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This year’s Dante looks like it might be the only trial that provides a serious contender for the Derby.
Aiden O’Brien has a strong, and surprising looking entry, given that two of his main hopes have finished last this year and the other missed a race after scoping badly.
John F Kennedy gives the Derrinstown a miss on Sunday and that, along with Zawraq’s defection leaves the Leopardstown trial looking weak this year. Mind you, a lot was said about last year’s 1-2-3 going to Epsom with big chances and arguments quite strong regarding which one held the best chance. In the end, none of them landed a blow.
John F Kennedy is joined in the Dante entries by 2000 Guineas flop Ol’ Man River. While the son of Montjeu and Finscial Beo may run better this time, it’s a big concern for me that he was so tame at Newmarket. I just couldn’t select him for the Dante after such a dismal run.
John F Kennedy has to have come on a lot from his disappointing first run and I would take heart that he heads here instead of the easier option at Leopardstown. The only question is whether the trainer’s hand was forced by the forecast soft ground in Ireland.
Giovanni Canaletto was still green and raw when he won his maiden in good style last year and he looked a horse sure to improve further. The problem is that he was due to run in The Chester Vase until he scoped badly and will now have to tackle both a shorter trip and better, maybe faster, horses at York.
Just to make sure he’s covered enough bases Aiden has entered Aloft here as well, and he was runner up to Elm Park in the Racing Post Trophy, albeit a bit in arrears of the Andrew Balding Guineas defector, who didn’t get his ground at Newmarket.
Elm Park is said to be on target for the Dante and he looks like getting better ground here, with the current going given as Good, good to soft in places and a little bit of rain forecast for Wednesday. You would think Elm Park needs to run really well here to justify general second favouritism for the Derby and it will be a blow to his chances if they don’t get a race into him prior to Epsom.
John Gosden has two right in the mix, in the form of the promising Golden Horn and the runaway handicap winner and current Derby favourite Jack Hobbs. I thought they might be kept apart, especially with Jack Hobbs being favourite for the Dante as well as the Derby.
Barry Hills’ Nafaqa, who defected from the Derby and then came out of the Dee Stakes due to the soft ground completes the more likely sorts according to the betting, as it is 25/1 bar those mentioned already.
Conclusion:-
With Aiden having four in here and questions about most of them, it seems wise to look elsewhere. Perhaps not all four will run, so you are guessing a bit on that score. I have to leave Ol’ Man River and John F Kennedy out of it and Giovanni Canaletto will need to be very smart to win this on his first venture out of maiden company. Aloft has already been beaten by Elm Park and I don’t think Nafaqa is up to this level. Jack Hobbs seems the more obvious of the Gosden two but he’s awfully short at 2/1, given he’s coming in from handicap company. He’s clearly group class but how good is he? Elm Park has the class and should get some juice in the ground, if he can’t handle a track like York he won’t cope with Epsom. I would suggest him as the value at 7/2, over John F Kennedy at the same odds and Jack Hobbs at 2/1. If there is a decent price for Jack Hobbs to win this race and the Derby I would recommend backing him as that option. If he wins this I think he’ll probably win the Derby and if he doesn’t I can’t see him lifting the big one. Elm Park is not recommended for the same bet with the concern that he might not handle the track at Epsom. Just backing him for this would seem the more logical bet.
Early Betting:-
Jack Hobbs 2/1
Elm Park 7/2
John F Kennedy 7/2
Golden Horn 5/1
Ol’ Man River 6/1
Giovanni Canaletto 8/1
Aloft 10/1
Nafaqa 10/1
Decorated Knight 25/1
Jinsha Lake 33/1
Lord Ben Stack 50/1
(Tote/Betfred)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Emma Spencer is supposed to have some inside info on Giovanni Canaletto, according to the intimation made on Channel 4 today. She has, apparently, been told that they are going to struggle to get a run into him before Epsom now, despite him being entered in the Dante. That would seem to indicate to me that he is a doubtful runner at York.
