Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › The Ladbroke 2010
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December 13, 2010 at 12:17 #17028
Here”s my thoughts on it. Get me out of here,winner of the Tote Gold Trophy off a mark of 135,he carried 10-6 that day and clocks 3m 49 secs on officially Gd/Sft ground around Newbury! Tocca Ferro beats him at Ascot carrying 10-2 off a mark of 126,GMOOH carrys 11-12 off a mark of 150! Tocca Ferro subsequently goes on to win another handicap,this time at Newbury over the same C/D as the Tote Gold Trophy,he wins again off his revised mark of 134 carrying 10-13 in a time of 3m 57secs again on officially Gd/Sft ground and has been raised again to 141! Now you dont have to be a Ginger Mathmatician to realise GMOOH has clocked a hell of a fast time compared to Tocca Ferro,who has to be respected as an improving horse and the weight turn around in GMOOH”s favour tells me at 14/1 compared to Toccas 8/1 is the e/w bet for me! Oscar Whiskey and Aegean Dawn are obvious players at 10/1 and 5/1 but i think if GMOOH turns up,which has to be considered here (for obvious reasons) he will do a typical John Jo and run a blinder! His Supreme Nov run makes him a big big player even with his welter burden!William hill are alone in offering 14/1,its worth taking in my opinion! He wont be 14/1 tomorrow mind now that old big mouths blurted it out!
December 13, 2010 at 17:37 #332456Well well GMOOH thats what im like at work. The 14/1 has gone and jonjo is in great form too. Any horse who runs menorah close of level weights has to be in with a brilliant chance , im not a e/w man but im gonna make a exception , I think TOUBAB has improved a lot aswell so i might have a saver on that.. Good Luck
December 13, 2010 at 21:32 #332499He wont be 14/1 tomorrow mind now that old big mouths blurted it out!
8/1 in places now! There"s been money today for
Get me out of here
and i for one am not surprised! Connections will have the excuses well rehearsed if he does win,i still think its a brave decision just running.I can see mixed reviews if he does pull it off but it wont be the first time a horse has come in from the dark and it wont be the last time i spotlight it!
December 13, 2010 at 22:12 #332505If he runs, think I’d fancy a bit each-way on Fiulin at 33/1. You could argue that one of these strong pace handicaps will suit him. It may mean they can settle him near the front, but without having to make the pace.
He’s still a maiden over hurdles, but has some very good form. On only his 2nd start, he ran in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham, & finished a respectable 7th behind the likes of Menorah, GMOFH, Dunguib & Oscar Whisky. That was at level weights, he gets into this race with a 20lb pull over GMOOH, & 16lb over WO.
Even his 3rd last time over this C+D is starting to look good. The winner was Dunraven Storm, who is now OR150, & the 2nd was Recession Proof, who is also entered in this race, & theoretically has a better chance than Fiulin.
Imo the above race is one of the key form lines, together with the Newbury race won by Tocca Ferro, with Rebel Dancer 2nd.
I don’t think any of the entries for this could match Fiulin’s level of form on the flat, & he’s already shown he has ability over hurdles as well.
Like TAPK, I still think there’s a lot to come from GMOOH. I’ve never really had a problem with trainers bringing horses to a peak slowly (like J.O’Neill with GMOOH & Syncronised etc). It’s quite interesting to try & work out what they are planning.
December 13, 2010 at 22:33 #332511I really didn’t want to give up on GMOOH, and seeing His Highness’s post on him…well, it’d be rude not to have a go, wouldn’t it?
Will almost certainly pick another horse to go with him – looking like Tocca, but not entirely sure.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
December 13, 2010 at 22:58 #332513If he runs, think I’d fancy a bit each-way on Fiulin at 33/1.
Colin,i dont like letting too many of my secrets out (Walls have ears) but i use what i call marker horses when i assess a race and 2 of my markers for this race were The Betchworth Kid and Mamlook,your horse has form/weight ratio with both! Good Luck!
December 13, 2010 at 23:40 #332518AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
Get Me Out Of Here is almost certainly a good deal better than his Ascot and Greatwood performances; the cynic in me says he was never likely to win at Cheltenham following his suspect previous outing. He definitely has a chance, but this looks best left to
Toubab
.
He was unbelievably impressive last time and looks to have strengthened up a great deal. He’s going to make a hell of a chaser, but he’s got plenty more to give over hurdles and is still able to race from a mark of 144.
Oscar Whisky is interesting on his annihilation of Cois Farraig last season, but
Mille Chief
looks the danger. He faced an impossible task in trying to concede 22lb to Aegean Dawn at Ascot, but travelled like a dream and comes out of the race much the best.
December 14, 2010 at 00:30 #332522AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
Ditto AJ
There’s always a little bit of money for Jonjo’s when "This is Glouster" hits the web and mentions one of Jonjos going to run. He went from 23 to 10 with Betfair after that hit the screens
If JP was backing him it wouldn’t happen until the day or at least until he did his final piece of work.
If he does turn up I think you can expect a similar display to what we saw last time but I doubt if he will run. 4 weeks inclimate weather is hardly a recipe to turn a horse that’s basically been on the sick list around.
TAPK could be right, I have my doubts. All I can say at this time is Rosyth is a lovely place in the spring. Riddle me that Batman
GMOOH is better off at the weights with Tocca Ferra but what intersts me more is Mille Chief being better of at the weights with the unbeaten Agean Dawn.
He travelled supremely well behind Agean Dawn last time and wasn’t given a hard time of it when beaten and Alan King has said he needed it. Agean Dawn was very impressive but Saturday’s another day and there will be no pulling punches from Alan Kings charge this time.
Mille Chief 8/1 ew looks a pretty safe bet to me.
December 14, 2010 at 22:17 #332631Paul Nicholls said on Saturday at Cheltenham that Toubab was almost certain to run in the novice race on the same Ascot card rather than the Ladbroke….due to his (presumably high) handicap mark.
December 14, 2010 at 22:32 #332638I’m finding it hard to choose. Narrowed down to Get Me Out of Here, Agean Dawn and Tocca Ferro, may have a more thorough look through!
December 20, 2010 at 11:13 #333308AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
I was just told the race will now be run at Wincanton on Boxing Day…..casn’t find anything confirming that on the web… anyone know if it’s true?
December 20, 2010 at 12:30 #333326My three against the field are: Bygones of Brid, Get Me Out Of Here and Aegean Dawn, but the only one, imo, I got a decent price about was Bygones @ 25s.
I suspect the 5s I took about Aegean Dawn will be less than on the day, and 9s about GMOOH doesn’t look spectacular.
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