-£70 and average price winner of 8.2/1
These profits would be very difficult to achieve on NH races at the stakes I work to which is £50-£120 per bet imo.
In respect of better class 4yo and above handicaps on the Flat and handicap chases, which is where I focus, I’m not convinced that one code is any easier/more difficult than the other. Mostly horses in these types of race run to my expectations based on their career records, but each has its quota of trainers whose runners I find difficult to predict, David Pipe perhaps most notably on the NH and Mark Johnston on the Flat.
Whilst I take your point stilvi,
the more obvious notion on NH is already factored into the price. I don’t doubt that people who follow NH closely all season , will have more winners than on the flat as it is more obvious to see (excluding big festivals).But many of the trial races throughout the season are small fields with short price favourites. To make this pay, the strike rate has to be very good due to the prices in question.
Time certainly is an issue with the flat, i cannot disagree with this and in peak summer, you just have to focus on a couple of meetings and in some cases ignore some.
However, my opinion is that if people dedicate time into studying the flat season, they will make more in the long run. Your strike rate does not need to be brilliant due to the general higher price of winners. I have ploughed a lot of time into studying/watching flat racing over the last three seasons, my strike rate is one winner in every 5.2 bets. Maybe modest on the face of things, but my profit is very good based on an average bet size of approx £60-£70 and average price winner of 8.2/1
These profits would be very difficult to achieve on NH races at the stakes I work to which is £50-£120 per bet imo.
Bit unfortunate this thread has got sidetracked from a discussion of the merits of the Lincoln to a National Hunt v Flat which rest assured we have done a few times before.
As regards your point about price. I think there are bound to be problems continuously backing short prices under either code. It is the sure road to the poorhouse but I would dispute that it is easier to find the longer priced winners on the Flat. If you look at the Lincoln the astute punter will probably be looking for a horse who in their opinion might be 7-10lbs ahead of the handicap. Last time I looked the market hadn’t missed any of them. Even if they are that much ahead that advantage could be negated by draw, ground and fitness (or lack of). Not to mention pace, possible trouble in running, poor ride. Even with relatively exposed horses there is a pretty large guesswork factor. Several of these factors wouldn’t have such a significant effect on a National Hunt race. Is there any value left? I doubt it but some people like to say they picked the Lincoln winner.
All very good points stilvi. I suppose another way of looking at things is that personally, I don’t think you find too many unlucky losers in NH day to day races. Sure, some races can still turn into a sprint, but in the majority of NH races, I don’t believe their are too many hard luck stories.
As you have referred, the flat has draw biased, I would also throw weather in more with the flat due to our unpredictable british summer weather,unlucky in running, bad break from the stalls etc etc.All very frustrating additional reasons for possible defeat, but this also throws up far more hard luck stories. Some are very obvious and the next time that horse reappears ,they can be very over bet.Some slip through the net of the more obvious brigade, which is partly why I believe it is easier to find better price winners on the flat as opposed to NH, adding to this, the flat has greater depth of races.
I like both codes and not trying to claim one is better than the other. Just highlighting,in my opinion, why the flat has many detractors and I firmly believe this is due to some people not having much success, as I think it requires more work away from what the naked eye sees.Where’s Drone when we need him? Come on Drone, you can help us out !! LOL
Are you sure about this?
Okay if you insist
Drone’s droning doggerel
Ah, third Thursday in March
Bajan-tanned turfistes
Gathered on vernal turf
Happy new year
Three short days
On time-honoured Town Moor
Brocklesby, Mile, Cammidge, Shield
And the Lincoln minefield
The Flat stage to itself
And two days good-lepping at Newbury
The perfect complementary Away
There, and at Wincanton, Hereford too
Those little aways
The inverted snobs
Then, as now
With inferiority complexes raging
Decried Donny and the imminent golden Spring
Craven, Roodee, Dante, Predominate
Ruby Tuesdays
Fences and hurdles had no place there
And the inferior, inverted perverted were mouthing stale winter air
But the Flat has floundered
And the Winter Game has flourished
Drone now too is inverted, converted
And longs only for escape to Scotland
At Perth in late April
And then the spade, rake and hoe
Cabbages, peas and parsnips
Fill the thoughts
Knavesmire, timefigures and draw-bias no more
It was The Flat
Now it’s just flat, so flat
The romance has gone, all gone
Love lies bleeding
I wouldn’t have missed it for the world
Sweet bird of youth…where’s Gamble when we need him. Come on Gamble you can help us out!!
sorry bud
In respect of better class 4yo and above handicaps on the Flat and handicap chases, which is where I focus, I’m not convinced that one code is any easier/more difficult than the other. Mostly horses in these types of race run to my expectations based on their career records, but each has its quota of trainers whose runners I find difficult to predict, David Pipe perhaps most notably on the NH and Mark Johnston on the Flat.