Te Ballydoyle team have said they are keeping an eye on the going for John F Kennedy and, since he was pulled out of the Derrinstown on account of the soft ground, you would be a little concerned on that score. Aloft, has a super-sub look about him, you get the feeling he is covering potential defectors from his team. Ol’ Man River is on a recovery mission and I am surprised they feel the need to run him so soon after his Guineas flop. Maybe they badly need to see if it is worth even sending him to Epsom and it’s a big ask to go Guineas last/Dante first within a twelve day period.
Jack Hobbs got no sort of boost regarding stable strength in depth from Christophermarlowe today. The Lingfield Derby trial hot favourite got a serious shafting at 2/5, looking very ordinary and a tad slow today. I read before the race that one pundit said the horse was Group 3 standard at the very least, but I’ll wait and let the horse prove that after being beaten by two horses rated in the 80’s today. For all that his stable mate couldn’t cement a place as a realistic Derby horse, Jack Hobbs can scarcely have been more impressive. He sauntered home last time, making a mockery of his handicap mark and was value for more still that day. Another team mate runs with him here and Golden Horn was a good winner at a time when one or two of Gosden’s were disappointing. He’s entered in the French Derby but not at Epsom and I get the feeling the latter race, over the shorter trip will be more suitable. It will cost owners £75,000 to get into the Epsom Derby now and that’s a fair old price for a ticket to any gig. I can’t see Golden Horn as an Epsom Derby winner and I am doubting his form in beating Peacock and Disegno last time is as exciting as the handicapper thought in putting the horse up to 111 from 90. Disegno couldn’t quite win at Chester and Peacock has struck me as consistently short of top class. I think Jack Hobbs will prove big time in the Dante that his 109 mark is all wrong in relation to Golden Horn on 111.
Looking back through Elm Park’s form in more detail recently, I have been struck by how few of the horses who have run behind him in his four wins, have come out and won since. There have been zero winners from the Racing Post Trophy, zero from the Royal Lodge, one from his listed Salisbury win and one from his maiden win. In total, 52 runs have yielded 2 wins, 14 placed and 36 unplaced and that’s not exactly a lot to get excited about. In his favour is that he was on an upward curve last season and may have scope to improve. He seems likely to turn up in the Dante and that’s not a given for some of the O’Brien runners.
Weighing it all up I strongly feel the well entered Jack Hobbs is the one to be with and the bet will be for him to win this and the Derby if I can bring myself after a pretty lousy result with Tac Du Boistron, who was my most confident bet of the season so far.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I think you might be on the wrong Gosden horse Steve. Personally I think Golden Horn is the one. If you look at the form Golden Horn has actually beat better horses according to the ratings and I know that doesn’t necessarily mean he is a better horse it means he won a better race.
Jack Hobbs beat trees!! I know he did it impressively and they all enthused about it afterwards but I would have to see him run very well here before I considered betting him for the Derby.
I know it’s all about opinions but mine is that Golden Horn will win this and then be supplemented for the Derby out of the winnings.
Re other horses in the race Nafaqa was beaten a length by Elm Park in the royal lodge and I can’t have the AOB horses at the minute because I don’t know which is going to run!!
Varian has Decorated Knight entered ?? His horses are not right yet!
Elm Park is aquandary to me. He looks like he is fragile and has to have soft ish ground to even run.
So it’s Golden Horn for me and he is probably the value too!!Steve I wouldn’t rule Ol’ Man River out of the Dante, if they run him I think he has an outstanding chance of winning it.
You only have to look at Irish Rookie and how much she came on to almost win the French 1000 Guineas yesterday.
I saw Ol’ Man River in the cooling down paddock after the Guineas walking round with Gleneagles and he looked very sound, can’t understand what the problem was but he was looked after and with the Derby looking so weak at present he can’t be ruled out for a glorious comeback.
Your bucking donkey could soon be doing a high 4..LOL
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I think you might be on the wrong Gosden horse Steve. Personally I think Golden Horn is the one. If you look at the form Golden Horn has actually beat better horses according to the ratings and I know that doesn’t necessarily mean he is a better horse it means he won a better race.
