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French 1000 Guineas 2017

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  • #1300564
    Avatar photostevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8241

    Run on the Saturday this year, bookies have finally got around to properly pricing the French 1000 Guineas up.

    I was on Senga from day 1 and have gone in again at 7/2. The accumulated bets of Senga make this my biggest bet since Just The Judge won the Irish 1000 Guineas.

    I have faith in this lovely filly being superior to her rivals.

    Unlucky in last year’s Boussac, she took the trial race, the Prix De La Grotte in taking style, despite jumping the path along the way. To my eyes, she is a filly who will make more than normal improvement.

    Fabre’s Via Ravenna is the second favourite, and she took a big step forward last time in the Imprudence. However, I felt that, with Fabre’s other filly Double Lady, the odds-on favourite, running a total stinker that day, it perhaps wasn’t a great race and I believe Senga is more solid by a fair way.

    Sea Of Grace is poor value to my eyes. She looked all at sea last time, pulling to hard and fading behind Daban. I have concerns with William Haggas at the top level. I don’t fancy Roly Poly at all.

    Delectation is interesting and very unusual, having run at Thirsk and Ayr for Bryan Smart before transferring to Andreas Wolher and winning a group 3 at Cologne. Unbeaten and could be useful. I have had a small saver at 9/1 on her but I prefer the French form in general.

    I feel Senga is good value at 7/2 and the biggest downer on her is my lousy run at the moment. I seem to have the Midas touch, only in the Spitting Image Robert Maxwell Parody sense, where everything he touched turned to s***.

    It’s my biggest wager in getting on four years. Probably very modest by other’s standards but I bet pretty small these day and it’s a nervous day for me tomorrow, riding in on a Tsunami of crap this past few weeks. :unsure:

    Senga 7/2 is the Nap of the season so far.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1300587
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2031

    I don’t disagree that Senga looks a solid option but alas she is a favourite I’ll take on with Via Ravenna at 6/1 and Delectation at 9/1.

    I just really liked the way Via Ravenna handled conditions and convincingly won the Prix Imprudence (won in the past by Ervedya, Moonlight Cloud, Elusive Wave and Natagora) after circumnavigating the field in what looked a decent time. She’s trained by the master and is highly progressive.

    At the slightly bigger price is the ex-Brian Smart trained filly Delectation. Nobody could watch her two wins for Mr Smart last year and not be impressed with the way she powered away late on. On debut for her new connections she won a German Group 3 in similar fashion by quickening away from a decent field over the mile to maintain her unbeaten record.

    I’ve had a couple of savers on Rain Goddess and Toulifaut just in case they finally deliver on their promise. The former looks the part and ran like a mile would bring about improvement in the Fred Darling whilst the latter has had even more bad luck in running than Senga in her past 2 starts and was sent off favourite for the Marcel-Boussac.

    I won’t complain if Senga wins, she’s a good filly and I’ll congratulate you Steve for latching on to her early.

    #1300588
    Avatar photoMiddle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 2833

    Run on the Saturday this year, bookies have finally got around to properly pricing the French 1000 Guineas up.

    I was on Senga from day 1 and have gone in again at 7/2. The accumulated bets of Senga make this my biggest bet since Just The Judge won the Irish 1000 Guineas.

    I have faith in this lovely filly being superior to her rivals.

    Unlucky in last year’s Boussac, she took the trial race, the Prix De La Grotte in taking style, despite jumping the path along the way. To my eyes, she is a filly who will make more than normal improvement.

    Fabre’s Via Ravenna is the second favourite, and she took a big step forward last time in the Imprudence. However, I felt that, with Fabre’s other filly Double Lady, the odds-on favourite, running a total stinker that day, it perhaps wasn’t a great race and I believe Senga is more solid by a fair way.

    Sea Of Grace is poor value to my eyes. She looked all at sea last time, pulling to hard and fading behind Daban. I have concerns with William Haggas at the top level. I don’t fancy Roly Poly at all.

    Delectation is interesting and very unusual, having run at Thirsk and Ayr for Bryan Smart before transferring to Andreas Wolher and winning a group 3 at Cologne. Unbeaten and could be useful. I have had a small saver at 9/1 on her but I prefer the French form in general.

    I feel Senga is good value at 7/2 and the biggest downer on her is my lousy run at the moment. I seem to have the Midas touch, only in the Spitting Image Robert Maxwell Parody sense, where everything he touched turned to s***.

    It’s my biggest wager in getting on four years. Probably very modest by other’s standards but I bet pretty small these day and it’s a nervous day for me tomorrow, riding in on a Tsunami of crap this past few weeks. :unsure:

    Senga 7/2 is the Nap of the season so far.

    I’ve no opinion myself but I hope Senna wins for ya :good:

    #1300639
    Slowly Away
    Participant
    • Total Posts 411

    Good luck steve, …………. fingers crossed for you !

