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So I’ve been on and off this site for a while now (though haven’t been actively posting), and I can’t help but notice the wealth of knowledge that certain users on here possess. I myself, read into form a lot and accompany that with watching races and deducing my own opinions of each run. However, I see a lot about a horse’s fitness, whether or not it was pushed to it’s full potential, trends etc, and I’m wondering where all this information comes from? Perhaps some folk just have the nack to see that sort of stuff.
Anywho, I ended the flat season £104 up from £1 level stakes, which I was fairly pleased with, and I’m hoping to go one better over the sticks and reach the £150 mark. Which is why I’m here! I’m a big racing fan, but have only been betting seriously on it for a couple of years now and I’m sure there is still much for me to learn. I probably won’t be posting daily as I tend to stick with Class 3 and above races, but I will be posting reasoning for my selections. If you helpful souls out there could provide some feedback as and when, perhaps pointing out where I’m going wrong and what things I should be looking out for, I would greatly appreciate it!
So down to the racing. Both selections at Kempton for tomorrow, starting with the 14:05 Weatherby’s Hamilton Insurance Novice’s Chase where I’m struggling to see past Buck Magic. I have somewhat of a personal vendetta against McCoy, as it seems that for all his winners, he’s never had one that I’ve got my hard-earned on! I’ll be entrusting my wonga with him tomorrow though. Magic should have fitness on his side having very nearly turned over the Grade 3 winning Gevrey Chambertin a month ago and should strip much fitter for the 3 miles ahead of him tomorrow. Sin Bin finishes 2nd far too often for my liking, and Tinker Time tends to need a run after a break and the extra 5lb’s won’t help him.
Onto the 14:35 and there are two horses that I fancy at the prices on offer. Brother Brian will understandably be popular in the betting after beating a fairly decent field at Cheltenham last time out, but I wasn’t massively impressed with that run. Having being driven from a fair way out, I think he was quite fortunate in the end having jumped badly to the left, in front of the challenging Another Hero and leaving himself a clear run to the finish. Call the Cops takes my fancy having readily justifying favouritism to beat a consistent horse in Always Archie. He should be fine running fresh and Geraghty can land the spoils on him.
In the same race, Utopie Des Bordes seems much too big a price at 8’s for me to ignore. A listed winner and a horse who clearly has class on his day, the drop in class and a race against lesser company could find him back in the winner’s enclosure. I’m willing to take the chance at the prices.
Kempton 14:05 – Buck Magic – £1 @ 2/1
Kempton 14:35 – Call the Cops – £1 @ 11/4
Kempton 14:35 – Utopie Des Bordes – £1 @ 8/1-£3[/color:32rgblpr]
el, Sounds as if you had a good flat season anyway, so keep doing what you’re doing, and you should be ok.
Spookily, or worryingly for you, I looked at both Call The Cops, and especially Utopie De Bordes tomorrow, some price that. The good news is for you though, I’ll probably leave them alone, and not jinx you
Best of luck with your thread this season.
Thanks, VTC.
Oh I wouldn’t worry so much about that, my luck on the football recently has been dire and I’m hoping it’s not going transfer over to the nags.
Not much market movement so far this morning although Call the Cops has drifted out to 7/2 in most places. I’m hoping Brother Brian is somewhat of a false favourite, I can’t see him improving enough to defy a 7lb hike after seeing the last performance but we’ll see.
Good luck with the thread. 100pts profit is a great return and if you compare that to the guy Ged Egan on At The Races website you can see that the site is trumpeting large regarding his 40pts profit this flat season and he tips on a 1 to 5 point scale.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thanks Steve.
I always back £1 whether it’s 40/1 or 5/2 and don’t go each way. Sometimes this nips me out of profit on a particular day, but on the whole, last season I was kept in profit a fair few times by big priced winners.
Perhaps I should hit up ATR and see if there’s a job going!
Well not a fantastic start to the thread, though a great ride on Tinker Time with virtually flawless jumping. The McCoy draught continues but one of these days he’ll give me something back! Magic was getting up towards the end of the race but his jumping was frankly woeful in parts, especially towards the end where it really matters. 2 fallers early on in the race left Tinker Time with little to beat, but credit where it’s due regarding the jumping.
