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FSL – I wouldn’t worry about the reserves, that is just luck I suspect and will turn around, you’re an awfy man for believing the gods are against you!
Keep making the decisions you believe are correct, worrying that you are wrong will lead to indecision, the enemy of the punter.
I think this thread is going well and, as Artemis says, it’s the long game that counts.
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 12:45 pm on Oct. 29, 2006[br]1pt ew Lucky 15
14:30G Sunshine Guest Place 4/1<br>14:30C Elvis Returns Absolutely nowhere<br>14:55W Usk Melody Placed at measly 10/3<br>15:50We The Journal 4th :(<br>Res 13:20C Omni Cosmo Touch 3rd (Unp)<br>
Returns 6.5pts<br>Loss 23.5pts<br>Overall Profit 21.7pts
I’m wondering if seeing the markets price up in the morning is distorting my views so I’ll post this one up tonight however I’m only going on the RP forecast prices and I could end up with a well backed favourite!
3:10P – Batchworth Beau – has been beaten 26l, 49l and 28l so the obvious suggestion is to stay well clear. However this is an awful race and it has the joint top RPR. It has never been able to get into the races its run in but in all honesty if it can’t get put into the race today it never will be. If I trained the horse I would tell the jockey to "anticipate" the start (tut tut) and try to make all. The reason I say this is becuase the favourite has no early speed and will get left behind if a brisk pace is set. I think Canatrice will frontrun and the faster the leader goes the more of a disadvantage the favourite will be at. Basically its a poor race but the horse is entitled to place at least.
1:20W – Cheveley Flyer – Pretty obvious selection with a slight concern its price will collapse from the 9/2 forecast.
1:50W – Gipsy Cricketer – Very consistent
1:00Wo – History Boy – Has a good level of form and it would need 3 of the newcomers to be very good fto to keep it from the places.
Res 3:35G – Leadmore – Surely only playing for 3rd
After a rant involving a poor ride, a dodgy trainer and some sharp practice I feel much better so i’d better delete the post.:cool:
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 4:22 pm on Oct. 30, 2006)
Won @6/1 (favourite never got to the front;) )<br>Won @ 10/1 (alarming drifter but still won;) )<br>3rd (field reduced to 7:( )<br>4th (I hate 4th may as well be last:( )
Stake 30pts<br>Returns 106.8pts<br>Profit 76.8pts<br>Overall Profit 98.5pts<br>
A more speculative L15 today as I’m not sure what will happening to the Sps of tight e/w horses due to the new regulation.
1:00C The Sawyer (just preferred to Carnival Town)<br>2:35N Hall of Fame<br>3:20C Marronier<br>4:30C Fountain Fortune
Now that first result is seriously upsetting:
1st Carnival Town 14/1<br>2nd Leading Contender 4/9f<br>3rd What A Scientist 33/1<br>4th The Sawyer 4/1
The thing that upsets me the most is the SPs. If I’d have known they were 4/1 and 14/1 it is pretty obvious which one i’d have gone for. The one I didn’t go for wins and the one I did is 4th. :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :(
two 4ths a 3rd and a nowhere.
Stake 30pts<br>Return 0pts<br>Loss 30pts :( <br>Overall Profit 68.5pts
FSL .. betting in multiples can be a bit confusing if you don’t work out your returns versus your outlay and therefore your proper odds correctly.
If you are bet 1 point and you return 1 point profit then your odds are 1 / 1 or even money. If you are laying out 30 points a go and you win 60 points back your odds are 60 / 30 or 2/1.
Then you have to ask yourself, if you were backing in straight singles what would your strike rate need to be to make a profit (and it’s around 40%). Then you have to ask yourself again is it likely that I am going to achieve this ?
If you had simply backed all of these horses in e/w singles to the same amount of stake money, you would be showing better profit ?