Jack Hobbs beat trees!! I know he did it impressively and they all enthused about it afterwards but I would have to see him run very well here before I considered betting him for the Derby.
I know it’s all about opinions but mine is that Golden Horn will win this and then be supplemented for the Derby out of the winnings.
Re other horses in the race Nafaqa was beaten a length by Elm Park in the royal lodge and I can’t have the AOB horses at the minute because I don’t know which is going to run!!
Varian has Decorated Knight entered ?? His horses are not right yet!
Elm Park is aquandary to me. He looks like he is fragile and has to have soft ish ground to even run.
So it’s Golden Horn for me and he is probably the value too!!Jack Hobbs just hasn’t met the right sort of horses to earn a higher rating yet. My initial feeling was that he was probably short enough for Epsom after winning a handicap but I had a feeling the O’Brien horses were starting to look a bit less promising than initially thought and having watched Jack Hobbs again a few times I thought he was a horse not to underrate at 10/1 for the Derby. He’s half those odds now and I am satisfied that the initial thought that he would contract without doing anything was correct.
It’s not so much the form but the potential and the confidence that have struck me. John Gosden has entered the horse for the Eclipse, so he obviously feels the colt can compete against his elders. The trainer also didn’t hesitate to nominate Jack Hobbs for the Dante, the strongest trial by far, whereas Christophermarlowe went for the soft looking Lingfield trial and couldn’t even win that.
The Fielden is not a race that throws up many Derby winners and, for me anyway, I thought Disegno needed to come out and win that Dee Stakes in style to give the Fielden form a solid look. Runner up, Peacock was not deemed worthy of an entry in the Classics. Golden Horn needs to improve a fair amount in my eyes and his 2 lb superior rating looks spurious to my mind. He’s by Cape Cross and was entered in the 2f shorter French Derby, so I am not sure they think he’ll get the mile and a half.
I get the feeling that Jack Hobbs is a better horse than Western Hymn was coming in off a similar profile last year. He started his career at an odd time and chose an odd route via a handicap. In the circumstances of flopping trial favourites and setbacks, I think he would be shorter still if it were not for the belief that a handicap runner can win a Classic.
All will be revealed on Thursday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve I wouldn’t rule Ol’ Man River out of the Dante, if they run him I think he has an outstanding chance of winning it.
You only have to look at Irish Rookie and how much she came on to almost win the French 1000 Guineas yesterday.
I saw Ol’ Man River in the cooling down paddock after the Guineas walking round with Gleneagles and he looked very sound, can’t understand what the problem was but he was looked after and with the Derby looking so weak at present he can’t be ruled out for a glorious comeback.
Your bucking donkey could soon be doing a high 4..LOL JacI just can’t back a horse who ran so pitifully the time before Jac.
There doesn’t seem to be much confidence that he’s actually going to line up in the Dante and John F Kennedy doesn’t seem to be being backed either.
Geoffrey Chaucer ran a race in the Derby, similar to Ol’ Man River in the Guineas also finishing last. The bad run was put down to him having been hampered and then not given a hard time by the jockey. He was beaten 90 lengths and I don’t buy for one minute that a tanking like that can be explained by being hampered. Aiden was quick to get back on target with Geoffrey Chaucer, stumping up 65,000 Euros to supplement him for the German Derby.
Ryan Moore said before the German Derby that we could disregard Geoffrey Chaucer’s run at Epsom because the horse had been going well enough until being bumped. The horse duly finished second last, as Sea The Moon stormed home, and he was beaten 64 lengths. Whether he was bumped in that race I don’t know but we didn’t get to see him again last year.
First time up this year Geoffrey Chaucer ran in a listed race at the Curragh and was 7th of 8 behind Parish Hall. On that occasion he was beaten 22 lengths and unless he’s a very bump prone horse, there seems to be a pattern developing. He was tried dropped to a mile on heavy ground next time but finished last of the seven runners. For the first time, it seemed like the handicapper finally started to think he needed to drop the horse’s rating, not a bad feat after being beaten 150 plus lengths in just two races.