So frustrating to see Utopie Des Bordes very nearly get there, a powerful surge at the end for Brother Brian got him back in front with about 1/2 a furlong to go but I guess those are the breaks. Certainly one to keep my eye on!
Haven’t got time for a write up so may add it later if I get chance, swamped at the office!
Haddon Gold Cup Chase – Cue Card 10/3 – £1 win
Placing trust in my beloved Cue Card! This horse is so classy and 10/3 seems a fair enough price for me to go in.
Bathwick Tyres Novice – Liberty One 14/1 – £1 win
Taking a chance on the outsider in this one, looks a very progressive horse to me and I’m hoping for a big run over an extra 4 furlongs. 14/1 is more than enough to tempt me in this company.
-£5
Haven’t got time for a write up so may add it later if I get chance, swamped at the office!
Haddon Gold Cup Chase – Cue Card 10/3 – £1 win
Placing trust in my beloved Cue Card! This horse is so classy and 10/3 seems a fair enough price for me to go in.
Bathwick Tyres Novice – Liberty One 14/1 – £1 win
Taking a chance on the outsider in this one, looks a very progressive horse to me and I’m hoping for a big run over an extra 4 furlongs. 14/1 is more than enough to tempt me in this company.
Bathwick Tyres Novice – Carraig Mor 9/4 £1 win
Smith and Williamson Handicap – Velator 20/1 – £1 e/w
-£8
4 selections for tomorrow’s races.
13:50 – Notts – Baltic Knight 5/1
Has been running in tougher company than this, and had every chance in Listed company before running out of steam in the final furlong. He should have fitness on his side with the run last week and 5/1 is pricey enough to tempt me.
14:10 – Chepstow – Lord Protector 10/3
Excels over this distance and also has a course win to his name. The ground should prove no problem and the only doubt for me could be fitness, but has won after a lengthy break before and can land the spoils in this too.
14:20 – Notts – Rothesay Chancer 16/1
1lb above last winning mark, and although the numbers of form look patchy, looking into it he’s not been far behind some really strong horses. A respectable 8th latest at Ayr and he’s got a good turn off foot. 16/1 is far too big a price to miss!
14:40 – Chepstow – Westerley Breeze 11/1
A decent hurdler but didn’t quite make it home over the extra 3 furlongs last time out, first time blinkers are tried and I’m taking a chance that it might eek out a bit more improvement in a fairly open race.
Going £1 win stakes on all 4 and also a 0.20p L15.
-£18
Just the one winner in Baltic Knight yesterday with the other selections proving disappointing, on to today. These prices won’t be available now, but were taken last night.
2:10 – Rebel High 10/1
2:30 – Right To Rule 7/1
2:40 – Sunny Ledgend 25/1
3:00 – Total Assets 16/1Just a 10p e/w Lucky15 today and no singles!
-£12.44
I need to stop picking horses at night when I’m half asleep, god knows what some of these are about.
Can’t even pick my nose never mind a winner!
Haha I’d probably beg to differ. I put a ‘fun’ bet of £3.50 on 9 games last night, Fiorentina drew 1-1 at HOME to PAOK which cost me £979, didn’t even know what to do with myself.
Anywho:
Musselburgh 2:00 – Landecker 9/2
Fontwell 2:10 – Arbeo 7/1
Fontwell 2:40 – Hi Note 13/2
Musselburgh 3:00 – Dispour 14/10.10p Lucky15 and £1 singles
-£19.44
Been incredibly busy at work and haven’t been active on the betting front for a while, but glad to get some spare time before Cheltenham today!
Casual L15 today hoping to scrape back some profit, was actually considering a L63 but I couldn’t be bothered to look through the races
Anywho!
13:50 – Anquetta 18/1
14:25 – Splash of Ginge 13/2
15:00 – Minella Present 11/2
16:05 – Here’s Herbie 33/1-£22.44
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