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Better still Mark, along with a 2m Champion Hurdle – let’s get Cheltenham to run a 2m1f Championship Hurdle, a 2m2f Championship Hurdle, a 2m3f Championship Hurdle and a 2m4f Championship Hurdle. That way, Hurricane Fly, My Tent Or Yours, The New One, Jezki and Our Connor can all win at the Festival without taking each other on.
Lighten up Mark.
There is a "salient point" to my (attempted) jovial point.
OK, you wanted "logical arguement"…Ask any trainer, jockey, or owner if another valuable Festival race is a good idea and they’d say YES! Purely because it is in their best interests to do so. A Ryanair Hurdle immediately makes it half as hard to win a Championship Hurdle. Half as hard to win a very valuable prize.
Admittedly this year there might (if all keep sound) be more top 2m to 2m4f horses around than average. But what about another year when there’s a short priced (probable winner) favourite?
Go back to 2012 with a 4/6 (
60%
of the book)
Hurricane Fly
. How many of his 9 rivals would’ve taken him on?
Rock On Ruby
(SP 11/1
8.3%
of the book) Had run really well 2nd to First Lieutenent over 2m5f the previous year.
Overturn
(20/1
4.8%
) is a stayer on the flat, would stay 2m5f…
That’s the Champion Hurdlewinner and second out of the way
…
Binocular
(4/1
20%
) Probably would’ve kept to 2m.
Zarkander
(9/1
10%
) Had not run at 2m4f before, but always thought of as one that would get/be suited by the trip.
Oscars Well
(14/1
6.7%
) who’d been beaten out of sight by Hurricane Fly last time out and going like the winner in the race won by First Lieutenent, 2m5f the previous year – before a terrible error at the last.
Brampour
(50/1
2%
) Would probably have remained at the 2m trip.
Zaidpour
(22/1
4.3%
) Stays 3m let alone 2m4f and Hurricane Fly’s stable companion, so likely to have taken the "Ryanair" flight path.
Celestial Halo
(50/1
2%
) Always thought of as a staying 2 miler and had won the Salmon Spray over 2m4f on soft.
Kalann
(150/1
0.66%
) Out and out speed horse, so for what it’s worth kept at 2m.
Bookmakers betting to 119%
8.3% + 4.8% + 10% + 6.7% + 4.3% + 2% = 36.1%
36.1% of the book could have defected to the "Ryanair Hurdle"!
Meaning Hurricane Fly could have started long odds-on, around 1/4 fav!Whether you believe it would be 36% or not, dilution will be significant!
…And it is not only the Champion which would suffer. With Big Buck’s the 5/6 fav in the World Hurdle, many rivals would’ve gone down to the intermediate distance. Including second and third favourites Oscar Whisky (SP 4/1 20% of the book) and Thousand Stars (8/1 11.1%). Both doubtful stayers and alone taking out over 31% of the book. Meaning Big Buck’s could easily have started long odds-on too.
…And it doesn’t only effect favourites, all horses would have their prices shorten too.
Cheltenham is THE BEST meeting in the World because it has the
MOST COMPETITIVE TOP QUALITY
racing. Diluting it with yet more races will only lessen competitiveness and make it just like any other "top" quality meeting.
Breeders Cup is nowhere near as good now as it was, having too many races for connections to choose from. Don’t do it to Cheltenham!
Nothing whatsoever to do with the absence of a graded race for a distance which is contested at novice level
Book percentages ???!!! Get over yourself.
Nothing whatsoever to do with the absence of a graded race for a distance which is contested at novice level
Book percentages ???!!! Get over yourself.
Knew you wouldn’t like it if I used "salient, logical" points Mark.
Everyone would love a 2m4f Championship Hurdle in a perfect World. But this is not a perfect World. Basic truth is there aren’t enough good horses to go around, the "book percentages" prove it.
Why do you think there is no 2m Championship Hurdle at Aintree?
Value Is EverythingWhy do you think there is no 2m Championship Hurdle at Aintree?
ANSWER:
Because there’s a 2m4f Championship event at Aintree. One race would take too much away from the other.Value Is EverythingNothing whatsoever to do with the absence of a graded race for a distance which is contested at novice level
Book percentages ???!!! Get over yourself.
Knew you wouldn’t like it if I used "salient, logical" points Mark.
They are not salient or logical
The world best jumps racing, you say ? The best horses taking each on over the industry’s standard distances at the best venue ?
Forget your bookie percentages, forget the opinion there are already too many races.
It makes no sense whatsoever for there to be no 2.5 mile championship hurdle race for senior horses at National Hunts version of the Olympics, especially when the course holds similar races throughout the year prior to March.
Nothing whatsoever to do with the absence of a graded race for a distance which is contested at novice level
Mark,
I am not really in favour of so many Novice events either. But at least novice races are more competitive. ie There are more "good" horses to go around at the top, because the standard is not so high as with established hurdlers.In just roughly 4 months (mid November to mid March) very few novices reach the standard of top established hurdlers/chasers. They need to carry on improving in their second season.
Discounting the abnormally good Simonsig, 6 lbs clear at the top. At the end of the 2011/2012 season Timeform had
16 top novice hurdlers rated within 10 lbs of each other
, rated from 156 down to 146; with many more only just below those 16.