Geoffrey Chaucer is entered in the Coronation Cup, a full half mile further than his latest start, so it appears they don’t have a clue what to do with him. It is all a long way from accepting that he simply got bumped in the Derby.
Ol’ Man River is by the same sire, Montjeu and I just worry that his profile has taken a lurch towards that of Geoffrey Chaucer. Hope I am wrong but I doubt he’ll win the Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Triptych wrote:</div>
Steve I wouldn’t rule Ol’ Man River out of the Dante, if they run him I think he has an outstanding chance of winning it.
You only have to look at Irish Rookie and how much she came on to almost win the French 1000 Guineas yesterday.
I saw Ol’ Man River in the cooling down paddock after the Guineas walking round with Gleneagles and he looked very sound, can’t understand what the problem was but he was looked after and with the Derby looking so weak at present he can’t be ruled out for a glorious comeback.
Your bucking donkey could soon be doing a high 4..LOL Jac
I just can’t back a horse who ran so pitifully the time before Jac.
There doesn’t seem to be much confidence that he’s actually going to line up in the Dante and John F Kennedy doesn’t seem to be being backed either.
Geoffrey Chaucer ran a race in the Derby, similar to Ol’ Man River in the Guineas also finishing last. The bad run was put down to him having been hampered and then not given a hard time by the jockey. He was beaten 90 lengths and I don’t buy for one minute that a tanking like that can be explained by being hampered. Aiden was quick to get back on target with Geoffrey Chaucer, stumping up 65,000 Euros to supplement him for the German Derby.
Ryan Moore said before the German Derby that we could disregard Geoffrey Chaucer’s run at Epsom because the horse had been going well enough until being bumped. The horse duly finished second last, as Sea The Moon stormed home, and he was beaten 64 lengths. Whether he was bumped in that race I don’t know but we didn’t get to see him again last year.
First time up this year Geoffrey Chaucer ran in a listed race at the Curragh and was 7th of 8 behind Parish Hall. On that occasion he was beaten 22 lengths and unless he’s a very bump prone horse, there seems to be a pattern developing. He was tried dropped to a mile on heavy ground next time but finished last of the seven runners. For the first time, it seemed like the handicapper finally started to think he needed to drop the horse’s rating, not a bad feat after being beaten 150 plus lengths in just two races.
Geoffrey Chaucer is entered in the Coronation Cup, a full half mile further than his latest start, so it appears they don’t have a clue what to do with him. It is all a long way from accepting that he simply got bumped in the Derby.
Ol’ Man River is by the same sire, Montjeu and I just worry that his profile has taken a lurch towards that of Geoffrey Chaucer. Hope I am wrong but I doubt he’ll win the Derby.
That’s why I love horseracing so much Steve, always expect the unexpected.
AOB always holds his cards close to his chest and who knows how many horses he is going to withdraw from the Dante within the next 48 hours. If he takes them all out that leaves an 8 runner field and not exactly a Derby Trial less than 3 weeks before the race and even the top pundits are confused.
On the day Gleneagles won the 2000 Guineas not one tipster tipped him and the Derby is even more confusing.What you’re saying makes a lot of sense Steve and I hope he’s not destined to go down the Geoffrey Chaucer trail, but I wouldn’t say that Ol’ Man River ran a pitiful race he just didn’t run a race at all.
Although there was supposed to be no draw bias at Newmarket with the false running rail it did give a huge advantage to horses drawn on the stands side and OMR had no chance drawn 2.
