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Somewhere in Berkshire, late 2011.
Marketing Bod: Hi guys, Denman’s retired. We should name a race after him.
Senior Racecourse Bod: Hmm, I don’t think Hennessy will be too pleased. If we dilute the name of their race, they might dilute the free Cognac we get from them.
Marketing Bod: Hmmm. What about that race where he won it one time by beating three horses, then the next year he got dicked out of sight by Madison Du frickin’ Berlais (bless ‘im), and the other time he jumped like a twat and unseated McCoy?
Senior Racecourse Bod: You’re a genius! Have a pay rise.
Right now, February 2012.
The market for the Denman has opened. Here’s my run down.
Aiteen Thirtythree: A horse who is the epitome of ‘mediocre’. Pulled up in the RSA, then went to the Hennessy as pretty-much-favourite and then ran really, really badly. Nicholls is clutching at straws, I think.
VERDICT: Just writing about him made me sleepy.Burton Port: What happened the last time this ‘un ran against Long Run? Answers on a postcard please to: FiveLongDays’ Flat Of Iniquity, Vange, Basildon, Essex. I really like this horse, actually, as he’s as gutsy as, but he’s got to be up against it in his first run since last November. Still, you wouldn’t be surprised to see him bag a place, and at the odds, each-way is a serious option.
VERDICT: A win would be one of the all-time great training performances, but a place would cause wry smiles and shrugged shoulders.Carruthers: He won the Hennessy. Hurrah! His jockey is, by all accounts, a nice enough bloke. Hurrah! His owner is Lord Oaksey, all-round good egg. Hurrah! He’s not going to win this, even though he’s got good form here. Not Hurrah!
VERDICT: Can’t the race be decided by how nice the horse’s owners are? Likes the course, though.Halley: A five-year-old French import who’s entered in the Gold Cup? Surely he must be pretty special. Oh, wait, he isn’t.
VERDICT: Non.Little Josh: ‘E’s so li’uhl! An’ ‘e ain’t never won over this distance befowah! ‘An ‘e’s only an ‘andicapper, bless ‘im, an’ ‘e’s so li’uhl it breaks yer bleedin’ ‘eart.
VERDICT: ‘E’s Only A Tiny Tot!Long Run: Probably will win, probably should win, but at odds-on, who cares? The only interesting thing is that if he does, then his odds for the Gold Cup will contract to somewhere around the ‘bad favourite’ mark. Bah, I’m hoping for a Kauto win, anyway.
VERDICT: Why not take that risk and take him on?Medermit: See Little Josh, except with the Senile London accent surgically removed. Probably a better horse than that, though.
VERDICT: For cryin’ out loud, he’s a two-and-a-half miler, nothing more.Mr Moonshine: He’s the Token Novice, he came third in the Peterborough, then he got tonked in the Feltham. Possibly interesting, but probably not.
VERDICT: See Carruthers, except ‘nicest owner’ should be replaced with ‘coolest name’ and ‘course form’ removed.The Giant Bolster: Sometimes he jumps well and wins. Otherwise, he jumps badly and falls. Which one is it to be. Oh, and the last time he ran here, he couldn’t beat Time For Rupert. And Time For Rupert’s crap!
VERDICT: Do you honestly want to put money on a horse who, the last time he raced at this sort of level, lost to Time For sodding Rupert?Tidal Bay: Another ‘interesting’ one. The Law of Averages dictates that, sooner or later, that strong late running will end up with him winning. However, he did run pretty recently, so he might not run in this. Hmmm.
VERDICT: File under ‘interesting’.What A Friend: What? (scowling face, shaven head, goatee) A Friend! (Cheesy Grin, Thumbs Up). What? Horse Friend! What? Alex Ferguson Friend! What? Actually Not A Bad Horse Friend! What? Beat Imperial Commander Friend! What? Good fourth in the Gold Cup Friend! What? Could Come Good This Time Of Year Friend! What? Might Not Like The Ground Friend! What? Awww, Friend!
VERDICT: Not sure to ‘Gimme a Hell Yeah’ or just point out ‘he’s not my ******’ friend’.Anyway, thus endeth the lesson. Let the debate begin!