Mark Johnston is a total mystery to me as well. They can get stuffed at 6/4 and then romp home at double carpet shortly after.
A timely reminder at Lingfield today regarding Braveheart/Always Trying:-
1st Mercy Me 16/1 2nd Fav (Is this a record Roy?)
2nd Triple Dip 1/20 Fav (Yes that is TWENTY)
Mercy indeed, and never mind a double dip recession, how about a Triple Dip depression?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Jimsun wrote:</div>
Where’s Drone when we need him? Come on Drone, you can help us out !! LOL
Are you sure about this?
Okay if you insist
Drone’s droning doggerel……….
Wow! That is what I call a work of art, Drone, a real masterpiece!
Many thanks for that, my friend. I bow before you, sir. It will be treasured, rest assured. 
Somehow I knew we could rely on you! 
Cheers buddy
The Lincoln has always been a favourite of mine. It was the first race I assessed and bet on as a student in 1968. I picked Frankincense at 100/8 and had 2 shillings (10p) on it to win. As it was the first of the flat, we used the university computer (IBM 1620) to process all the information on the horses and jockeys we had collected weeks ahead, as our ‘project’. Still at it now!
Here we go again the bi yearly go at Doncaster, leave Doncaster alone if you don’t like it have a day off racing.
This site really pees me off they way it thinks Doncaster racecourse is easy game to have a go at.
I have had a Love/Hate relationship with the Lincoln for over 30yrs now.I backed the Abdulla colt Cataldi at 10/1 back in 85 and thought Wow how did I do that,it was a bloody cavalry charge behind but Guy Harwoods lad ploughed home.For the following 11 years I lost and looking at the results made me think it was a race to avoid,however in 1997 I had found just the horse to get me back to winning ways in Hawksley Hill,I’d seen this strapping chestnut win at my local course in the summer of 96 and again in a decent all aged handicap at Newmarket in the Autumn,he was only a 3yo at the time and I thought get on for the Lincoln,I duly did at all prices down from 20/1.How he lost in a photo finish at Doncaster in March I still dont know!Anyway I only had to wait 2 more years to get that elusive Lincoln winner againand I got 2 in Right wing 1999 in John Ferneley 2000 and thats all it takes to get you hooked on a race again.In 2005 I had a right touch on Pablo at 10/1 Ante-Post and that sadly was my last winner,10yrs ago.However I’m supremely confident my old pal John gosden will put things right agin tomorrow with GM Hopkins at 12/1 Ante-Post as like I say its a great race when you win but a horrible race when some ridiculous outsider comes in and has rubbish form but thats the Lincoln for you,its a one off race.
Here we go again the bi yearly go at Doncaster, leave Doncaster alone if you don’t like it have a day off racing.
This site really pees me off they way it thinks Doncaster racecourse is easy game to have a go at.
I’m not sure it’s an attack on Doncaster, it sounds more like the race just not being the fanfare to the new flat season that it once was.
I would prefer if the race dovetailed with the Craven meeting and the arrival of the classier types, rather than the fits and starts hiatus that splutters the season into life now.
Looking at the Lincoln it’s more like a stepping stone for potential borderline group horses nowadays and I thought I would look back a generation to 1990 and Evichstar’s win, to compare how the race has changed.
Of the 24 runners in 1990, only 1 would have got into this year’s race, the top weight was rated 108 and winner Evichstar was rated 82. This year, the bottom horse Robert The Painter runs off 96 whereas the second highest rated in 1990 was Bequerel, the 9/1 Fav for Roger Charlton and Pat Eddery, running off a mark of 90.
Changed days indeed and I’d like them to bring the flat season to a tighter, more cohesive opening each year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.