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Paddy Power have opened a book on The Lexus Chase and the odds are as follows:-
Bobs Worth (5/2), Boston Bob (4), Lord Windemere (9/2), Road To Riches (11/2), Shutthefrontdoor (7), First Lieutenant (10), Rocky Creek (10), On His Own (12), Lyreen Legend (16)
As we can see, several of the J N Wines runners are in the mix again and I am drawn straight to the winner, Road To Riches, considering that those who were behind him that day have a lot of ground to make up, even allowing for the fact that they probably needed their first runs of the season.
The two Bobs will be popular but my two bob would be on Noel Meade’s horse to confirm the form at 11/2.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If the front page of today’s Irish Independent is to be believed, then Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting could be under threat to the elements, with the threat of a prolonged ‘big freeze’ hitting between Christmas and New Year’s.
Does Bobs Worth definitely run? I see a quote from Nicky Henderson in an article on the RP site and he says he’s 60-40 to run. That doesn’t sound convincing and it would be difficult to put money on him at this stage, even though he was very impressive in the race last season.
Boston Bob
looks the value to me at 7/1. A lot was made of Lord Windermere’s fast finishing third in the John Durkan but Boston Bob was unlucky imo. He was racing about half a length down on Don Cossack jumping the fence that Rathlin and Baily Green fell at. After being hampered at that fence, he comes away about seven lengths behind the Don. When this is taken into account I think he comes out of the race with plenty of credit. He improved a lot from his run in Down Royal which suggests he can step forward again and if he does then he surely has a leading chance.
Lord Windermere did run well in the Durkan but I think he’s probably underpriced on the basis of a strong finish inside the last furlong at Punchestown, when the race was effectively over. For my money Boston Bob is the better horse of the pair and think he can confirm this in the Lexus.
Road To Riches is the potential fly in the ointment. He looks a transformed horse of late, with impressive victories in the Galway Plate and the James Nicholson most recently. While I think many of the opposing animals ran poorly that day, thy have a lot of ground to make up on the winner so he has to be respected. However, it’s interesting that his two worst runs last season, by far, came at Leopardstown, and I’m not convinced that three miles with a stiff uphill finish is what’s going to see him at his best.
Of the remainder, Shutthefrontdoor is interesting but unproven in this quality of race, while I could see First Lieutenant running a big race in defeat, as he has so often done in the past.
Road to Riches looks a tempting EW bet given the doubts over Bobs Worth, but Meade is quoted as being a bit wary if it comes up heavy at Leopardstown. And then there are those two awful runs there – but Meade claims he has completely changed the way he trains and feeds him and believes that is what has turned him around.
Bar the two mentioned above, they’re a rum bunch. Steve’s nemesis, Rocky Creek, might appreciate the smaller field, despite his good performances in large fields. His only wins, bar his point victory, have been in fields of 6, 5, 5, 5. Though it might say more about his ability than his preferences!
A race to leave alone, for now, I fear, though I might have a small EW on RtoR.
Hmm, having just checked, RtR is now 8s off a steady but unrelenting drift. Either all is not well, or he’s set to miss the race.
Road To Riches and Bobs Worth have been drifters in the Lexus betting Joe. I check the odds pretty much every day.
Noel Meade hinted that they may take Road To Riches to the King George if the ground was heavy in Ireland. That is my hope anyway, as I stuck a few quid on at 20/1 for The King George.
My thinking is that
if
Road To Riches does line up and the ground is suitable for him, then it won’t be so suitable for Silviniaco Conti. It’s a bit of a shot in the dark but with the reigning champ, Champagne Fever and Al Ferof at the odds they are and Simonsig still to make his seasonal debut, I feel 20/1 would be an insult to Road To Riches, if he does turn up.
I will very much leave The Lexus until the day of the race with so many question marks regarding different facets of the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Given how effective RtR is right-handed, 20s seems far too big. I might well have a wee bit of that too
Hmm, 90 on Betfair for KG suggests he ain’t going there either (but I stuck a fiver on just in case)
Just backed Sam Winner at 10s, and had a small bet for the Gold Cup. A slog in Ireland would suit him and a good run would see him on the fringe of the Gold Cup’s ‘more likely outsiders’.
Just backed Sam Winner at 10s, and had a small bet for the Gold Cup. A slog in Ireland would suit him and a good run would see him on the fringe of the Gold Cup’s ‘more likely outsiders’.
Bloody hell Joe, Holywell’s got no chance in it but you’ve just backed Sam Winner for the Gold Cup… There’s a Dawn Mass in the neighboring parish that I just might have to attend
Welcome to the club Joe, I’ve been backing him for The Gold Cup too.
Best of Luck. Obviously
I have decided to row in with my old pal Bobs Worth here.
He impressed me last year when winning this and Nicky Henderson said he was "reasonably confident" Bobs Worth will run. Barry Geraghty said that he rode the horse this week and feels he is in "the form of his life"
I would think that if Bobs Worth turns up looking the part he will go off shorter than the currently available 4/1 and it may be a case of the obvious answer to the conundrum being the correct one to have opted for.
The Caution wallet creaks open for a rare Jumping wager and 2 groats, a doubloon, a silver sixpence, a thruppeny bit and a farthing are invested at 4/1 on the gallant Bobsworth.
Yo, ho, ho
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s a tough looking race to call – lots of question marks. I have Boston Bob in my ten to follow but I just think he sometimes looks like a horse who is ‘just’ a plugger, vulnerable to something with foot.
Sam Winner and Road To Riches are both young and improving so I’d go for one of those if forced, probably the latter, but to be honest it’s a no bet race for me.
I’m with Boston Bob as I think the shape of the race will play into his hands. Sam Winner absolutely needs to be prominent otherwise he sulks and Road To Riches likes to be up there as well.
Boston Bob needs a strong pace so he can fiddle away at the back and pick up the pieces as he did in the Melling Chase. With Bobs Worth probably gone at the game as NJH wilfully dismantles his team of former stars, I reckon he’s the best option. First Lieutenant is an unusually chunky each-way price.
The forgotten horse in the race is
First Lieutenant
at 16/1,1/4 odds first 3 with Stan James by the way.Wherever ‘Bobs worth’ finishes this fellows never far behind and I would love to see this seasons Grand National winner take this en-route to Aintree.Of course had the Lieutenant ran in last years Gold cup I probably wouldn’t have backed
Lord Windermere
so I have to back both today as loyalty does occasionally pay off.
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