When Kool Kompany set off at a blistering pace down the centre of the track leading the far side group Joseph O’Brien had to bring OMR across to even be in a position to challenge in the centre of the track, by the time they reached the bushes the stands side had the clear advantage Gleneagles was winning the race and OMR had no chance of even gaining a place, he was eased 2 furlongs from home. So much confidence in him before the race and I believe he was saved. His previous form just doesn’t equate to such a bad run, if you take as a yardstick a horse called Tombelaine who ran 5th to Ol’ Man River in the Gp.2 Juddmonte at the Curragh, he had previously beaten Highland Reel and run 2nd to Gleneagles and JFK.It’s such an open Derby this year I can’t see why Aiden O’Brien wont take his chances with Ol’ Man River in the Dante and the Derby really nothing to lose, but if there is a problem with the horse physically then understandably he will not run. I’ve never known a year with such a low key run up to the big race.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...What you’re saying makes a lot of sense Steve and I hope he’s not destined to go down the Geoffrey Chaucer trail, but I wouldn’t say that Ol’ Man River ran a pitiful race he just didn’t run a race at all.
Although there was supposed to be no draw bias at Newmarket with the false running rail it did give a huge advantage to horses drawn on the stands side and OMR had no chance drawn 2.You say the horse ran no race at all. Are you saying the horse would suddenly have been very competitive from a high draw? I would think that is a little hard to believe.
Ivawood and Celestial Path both ran much better races from low draws but I don’t hear too many people (including connections) suggesting they would have won from a higher draw. I suspect Gleneagles would still have won from a low draw.
As just an occasional ‘glancer through the window’ of each flat season, I get the impression that the Ballydoyle boys have an attitude some would call ‘cavalier’, others ‘relaxed’. Their horses are campaigned in a kind of scattergun fashion and nobody (bar punters) gets upset if something is beaten at long odds on. Nor do they seem surprised if the same beast reappears at some point and collects a huge prize.
Compared with the likes of Nicholls, who hates to lose anything and appears to view a big victory as another dagger in the back of his rivals, it all seems rather quaint and almost amateurish at O’Brien HQ. I’m certain it is far from amateurish, but I think you’ll know what I mean.
If there’s a more accomplished taker of the rough with the smooth than Mr O’Brien, I’d like to meet him.
As just an occasional ‘glancer through the window’ of each flat season, I get the impression that the Ballydoyle boys have an attitude some would call ‘cavalier’, others ‘relaxed’. Their horses are campaigned in a kind of scattergun fashion and nobody (bar punters) gets upset if something is beaten at long odds on. Nor do they seem surprised if the same beast reappears at some point and collects a huge prize.
Compared with the likes of Nicholls, who hates to lose anything and appears to view a big victory as another dagger in the back of his rivals, it all seems rather quaint and almost amateurish at O’Brien HQ. I’m certain it is far from amateurish, but I think you’ll know what I mean.
If there’s a more accomplished taker of the rough with the smooth than Mr O’Brien, I’d like to meet him.
Isn’t that a rather polite way of saying that ‘Ballydoyle’ don’t give two hoots about punters. Of course they are not the only ones, but they are the most high profile.
I suspect it is a little easier to take the rough with the smooth when you have hundreds of boxes full of breeding royalty. If I remember correctly Vincent O’Brien used to get his results with a team 50-60 horses? Presumably, Aidan has about four times that amount.
Stilvi, No, I think it goes way deeper than that. They might well care little for punters, as most trainers/jockeys do, but given the pride they should take in everything they have, and the undoubted professionalism with which they must run their business, I’d have expected it to show in a more competitive outlook.
Perhaps, they’re just acting like the giants they are; almost like a monopoly, with the complacency that brings.
Anyway, I’m wary of hijacking the thread, but I know David (Steve) is an avid O’Brien watcher.
You say the horse ran no race at all. Are you saying the horse would suddenly have been very competitive from a high draw? I would think that is a little hard to believe.
Ivawood and Celestial Path both ran much better races from low draws but I don’t hear too many people (including connections) suggesting they would have won from a higher draw. I suspect Gleneagles would still have won from a low draw.
I don’t think Ol’ Man River would have been competitive from any draw on the day Stilvi I could never understand why the punters came for him and that Gleneagles drifted out to 9/2 at one point. He was the best 2000 Guineas winner since Frankel and I don’t think anything would have beaten him.