Won @6/1 (favourite never got to the front )<br>Won @ 10/1 (alarming drifter but still won )<br>3rd (field reduced to 7 )<br>4th (I hate 4th may as well be last )
Stake 30pts<br>Returns 106.8pts<br>Profit 76.8pts<br>
3.5 pts e/w on each returns<br>21 + 35 – (7) = +49 wins<br>4.2 + 7 (-7) = +4.2
52.2 profit .. but you would have laid off the 7 runner race for a guarenteed loss of 8.2 pts (+10% betfair) -1.4, which would push your overall profit up by 6 pts to 58 pts.
Another advantage of singles is that you can back more than one horse in the field to oppose the favourite. If you wanted to do this with multiples your stakes increase exponentially and you end up with twice the amount of stakes on some horses.
Just a few thoughts !<br>:cool:
Interesting thoughts Dave Jay, but the aim of the system is to find 4 placed horses rather than 1 or 2 winners. <br>eg<br>Pla 5/1<br>Pla 5/1<br>Pla 5/1<br>Pla 5/1
Backing these as each/way singles would break even, but an e/w L15 returns 50pts profit. It is my fault the system is not functioning properly because I am not picking the right horses given the odds available. The problem I have is I don’t know what the SP will be, however I know I will be better off betting at SP. Take Carnival Town; I didn’t know that would be 14/1 I assumed that it would go off at the same price as The Sawyer (I thought it would be 8/1). I decided The Sawyer had a better chance of placing based on its consistent ratings of 105 (I think, without rechecking) except on its last start when I assumed its stamina ran out. It had run well fresh before and as it had been relatively well backed at 11AM I assumed it was ready to do itself justice. Carnival Town was almost guaranteed to improve on 95? granted a clear round but given it had been pulled up in 2/4 starts i didn’t know how likely that would be. However if I knew the odds were 4/1 and 14/1 then its pretty obvious I’d go for the 14/1.
I take on board you point about e/w singles Dave jay but I feel the system has the potential to be successful granted a slightly better selection method and if i was more knowledgeable about SPs.<br>
(Edited by FlatSeasonLover at 9:15 pm on Nov. 1, 2006)
Only time will tell FSL .. the way I see it the out of the 30 bets that you place with a lucky15 the one most likely to come up is the place part of the singles, then the place doubles and then the win singles (depending on the prices).
Good luck anyway .. !<br>:biggrin: :cool:
All change I see on the racing post website.
Okay lets go for a 1pt ew Lucky 15 again
13:20T Smoothly Does It (hopefully:biggrin: )<br>14:20T Ring Back<br>14:45H Dead Mans Dante (hopefully he does better than last time)<br>14:45C Coljon<br>Res 13:50T Yassar
Place 5/1<br>Place 7/2<br>Unp (@ 9/1)<br>Place 5/2
Clearly the new SP rules have had quite an impact. As a result I will now have to start taking prices for trappy e/w races.
Return 20.2pts<br>Loss 9.8pts<br>Overall Profit 58.7pts
The overrounds for these races were ..
13.20 .. 117% / 11 runners<br>14.20 .. 124% / 14 runners<br>14.45 .. 111% / 8 runners<br>14.45 .. 106% / 5 runners
I think the 14.20 was an absolute scandal .. !
A couple of points.
Multiple bets such as the Lucky 15 are popular with bookmakers, but they don’t like paying Triple odds for 1 winner because it severely reduces the profitabilty of the bet. There are no bonuses for horses placing, so the layers are pleased to see ew multiples except where the backer is trying a bit of the old ew thievery, (which has been undermined with reduced SPs). I would think very hard about whether the place part of the Lucky 15 is capable of pulling its weight.
Singles are without doubt the best way to bet with serious money, but offer limited levels of excitement and opportunities for the modest staker, so if you are betting on Lucky 15s, you have to pay a premium in the form of reduced profitabilty for the opportunity of a decent pay out. In my case, and probably yours as well, FSL, it is worth paying because we get a it back in excitement (the prospect of 3 or 4 winners).
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