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Well done Young Mick.
Flash – I think Twice over was a ridiculous price today, and his only strong piece of form was outstaying a non-stayer.
Casual Conquest takes a lot of beating if he lines up now.Whay happened Centennial? very disappointing.
Seems McCartney will in fact need a softer surface (
LGR). His action is quite round and you could see that quite some way out he wasn’t going to win.Which gave him a rating thirty odd pounds higher than todays winners previous and he’d already won over the trip. Come on. Any horse that gets beaten you can always find a way to reason it afterwards but where on earth was there anything at all that said Twice Over wouldn’t beat Tartan Bearer today? Unless you completely ignore everything and just plump for a favourite jockey or trainer every bit of logic suggested Twice Over would rout these.
The ground? No I can’t have that as an excuse. That said I haven’t a clue how to explain that result.
Agree about the price though, I don’t do odds on at all.
I dont think Twice Over will get the Derby distance to be honest. Don’t think the ground was the problem today.
McCartney does seem to want softer going, although has won on firm ground in the past, but has a very high, round action.
No – it didn’t. You must have been sucked in by the hype if that’s what you believe. I laid him and said as much on another forum prior to the race.
He didn’t have any group race form at 2, and outstayed a non-stayer over 7f at 3. Make what you want of that, but there was every likelihood that one of the other 5 would potentially beat/improve past him.
There was also the worry he wouldn’t be suited by the fast ground, and perhaps that played a part.
I myself didn’t think it would be Tartan Bearer, but felt Twice Over was a 6/4 shot as opposed to odds on.
My eyes popped out of my head when i saw the price,,,
crazyFlash…without stating the obvious, surely no hard and fast assumptions can be made about any horses rating at this stage of their career?
Flash,
Tartan Bearer is a full brother to Golan, he is entitled to have some of his brothers ability and improve.
JohnJ.
Which gave him a rating thirty odd pounds higher than todays winners previous and he’d already won over the trip.
You cant really compare a 2yo 1m2f race to a 3yo 1m2f race, as generally most of the horses who will go for the 1m2f 2yo races are absolute garbage full of staying hopefuls or shorter trip failures/unimpressive sorts. Usually 1mile is where you would want a decent middle distance sort to be running at the end of their 2yo campaigns imo. IMo a lot of good 1m2f colts will be running at 7f very well at 2, and that is probably were you will get the equivalent belnd of speed and stamina.
Which gave him a rating thirty odd pounds higher than todays winners previous and he’d already won over the trip.
You cant really compare a 2yo 1m2f race to a 3yo 1m2f race, as generally most of the horses who will go for the 1m2f 2yo races are absolute garbage full of staying hopefuls or shorter trip failures/unimpressive sorts. Usually 1mile is where you would want a decent middle distance sort to be running at the end of their 2yo campaigns imo. IMo a lot of good 1m2f colts will be running at 7f very well at 2, and that is probably were you will get the equivalent belnd of speed and stamina.
Maybe, maybe not Bulwark but you find me one thing in the form book that pointed to that result. Who would’ve laid Twice Over heavily?
I liked how Tartan Bearer plugged on when Frozen Fire came to challenge, but TBH given he was held up for so long and was still just holding on come the finish I’d have my doubts about him over 12f, although he’s bred to get the trip. At least with the second being a Coolmore horse we’ll now hopefully be spared the indignity of having Henrythenavigator run in the Derby just to supply his stable with "a live chance".
Henry Cecil is apparently not keen on running Twice Over at Epsom now, quite understandably given there seem to be no excuses for today’s disappointment. I wonder if this will tempt Khalid Abdullah to supplement Doctor Fremantle, with his original target at the Curragh now looking so hot in comparison?
Its a culmination of two things, Twice Over had never been campaigned for this surface and there must have been a question as to why, and his trainer was very apprehensive about running him on it today, and he was very weak in the market. Also there is the improvement of the others.
Ive said all along that stoute usually has his 100% for the trials and he has picked up the three big british colts trials now.
The battle between centennial and mccartney has led to a decent pace and the first two have went very well, twice over wasnt completely disgraced, but has been proved to have been mostly hype.
Overall it is hardly the shock of the century that he has been beaten.
Another point to note is that Gosdens big april foursome (that were once 250-1 for a classic clean sweep) have all been put to bed now. He has cleared had them tuned up early.
Interesting that Ladbrokes are a stand out 10-1 about Frozen Fire for epsom. What do they know (apart from obviously no horse beaten in the dante has ever won the derby)?
Ladbrokes have generally taken a stand against the Dante race full stop….the winner is 7/1 with them.
What price is Kingdom of Naples with Ladbrokes?
Wonder is the plan to give him an easier race in the Gallinule before the Derby? There s 2 weeks between which should be sufficient.
Tartan Bearer just about deserves to be favourite I’d say but I’d have a different view should Weld supplement Casual Conquest. I thought it was a likeable performance and very professional considering it was just his third start. Although it isn’t all that easy to confidently assess how much he achieved today, I’d be surprised if it wasn’t at least as much as any of the other trial winners. The effort of the runner-up too was clearly meritorious but it did nothing to alter my view that he’s somewhat quirky with his head carriage leaving something to be desired whilst he also hung pretty badly right.
I don’t think 7/1 will last long, particularly considering the next best price is 11/2.
Take that back. Paddy Power’s odds compilers initially went 5’s but it looks like they are getting money for old rope because they’ve now copied Ladbrokes and gone 7’s.
This year’s Derby sure is wide open.
Take your pick.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Current impressions for me are that Im not bowled over with any of the leaders in the market at the moment and beginning to wonder about Rio de la Plata
Cant quite work out his chances of staying, but given the stables form, the french guineas run was pretty good…. and he was plugging on
25/1 in places
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