Sir Mark Prescott was quoted by the Racing Post on 5th May as having this to say about his runner:-
Prescott said: “Celestial Path ran a fantastic race and if we’d had a better draw he could have nicked a place”.It was just my own personal feeling on seeing Ol’Man River after the race walking round with Gleneagles in the cooling off paddock that he had had a genuine off day for one reason or another. I don’t know if any reason was given by Ballydoyle for his bad run I searched for one after the race but couldn’t find anything.
As an example of how Ballydoyle can turn a horse around after a bad run you just have to go back to the 2012 Guineas won by Camelot where Power came in 17th of 18 runners after being eased at the 1 furlong mark, he then came back 3 weeks later as the winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas.
Ol’ Man River deserves to take his chance in the Dante on Thursday and prove that he could be a worthy Derby contender.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Talking about AOB and the scattergun approach I am inclined to agree with the added opinion that they are not experts at placing their horses probably because they don’t have to be !!
They have hundreds of very well bred animals and they don’t seem to know exactly what they are doing with them. I know the game is about opinions but mine is that they are not precise enough with the placing of their horses and hence they win with the “wrong” one sometimes or more than sometimes.
I wish some of my favourite trainers had the fire power AOB has and then you would see how good or bad the Coolmore horses really are.By the way I still think Golden Horn will win the Dante!!
Punters need to remember ballydoyle is a fairly unique breeding operation whose almost sole purpose is to produce stallions. As for the Dante I think ol man river has a very good chance of winning if ge runs up to his 2yo form. You can never tell if horses will train on but if he has then he has too much natural speed not to be at least competitive in what is a Dante minus a true champion. I can see ol Man river making the running,Joseph slowing it up and trying to skip the field. I hope we get a top horse out of the race but don’t be surprised if it is not one of the ballydoyle duo.
The winners and runners-up from 24th April at Sandown (the day Jack Hobbs won) raced so, according to RP comments;
tracked leading trio – tracked leader
tracked leader – led
pressed leader – held up in last (Here Comes When)
made all – held up in last (Cape Clear Island or whatever that AOB 3yo is called)
tracked leaders – held up (Zeb Un Nisa)
made all – close up
tracked leader – ledSo 11/14 led or raced close up. Chuck in Charlie Hills b!tch!ng about the ground and all in all IMO you get a bunch of results which must be taken with a pinch of salt.
Fwiw, Zeb Un Nisa is a Roger Charlton 3yo entered in a 5f 3yo Listed sprint at York on Thursday. She’s rated 90 & racing against several 10x rated horses, and also has Atzeni booked for the ride (Atzeni & Charlton 2/2 pairing up), so she seems to be very good and I’d expect her to put in a good performance. Watch the race again, she really did get extremely unlucky & it’s very difficult to come off the pace at Sandown, let alone on the ground that day.
Interesting quote from O’Brien regarding Ol Man River today:
“Ol’ Man River disappointed in the Guineas, but maybe he wasn’t ready mentally and it was probably the wrong thing to run him.
“A mile and a quarter on nice ground – we’ll learn a lot more about him. Joseph (O’Brien) knew it was his first run of the season and wasn’t going to give him a hard time. Hopefully he’ll run well.”
Might see a different horse tomorrow, but I’m still not convinced he will bounce back.
That said, I am willing to give JFK another chance, the ground and the race in the Ballysax didn’t play to his strengths so I feel he can redeem himself in more suitable conditions in the Dante – Bertie Le Belge paid a compliment to the John Deere form yesterday so I’m hoping for a good run.
Always expect the unexpected.
Whether it’s another of the hack jobs for Jack Hobbs or JFK saying Ich Bin Ein Der Winner, I’ve backed Elm Park through the Hill’s app (free bet if 2nd).
BTW, whatever Jack Hobbs does tomorrow, it’s a brave man who takes short odds about such a big long striding horse handling Epsom.
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