- This topic has 105 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
A real toss up between Bradley Boy and The Hollow Bottom in the 2:50 but the latter may be a course specialist and has shown a tendency to hang left.
1pt ew patent
2:50W Bradley Boy<br>3:30N Sagredo<br>4:45P La Marianne (very poor place terms)
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 11:18 am on Oct. 18, 2006[br]A real toss up between Bradley Boy and The Hollow Bottom in the 2:50 but the latter may be a course specialist and has shown a tendency to hang left.
1pt ew patent
2:50W Bradley Boy<br>3:30N Sagredo<br>4:45P La Marianne (very poor place terms)
After correctly picking Bradley Boy I was getting excited but I shouldn’t have bothered. With hindsight any selection in the 4:45P race was a mistake becuase the bookies were firmly in control of the place terms. I did think Bradley Boy got a very good ride for what its worth too. The other jockeys kicked for home a long way out but he held fire and sat still on Bradleys Boy. Despite a couple of sketchy jumps the horse had plenty of petrol left and strongly ran on past two running on empty.
Won @ 8/1<br>Pla @ 5/1<br>Unp
Stake 14pts <br>Return 18.8pts (I think – this is without proper bet calculator)<br>Profit 4.8pts<br>Overall Profit 106.1pts
Some good priced winners FSL.
It’s easier to pick four a day than one a day, if that makes sense. If you had to pick just one(as in the naps competition), you would often miss the winner(s) in your four picks.
It seems illogical, I know, but if you have a decent method for making selections, the Lucky 15 can be a better bet than singles only, provided you get triple odds for a winner.
Keep up the good work: still well in front.
Watson Lake needs to drift big time and unless you fancy gambling on it (silly question on a racing forum doh!) then Mattock Ranger would be a substitute suggestion
2:20L Lease<br>2:30B Benllech (should sneak 3rd with the NR)<br>3:40H Orpen Wide<br>4:15P Watson Lake<br>Res 4:45P Mattock Ranger
Well I have said before today I’m an unlucky punter :(
Some interesting betting saw Lease go off at 11/4 and run a stinker and Watson Lake go off at 6/4 :(
My misery is compounded by the fact that the reserve won at 11/2. Now that is rough luck. With the day I had I’m just glad it made a profit.
Unp<br>Pla @ 8/1<br>Won @ 13/2<br>Pla @ 6/4<br>(Res W @ 11/2)
Stake 30pts<br>Return 47.7pts<br>Profit 17.7ptrs<br>Overall Profit 123.8pts
(backing the reserve instead of Watson Lake as some of you may have done would have yielded a return of 98.6pts for a 68.6pt profit)
I had a couple of nice ones lined up at Newbury but never mind it will now be a 1pt ew patent. There was some real headscratching in the 3:25L between Mutoon and Tebee but the latter is less likely to need the run and shouldn’t get left behind but its always with unraced horses but it is also strong in the market so I am as confident as I can be about an unraced horse that it will place.
2:20L Gold Hush<br>3:25L Tebee<br>5:25F Mischief Man
I upped my stake today and got bugger all back :(
I should have known that the 3:25 was too risky but Mischief Man didn’t work out. After Newbury was abandoned i hould have done the same lol
Pla 10/1<br>Unp<br>Unp
Stake 14pts<br>Return 3pts<br>Loss 11pts<br>Overall Profit 112.8pts
Enough for two Lucky 15s today but I’ve condensed them down to a single Lucky 15. The 4:30L is a seemingly high class contest with many decent looking horses making their debut. I’m going to take a bit of a chance with Clouded Leopard in the hope that money comes late.
2:05N Dijeerr<br>3:15N Thouand Words<br>4:00L Landolozi<br>3:30L Clouded Leopard 14/1 (with Betfred who pay trip odds)<br>Res 1:10A Total Victory
I hope the reserve winning is a sign of future successes and i haven’t picked wrong again!:biggrin:
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 12:16 pm on Oct. 21, 2006[br]Enough for two Lucky 15s today but I’ve condensed them down to a single Lucky 15. The 4:30L is a seemingly high class contest with many decent looking horses making their debut. I’m going to take a bit of a chance with Clouded Leopard in the hope that money comes late.
2:05N Dijeerr<br>3:15N Thouand Words<br>4:00L Landolozi<br>3:30L Clouded Leopard 14/1 (with Betfred who pay trip odds)<br>Res 1:10A Total Victory<br>
Aaargh picked the wrong one for reserve! Should have put Thousand Words as the reserve but profit has is the name of the system so can’t be too unhappy
Won @ 9/2<br>Unp<br>Pla @ 3/1 (heavily backed)<br>Pla @ 14/1(didn’t turn out to be a risk at all)
Stake 30pts<br>Return 49.7pts<br>Profit 19.7pts<br>Overall Profit 132.5pts
This is going really well FSL. I’m tempted to start backing them too but, as you know from our poker forays, that would be the kiss of death!
Well they’ve survived me backing them but I dare say you might be the final straw for them Cormack!
Did anyone read about the changes that are coming in on Nov 1st? They are designed to hit each-way thieves by reducing the sp of runners where there is an odds on favourite. I may find it hard work from November onwards but I’ll see how it goes before deciding whether to stop or not.
I didn’t think they(the bookmakers) would let the party go on for ever.
EW betting will certainly be less profitable along with SP betting, although we’ve already said that you really have to take a price in most cases unless what you are offered is poor value.
I notice that Betfred, who pay triple odds, one winner, in lucky 15s, price up races very cagily early in the day, often betting to 2% per runner at least. They are nearly always shorter than most of the major layers on the first three in the market. If you wait until about 12.30pm, they are usually on a par with everyone else.
I read about the changes to SP FSL .. it could have quite a big impact on all punting activity … trimming up the prices at the head of the market with the bookies effectively creating an Industry SP will hurt everybody, not just e/w thieves.
Members of forum’s as clued up as they make out they are, don’t seem to realise how important this latest round of skullduggery is. Offering odds of 25/1 about a 100/1 shot is completely different to offering 15/8 about a horse that should be 2/1.<br>
1pt ew Lucky 15
1:35W Hot Zone<br>3:20A Il Duce<br>5:00A Balamory Dan (There are 4 with good chances here – this one is best priced)<br>3:00T Supreme Catch (Again this is not the obvious selection but I don’t agree it that it will definitely need the run though there is an element of risk)
Regarding the SP changes I found it very strange that no-one has even mentioned it on TRF. Shorter priced SP favourites aren’t the end of the world for me as I rarely back favs and take the price when I do but as you say Dave jay the each way horses will be cut in price big time beacuse the SP will be composed by bookies offering e/w on course rather than those offering win only.
I’m suprised at the lack of debate too FSL .. I posted a thread about the govt selling off the Tote .. no response to that either .. I shouldn’t be suprised really. Both issues are more important than anything because it’s the gambling market efficiency or lack of it that keeps us all interested. And without the ricks or the ability to be able to back at a realistic price we won’t be bothering in the long run.
Most of us that have a clue know how these changes will effect the market. A while ago I wrote some market calculating tools for a gambling friend. When I put these in reverse I can work out the revised win market using the same co-efficients. I won’t be betting until the effects have come into force and I’ve got some data together. At the minute I work out the market at 1.4% per runner and then work the place market from the rounded off total .. the article in the Guardian says that the bookies aim to fix the return at 2% per runner, that’s 0.4% per runner BIGGER than the FSP in the racing post (1.6%). <br>:angry: <br>
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.