Same season,only 8 established hurdlers were within 10 lbs
, 173 to 163; with the abnormal Big Buck’s 3 lbs clear of them. Break those 8 horses down in to 3 races (not 2) and you can see the problem.
After any season some top novices carry on improving, some stay the same standard and some never reach that level again. Hence the difference in ability levels of established hurdlers compared to novices.
Last season was a highly unusual one, with 5 novices reaching an abnormally high standard 167 to 164. But this time
21 novice hurdlers reached the 156 to 146 bracket. Just 10 established hurdlers reached 173 to 163.
Again, 10 horses in to 3 races (not 2).
So there is basically
twice
as many at the top of the
novice
hurdle tree as there is the
established
hurdle tree. ie Many more top novices to go around than there are top established hurdlers. Therefore, those extra races are more likely to be filled in the novice sphere.
Value Is EverythingThey are not salient or logical
The world best jumps racing, you say ? The best horses taking each on over the industry’s standard distances at the best venue ?
Forget your bookie percentages, forget the opinion there are already too many races.
It makes no sense whatsoever for there to be no 2.5 mile championship hurdle race for senior horses at National Hunts version of the Olympics, especially when the course holds similar races throughout the year prior to March.
…Which is exactly the same arguement as the Breeders Cup. And look what’s happened there.
I said before, in a perfect World everyone would love a 2.5m Championship Hurdle. May be one day there will be enough good horses to have one. Not now! Statistics prove it would be a disaster.
Where are the horses going to come from for this 2.5 mile Championship event Mark? If you can not answer that question you have no "logical" case.
Value Is EverythingGinger – your answer is based on odds and fields sizes, probably because you want better odds for the likeliest winners.
9 runners in the 2013 Champion Hurdle. Had there been a 2.5 mile equivalent you may have seen Zarkandar run in that race instead The Fly probably starts odds on but you still have pretty much the same race.
13 runners in the 2013 World Hurdle. Oscar Whisky, Zaidpour, Getmeoutofhere and Peddlers Cross probably don’t line up but you still have the same race because, basically, none of those mentioned awere Grade 1 stayers that this point.
You then have a 2.5 mile championship race with Oscar Whisky, Zarkandar, Peddlers Cross and others – i’ve probably forgotten a few and i dare say such a race would attract the best horses from France – 2.5 miles is a distance they have plenty of races for.
The Aintree hurdle was basically a 2 or 3 horse race at best but nobody complains because there were plenty of runners which disguised the lack of Grade 1 staying hurdlers.
What you are effectively saying is you want horses to run over inadequate trips to create the illusion the race is better than it is and so keep prices more " acceptable " to you.
You look at the hurdlers this season and there’s enough to form championship races over the three distances at the festival
* Stats don’t prove it would be a disaster at all.
Ginger – your answer is based on odds and fields sizes, probably because you want better odds for the likeliest winners.
No, just want competitive top class racing, with or without betting.
Value Is Everything9 runners in the 2013 Champion Hurdle. Had there been a 2.5 mile equivalent you may have seen Zarkandar run in that race instead The Fly probably starts odds on but you still have pretty much the same race.
13 runners in the 2013 World Hurdle. Oscar Whisky, Zaidpour, Getmeoutofhere and Peddlers Cross probably don’t line up but you still have the same race because, basically, none of those mentioned awere Grade 1 stayers that this point.
You then have a 2.5 mile championship race with Oscar Whisky, Zarkandar, Peddlers Cross and others – i’ve probably forgotten a few and i dare say such a race would attract the best horses from France – 2.5 miles is a distance they have plenty of races for.
OMG!
You mean to say you can only come up with justthree
known Chapionship standard horses for this "Championship" event (Oscar Whisky, Zarkandar and Peddlers Cross). Last of which hasn’t produced top class hurdle form in years…
…And you’re relying on France to send over a challenger or two. Something they rarely do for the Stayers hurdle (Baracouda an exception) let alone an intermediate distance.
I’ll give you two. What about
Solwhit
and
Celestial Halo
? They weren’t "Grade 1 stayers" to that point either. Neither had run at 3m+ before last year’s World Hurdle and have good records at 2m. So both likely (if given the option) to race at 2m4f… But they finished
first and second
in the World Hurdle.
Value Is EverythingWhat you are effectively saying is you want horses to run over inadequate trips to create the illusion the race is better than it is and so keep prices more " acceptable " to you.
Suggest you look at the records of the top 2m4f hurdlers (and chasers for that matter) over the years. Almost all are effective at another distance, be it over further or shorter.
Some are simply equally effective at either 2m or 3m (or both) as they are at 2m4f
Some 2m4f hurdlers need a test of speed at that trip, so are equally effective in a test of stamina at the "minimum" trip. ie A truly run race over an undulating course with some give in the ground. Cheltenham Festival going is watered to produce good-soft on day one. With the usual good pace – ideal conditions for such a horse.
Some 2m4f horses need a test of stamina at that trip, so are usually equally effective over 3m given suitable conditions. Going usually dries out a bit by Thursday.
All my form study points to horses being effective over far more trips than most give them credit for. Of course trainers will give trip as an excuse instead of saying simply "not good enough". Too much credence is paid to connections opinions.
Before the Ryanair Chase connections of a lot of horses said their stable stars would not be as effective over other trips. You only need to look at the winners know that is untrue. I can only think of one winner in its history not fully effective at another trip. Fondmort.
Value Is Everything
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