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I have no idea what runs only the Paul Nichols stated Kauto Stone would. No market yet but when it opens I’ll right in there.
I’m not usually impressed when I head such and such is a half brother to some superstar but what this fella did on the Racecourse had me wondering could he be the next coming.
It wasn’t what he beat, even if Roi Du Mee had made mincemeat of Forpaddydeplasterer, it was the way Kauto Stone jumped that impressed me. He definitely doesn’t have Kauto’s chink, he jumps for fun.
Curious, I decided to check how his time compared to the big race which had horses like Sizing Europe in it and found it was a street length faster.
Corals have gone out on a limb and make him 16/1 for his intended target, The Ryanair. He’ll be nearer 5/1 if he takes this race on the 9th of Decemeber and I reckon it will take a real good un to beat him
Curious, I decided to check how his time compared to the big race which had horses like Sizing Europe in it and found it was a street length faster.
The trip was a half mile less????
(2:05) 317D John Durkan Memorial Punchestown
S’chase (Grade 1) €52,000.00 ( 2m 4f – 5yo+ )[MAX 22]
NHFrm
35p-2 1 Cooldine(151) (WPMullins) – 11,10
11144 2 Golden Silver (FR)(165) (WPMullins) – 11,10
43-31 3 Joncol(161) (PNolan) – 11,10
-1pp3 4 Kempes(162) (WPMullins) – 11,10
17512 5 Roi Du Mee (FR)(148) (GElliott) – 11,10
-2133 6 Rubi Light (FR)(164) (RAHennessy) – 11,10
6-664 7 Trafford Lad (GB)(145) (LJButler) – 11,10
1-7u1 8 Tranquil Sea(160) (EJO’Grady) – 11,10Golden Silver likely to run in the Hilly Way at Mallow instead.
Interesting race.
I would fancy Rubi Light but that was an x-rated fall at Gowran last time and I am worried it might have dented his confidence.
Joncol never seems to do it easily. His defeat of Cooldine was another workmanlike performance. Tranquil Sea showed his trademark turn of foot at Clonmel but also needs to step up here.
Kempes seems better on decent ground and may need the 3m these days.
Roi du Mee and Trafford Lad look a bit outclassed in this company.
Rubi Light would be a tentative selection.
Rubi Light for me, as long as he’s none the worse for that fall I think he has a really good chance as he’s a cut above these.
Rubi Light is the one to beat and would have won easily lat time out. Third at Cheltenham, I wonder what price Poquelin or Kalahari King would be here? About 3/1 I would think. He’s still quite going the right way and could yet be very good.
I heard somewhere that connections of Joncol were never 100% happy with him last term, and he was believed to be below par. He certainly seemed to finish rather tamely at Leopardstown twice last season. It’s possible the stiff 3 miles is as far as he wants, and last time out over 2m6f he was very impressive, although Cooldine went out like a light. He was excellent when he beat In Compliance in this a couple of years ago.
Tranquil Sea is a class act on his day, but is difficult to catch right. He looked to be out of the top drawer when he won the Paddy Power with ease from Poquelin. Connections were ultra confident ahead of the Ryanair this year, only for the horse to miss the festival. He then disappointed at Aintree and Punchestown, before returning with a good victory over Psycho at Clonmel.
Kempes was a very impressive winner of the Irish Hennessy last year before disappointing greatly at both Cheltenham and Punchestown. After he won the Hennessy I thought he was a serious Gold Cup contender but he hasn’t been right since. I thought he’d win on his comeback over hurdles, and he was well backed into favoritism, but he finished tamely behind New Phase and Psycho. He’ll need to have come on for that run.
Cooldine hasn’t won since winning a weak RSA and has run some deplorable races since. Not far off Joncol at his best but until we see signs of the old ability I wouldn’t back him with stolen money.
Roi Du Mee has run two very good races this season but he was a fair bit off the better novices and he shouldn’t be good enough to take this.