    I’ve only had a quick look and won’t be risking cash but I do like the look of Via Ravenna, currently 11/2

    On first glance I’d be put off Senga by the fact that she’s been beaten twice already in a 4 run career. I like my Classic horses to be unbeaten …….. the logic being that if they’re going to be the best of their generation they shouldn’t be getting beaten more than once in lesser races. (you give ’em one for inexperience or greenness or the general Chaos of horse racing)

    But as I’m not having a bet I’ll cheer on Senga !

    :yahoo:

    #1300687
    Avatar photoChivers1987
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2430

    Im too concerned about the soft ground to play anything substantial here. Good luck on Senga, she has really caught the eye with her last two runs but first time up on soft ground is off putting.

    Sea Of Grace had shown very likeable form on ground described as yielding and good to yielding so its no surprise to see her here and not last week at Newmarket.

    If Andreas Wohler thought delectation was good enough to win this then I think he would have got a harder race into her than a German group 3.

    Tough one to call but sky bet and Ladbrokes are paying 4 places 7/1 for Sea Of Grace with that minor league jockey Cristophe soumillon on board so a small token on that one will do me.

    #1300711
    Avatar photohein bollow
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 986

    Senga French horse of the year?
    If it wasn’t so sad, it would be almost funny :negative: ..

    #1300713
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8241

    Yes, a pathetic effort from Senga there. Hard to say what happened, she’s run 20 lbs below form at least.

    She simply went out like a light but she wasn’t the only filly to disappoint today.

    Obviously gutted by that effort but in the context of the Odds, Sir John Lavery at his price for a maiden winner was a lot dafter bet today.

    Kiss of death again.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1300715
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5228

    Another bookmakers benefit. Yes, the winner had shown she could handle the ground but she had been beaten by Simmie?

    I am not surprised Senga didn’t handle the surface but compared to Delectation she has run a stormer. Total garbage from a horse backed from 12/1-13/2.

    A pin would have been the most useful punting tool.

    #1300717
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8241

    Another bookmakers benefit. Yes, the winner had shown she could handle the ground but she had been beaten by Simmie?

    I am not surprised Senga didn’t handle the surface but compared to Delectation she has run a stormer. Total garbage from a horse backed from 12/1-13/2.

    A pin would have been the most useful punting tool.

    Today’s winner ran at 6F last time, she was totally thrashed by Fas, who comfortably beat her by more than 3 lengths. I have backed Fas a couple of times at 20/1 for the Commonwealth Cup and long thought he was underestimated for that contest.

    Maybe the ground found Senga out but she seemed to run too poorly for that to be the sole excuse.

    I didn’t quite notice Via Ravenna’s run but she wasn’t in the first five. Typically, Sea Of Grace ran a lot better than when I was on her, she was pretty woeful last time but ran better today, although not as well as the author who suggested that she was “Narrowly pipped” suggested.

    Sitting here with the Flu, well pee’d off and needing something to numb the pain. Jack or Jim? Daniels or Beam? Neither, it’s Lidl’s own brand for this broke and broken punter :cry:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1300721
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    She was like an F1 car with slick tyres on in the wet Stevie. She hated that ground – put a line through the run and wait for Royal Ascot.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1300727
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 34739

    16’s for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
    I didn’t see the race but the going sounded against Senga today.
    Is she going for the Coronation stakes, do we know…?

    Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

    #1300728
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4457

    Not sure Nath but 16’s would be big.

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #1300749
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8241

    She was like an F1 car with slick tyres on in the wet Stevie. She hated that ground – put a line through the run and wait for Royal Ascot.

    After I had calmed down I downsized my estimate slightly on how far Senga ran below her form today, from 20 lbs to 18 lbs. The Racing Post were slightly more generous than me, giving her 93 for today, 16 lbs below her RPR peak of 109.

    On the other side of the coin today’s winner Precieuse shot up from 98 to 113 on RPR, that’s am increase of 15 lbs and a “Swing to the Conservatives” of 31 lbs with Senga on their previous form. What chance do you have with that going on?

    Not sure if the ground explains the figures fully but it must have been a factor in such a poor run from a filly who had won the deemed main trial in some peoples opinion and she looked most unlucky in last season’s Boussac.

    Not sure if I trust Senga after that poor show today. I must admit to not knowing a lot about the sire’s record.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1300756
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8241

    The news regarding Senga had been so positive yesterday:-

    “She’s in good form. She learnt a lot in the Prix de la Grotte. She was a little underdone that day and has come on nicely and should be spot on for Saturday,” said Alan Cooper, racing manager for owners Flaxman Stables.

    “It is the second time this is being run on the straight track and John Gosden’s filly (Nathrah) was second from the same draw of 14 last year and there are a lot of good horses on the outside this year.

    “She’s a nice, big strong filly and we hope she can go forwards as the year goes on.”

    I am sure they will be as gutted as I am.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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