FLD
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Nice write up fld, you don’t so this enough…….I still remember Punchy…..aah Punchy!!!!
Nice write up fld, you don’t so this enough…….I still remember Punchy…..aah Punchy!!!!
That’s because some other bugger’s usually beaten me to it. Whatever happened to Punchy, anyway?
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
What A Friend: What? (scowling face, shaven head, goatee) A Friend! (Cheesy Grin, Thumbs Up). What? Horse Friend! What? Alex Ferguson Friend! What? Actually Not A Bad Horse Friend! What? Beat Imperial Commander Friend! What? Good fourth in the Gold Cup Friend! What? Could Come Good This Time Of Year Friend! What? Might Not Like The Ground Friend! What? Awww, Friend!
VERDICT: Not sure to ‘Gimme a Hell Yeah’ or just point out ‘he’s not my ******’ friend’. FLDAnd that’s the bottom line…
Small bets on Carruthers and Burton Port for me. Not a great race for favourites, I believe.
Carruthers is, apparently, stronger, stays very well, and jumps so boldly and enthusiatically from the front, it can have other horses in trouble before long. Ever hopeful.
Definitely Medermit for me. 14’s seems a very fair price.
I know there’s talk in some quarter that he may go for The Gold Cup, but I hope he wins this and still heads for The Ryanair. I’ve only included him in a couple of multis so far, but really fancy him for The Ryanair, and would be one of my bigger bets at The Festival.
Carruthers adores small fields & has performed well around Newbury, but he needs to improve a stone to get near Long Run, as most of them do.
I’ll be on The Giant Bolster each way. Different tactics LTO and he blasted off in front which helped his jumping. I think he can see off Caruthers for the lead and is the obvious one for the forecast. A couple could be non stayers, a couple are too slow.
Carruthers adores small fields & has performed well around Newbury, but he needs to improve a stone to get near Long Run, as most of them do.
I know, Zark. I bet on him in the Gold Cup, but something tells me he might never fulfill his remaining potential. But I don’t think it’s based on reason, or intuition, so much as a wish to get a better price about another horse.
I have a feeling that Long Run will win this easily but will get turned over in the Gold Cup.
Strange time to have this race though, half 12 in the afternoon.
Conceding 10lbs to Burton Port and What A Friend is quite a task for Long Run. I hope What A Friend wins or goes very close here to maintain my view that he has big chance in the Gold Cup.
It will also be interesting to see how Burton Port gets on. If he runs near his best, we can get an idea of how a peak form Diamond Harry rates in comparison to Long Run. That could be very useful information now that DH has had his breathing patched up.
I think Long Run is well up to the task of giving weight all round to this field.
I suggest SWC takes the bull by the horns and kicks on four out.
Just a thought.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
It’s quite easy to get lost in the formbook for a race like this – four of the six runners represent the two most powerful yards in the country.
What A Friend is offically rated 12lb superior to his stablemate Tidal Bay, but Ruby is booked to ride the latter. What A Friend has a couple of tougher assignments in the near future, so will he be fully tuned for this after a lengthy absence? Tidal Bay is…well, Tidal Bay. You gotta love the ol’ enigmatic, equine professor, but he’s not one to rely on, is he? Another who has a couple of big targets coming up in the near future. Oh, for those interested the current score is Tidal Bay 2 : Ruby Walsh 0.
With many questioning the respective ability of Waley-Cohen, he has a talented stablemate in the shape of Burton Port, ridden by a man that many feel would make Long Run an entirely different proposition. Waley-Cohen Snr has expressed an ‘over my dead body’ stance to his baby boy being jocked off and all eyes will be on the reigning Gold Cup champion. A champion who has plenty to prove at present after being handed his rump by a reckless OAP trying to recapture his youth!
Burton Port is the proverbial ‘small horse with a big heart’. He arguably would not be the hardest to get fit and goes well fresh. Runner-up in both the RSA and Hennessy, Newbury plays to his strengths and he is a danger if back to his best. Considering his last effort was November 2010, that has to be a big question mark.