Trafford Lad used to be a highly talented novice a few years ago before suffering injury. Looks up against it here.
A test of stamina could be against Tranquil Sea, and play to the strengths of Joncol. I’d say Paul Carberry will be sending him for home early enough to try take the sting out of the others. Kempes will be the one to beat if rediscovering his Hennessy-winning form, but whether that happens is anyone’s guess. Rubi Light also has leading claims. I reckon this is Joncol’s best chance of a Grade 1 this year, as going right handed seems to suit him better than left, and as a result I’d say the Nolan’s will have him spot on. Thus he is a tentative selection.
I’m a big fan of Kempes, and I think the drop in trip won’t be a problem. I reckon he’ll be there-or-thereabouts, so 7s is ripe for some each-way thievery!
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
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Rubi Light is the one to beat and would have won easily lat time out. Third at Cheltenham, I wonder what price Poquelin or Kalahari King would be here? About 3/1 I would think. He’s still quite going the right way and could yet be very good.
Forget Poquelin and KK – jockey believes he would have beaten Albertas Run, had the ground been softer.
Form against Sizing Europe is unreliable though, as it was a warm up for the latter on ground that doesn’t favour him anyway. RL still did enough to show he’s progressive, and has had plenty of time to get over his fall. Was entered for the Betfair Bowl, but trainer said he needed another week, so should be fit enough to win this cosily.What a poor race for a Grade 1. Surprised no British runners bothered to take part.
Cooldine hasn’t shown his very best since the RSA and is very inconsistent. Possibly needs further anyway, although the going will bring stamina in to play…
A comment that applies to Joncol too. He beat Cooldine on reappearance, but what is that form worth? Still to convince me he’s as good as a couple of seasons ago. Loves this ground, but looks too short at the moment.
Kempes could take this if in the same form as when taking the Hennessey, but that’s a big IF. Seemed to improve for the 3 mile trip there and injured since. Little encouragement on reappearance.
Roi Du Mee does not look good enough, but at least he’s in form and could improve further.
Rubi Light
fell last time out with the race at his mercy. Sizing Europe taking advantage, but the Champion Chaser was well below form, so can’t be taken as solid form. Don’t like backing fallers next time out, as some can have confidence issues, but Rubi Light is usually such a good lepper. Third in the Ryanair at Cheltenham and still only six years old. There must be a good chance of further improvement this season. Proven on the ground and trip, as long as it doesn’t turn in to a real slog is surely the one they all have to beat. 5/2 looks generous.
Trafford Lad hasn’t been up to this level for a while and isn’t getting any younger. Well beaten last time.
Tranquil Sea won this last term, won on reappearance without impressing. Possibly needed the outing. If back to the form that saw him win this last year is the biggest danger to the favourite. Autumn/Winter seems to be his time of year.
Value Is EverythingCompletely agree about Sizing Europe form Reet, he was well beaten last year by by China Rock on seasonal debut. Still a smart effort form Rubi Light though.
Two factors point to Tranquil Sea for me: B Geraghty has ridden the horse just once but committed to him early this week over Joncol another horse he’s ridden just once.
But the key thing, I think is the ground. Tranquil Sea’s form figures, as with most horses, contribute to his price yet probably ignore the fact that his two poor runs were on good ground on which he’s won 3 from 12.
On ground soft or softer he’s won 8 from 13 (three times runner-up too)
Rubi Light looks a very promising type and might start pretty short tomorrow so I’ll go with B Geraghty to improve his already splendid weekend.
Took the 5/2 about Rubi Light last night, looks to have the strongest claims to me. Too many question marks over the others.
Agreed GD,
I’ve just backed Rubi Light for the Ryanair (12/1 VC).
Take it that will be his Festival target?
Quoted for both Champion and Gold Cup too.
Always seemed to have more pace than any of his rivals today. Has an action that (to me) suggests should be more at home on good/good-soft. Improved greatly when able to run on it at Cheltenham.
Value Is Everything
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