- This topic has 12 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 12 months ago by
.
- Posts
The weights have been framed for this superb race which challenges the best of sprint race followers every year!
Obviously at this early stage the ground is an unknown but generally we should be guessing gd/firm will prevail however with this years rain who knows!
The vital elements are getting a good draw (higher the better as the winner invariably grabs that far rail) unless you are remarkably fast away ala Captain Dunne last season from trap 9!
Having reviewed the race from last year numerous times there are a few hard luck stories but the horse that interests me is SOHRAAB[/color:yt0w5yl6] at 20s from the Hughie Morrison yard who was beaten less than a length from the worst draw of all in trap 1!! His one fault is that he can at times miss the break and you very rarely win this race if that occurs on the day. Given better luck in the draw he will be my one to cheer home.
The 2 others that I can see performing well are old favourite CAPTAIN DUNNE [/color:yt0w5yl6]who ran a blinder to win last year and NIGHT CARNATION [/color:yt0w5yl6]from one of my favourite yards of Andrew Balding! Both have the class to carry a big weight and given luck in the draw must run well at 14s and 12s. Sadly my initial fancy Confessional has run himself out of the race having be raised for some good runs.
Comments/views very welcome
CONFESSIONAL
is one of my sprinters to follow this season, but I have the suspicion that he would prefer a bit of cut so ground come June may not be ideal.
STEPS
and
LONG AWAITED
would my other two choices at this early stage, both look to be improving.
Rich, i’d wait a while before backing Confessional mate, he (like a lot of the Dash entries is also entered for the Temple) however Captain Dunne is not! Mr Easterby is not afraid to send more than one to the Dash but i still believe Captain Dunne is suited to Epsom better and also should Sohraab get a decent draw he will run a huge race.
The draw has been made and HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY
My ante post selections have been drawn double figures which is all you can ask for!
Sohraab (19) will probably come too late again!
Captain Dunne (11) could have been higher but given fast ground WILL take all the beating.
TAPK’s Jamesway (18) is ideally berthed as long as he gets away! If he drops out last again and tries to come through them all it will be very hard!
Finally: Judge N Jury (14) ridden by the very, very capable 5lb claimer Darren Egan will attempt to blast out and make all.
With the 3yo Bear Behind drawn 20 he will make em go before fading tamely over 1f out. Desert Law (16) is class but surely needs 6f!
Great race in store
Sohraab would surely have won last year but for a horror draw – i backed him at monster prices on BF, he was the outsider of the entire field.
He is 4lb higher, but as you say drawn better and will surely go close if "tuned". I’m not getting involved as i’m not convinced he’s in the same form, but i wish you well.
PC: He had no right to finish so close last year from that draw so IF Hughie has him right he will go very close
My main fancy is now Judge N Jury but if any win I will be happy
Not sure that Arctic Feeling is suited to the course but he is now 14lbs lower than last year. He ought to be closer than last year when well backed.
Tough race this but after a bit of admittedly selective analysis I came to the following conclusion
Captain Dunne @ 10/1
– widely available.
Captain Dunne’s record when racing over 5f (ignore his form over 6f, he has never won over that far and clearly doesn’t stay) on ground with Firm in the description;
May 07, Hay 5GF, 1/9
Jun 08, Lei 5GF, 3/9
Jul 08, Yor 5GF, 2/8
Jun 09, Eps 5GF, 2/18
Aug 09, Yor 5GF, 5/17
Sep 09, Bev 5GF, 1/7
Apr 10, Nwc 5GF, 2/9
May 10, Thi 5GF, 2/7
Jun 10, Eps 5GF, 12/19 (Uncharacteristically missed break)
Jun 10, Nwc 5GF, 1/11
Jul 10, Chs 5GF, 2/8
Apr 11, Not 5GF, 6/9 (First Time Out)
May 11, Chs 5GF, 2/13
Jun 11, Eps 5GF, 1/16Transposed that reads 13225122012621 which is ultra consistent form for a sprint handicapper.
As mentioned above there are only two real bad runs in that sequence;
1. The time he missed the break in this race in 2010 and we all know you have no chance in this race if that happens (it was sandwiched between a 2nd and 1st in this race in 2009 and 2011 when he did break smartly). He also went on to win a month later off a 1lb higher mark proving there was no long term issue.
2. The poor run first time out at Nottingham in April 2011 but his lifetime FTO figures read 709266 so I’m prepared to ignore that one based on his subsequent 2nd a month later at Chester which was followed up with a win in this race.
As I said at the start, I may have been selective with my form reading but;
– The trainer’s recent form is good enough.
– The horse has been drawn 11 which is okay given he has excellent initial speed – which is close to a necessity in this race.
– He has proven that he likes the course.
– Runs off the same mark as when winning last year and
– The weather forecast would indicate the ground should be on the quick side with no rain forecast.
I see him, Judge ‘N Jury and Bear Behind blazing the trail with the Captain forging ahead as they hit the 2f pole ala 2009 & 2011 and just holding off the challenges of latecomers, e.g. last year’s placed horses.
Déja Vu anybody ?
Lee
Deja vu I do hope so. We are involved with Captain Dunne & last year was amazing. So fingers crossed.
Desert Law (16) is class but surely needs 6f!
Great race in store
I’ve been keeping an eye on Desrt Law for some time GDC. Travels so well at 6f that should be at least as good over 5f. Is a bit of a worry Epsom is so sharp, but he’s unexposed at the trip and probably has improvement in him. Looks excellent value to me at around 12/1 and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Tom Segal go for Desert Law tomorrow.
Value Is EverythingI always had the impression Stone of Folca was a "short runner", so i suppose if he ever going to stay 5f it was downhill at Epsom. He didn’t look to be stopping mind, perhaps strengthened up from 3 to 4, entirely possible.
If he has he could remain well treated, but i wouldn’t fancy him over 6f at all so the Wokie / Stewards Cup / Ayr GC are off the agenda i would imagine.
I think they’re aiming Stone at the Kings Stand PC.
If he is to win in Group company, then it’ll probably be the King George (Group 3) over Goodwood’s fast 5f.
Value Is EverythingI think they’re aiming Stone at the Kings Stand PC.
If he is to win in Group company, then it’ll probably be the King George (Group 3) over Goodwood’s fast 5f.
The target doesn’t suprise me, and i would not be suprised to see him trade very short before failing to get home (Again!). Then again, he may have strengthened up and get home ok, but i doubt it.
I agree about your Goodwood Group 3 comment.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.