One can argue that The Giant Bolster has plenty to find, particuarly with a 6lb penalty, but after laughing at Prestbury Park last time out I argue that perhaps this is a new dawning for the horse. Granted a new role that he approached with plenty of enthusiasm, The Giant Bolster ran his rivals ragged and basically won as he pleased. Only a 7YO, there could be more to come and who is there to challenge him for supremacy at the head of the field?
Long Run is clearly the one to beat, but he is being asked to concede 10lb to some established, quality animals. The problem is that these rivals have question marks of their own and it could be left to the one horse who really shouldn’t win on offical ratings to come out on top in what could prove a tactical affair – The Gaint Bolster. Fresh from his a recent success, there are no question marks over his fitness and he could enjoy an uncontested lead up front. The one horse who could quite easily take him on is the favourite, but how will his jumping stand up? With that in mind, how will The Giant Bolster’s if challenged early on?!
Intriguing contest on so many levels.
Nice analysis there, Bosranic. I like your point about the race becoming a tactical affair. It would be very frustrating if there was a muddling pace as its relevance to the Gold Cup would be minimal.
I think the Paul Nicholls jockey bookings are unimportant, though. Daryl Jacob will ride What A Friend at Cheltenham so it makes sense for him to keep the ride here. I share your concerns about him possibly being a little short of fitness, though. Nevertheless, my optimism for What A Friend is bolstered since The
Denman
Chase is probably quite important to the stable. DUCY?
I think if any horse is going to be short of fitness, it could be Long Run. This is his prep after all.
Copy of my recent blog post:
Two short-priced Festival favourites have their final prep races at Newbury tomorrow. The exciting Sprinter Sacre – held in stratospheric regard by trainer Henderson and jockey Geraghty – is 9/4 fav for the Arkle and 4/7 to win the Game Spirit Chase (12.10) tomorrow.
He looks a potential superstar after two wins from two steeplechases and should he win tomorrow, that Arkle 9/4 could shorten to 5/4. But I think it’s worth taking the chance that Zaynar (9/1 with Ladbrokes) might lead all the way. The 2009 Triumph Hurdle winner seems to have responded well to a change of trainer and has shown huge zest in his last two runs.
I think he might benefit significantly from this return to 17f having looked stretched over Ascot’s 22f last time. He’s a classy horse with considerably more experience than Sprinter Sacre and I think, given his price, it’s well worth taking a chance that he will outbattle Sprinter Sacre and throw the Arkle market into disarray.
Half an hour after this race, Gold Cup holder and current favourite for a successful defence, Long Run, will start around 1/2 to beat five others in the Betfair Denman Chase. Long Run has a fine engine but a dodgy chassis as he doesn’t arch his back properly when under pressure, a weakness which condemns him to dragging his hind legs through fences.
A six-runner race would, on paper, be ideal as the pace in such races is often fairly sedate. But Tom Scudamore, who excels in front-running rides, will ensure from the outset that his mount, The Giant Bolster has the rest playing catch-up. On the face of it, TGB has plenty to do – he gets 4lbs from Long Run but has to concede 6lbs to the others. Backing him requires a leap of faith in his potential – much more so than with Zaynar.
He’s regularly shown potential but, due to his tendency to make mistakes, his copybook has more blots than a Rorschach test. However, last time out he finally got everything right and looked a proper horse in doing so, annihilating 9 opponents in a good quality handicap at Cheltenham over 21f. Tomorrow’s extra three furlongs should see him operating to optimum effect and if his fencing is accurate, he might just force the favourite into some energy-sapping errors.
The defeat of Long Run by any of tomorrow’s opponents will be a shock, but if it is to happen then the unexposed TGB is most likely, in my opinion, to pull it off.
Both races mentioned have 6 runners. Bookies pay 1/4 odds 1st and 2nd on EW bets and I think two small stake singles and an EW double on Zaynar and The Giant Bolster could well bring a profit, perhaps a big one. Ladbrokes offer best prices at the moment of 9/1 and 14/1 respectively.
Good luck
Joe
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