- This topic has 79 replies, 32 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Thoughts?
If Casual Conquest doesn’t go for Epsom then I really do think the Derby winner will come, as it has for three of the last four years, from here despite the depleted fieldWhile he’ll get this trip no problem, Twice Over looks more of a lay than a back at his current price in my eyes. I’m probably one of many who doesn’t think he’ll stay the extra two at Epsom and this looks a hell of a lot tougher than the Craven.
Godolphin have had some good horses beaten in this over the years, though I have to say McCartney looks my idea of the winner, for all the Dewhurst has amazingly yet to throw up a winner. Young Pretender looks first string on jockey bookings but I think he might be better over shorter.
Tartan Bearer needs to improve big time to feature but could be anything.Twice Over will be difficult to beat, I’d have made him favourite for the Guineas. Hope McCartney runs well though, got some fancy prices about him. Nice type who improved when racing on a firm surface last term before running poorly on a soft surface in the Dewhurst.
Strange being by In The Wings and with a bit of a rounded action, he should be better on a firm surface.
The jockey booking is a worry. I’d be happy with a close (ish) second despite the record of beaten Dante horses in the Derby.Ginge
Value Is EverythingCecil has doubts about the ground being safe for Twice Over.
If he doesn’t run, the Derby picture remains clear as mud. Unless connections of Casual Conquest or Famous Name change their minds….
Was very impressed with Centenial when i saw him at Sandown and he battled on with the runner up being down the pack in the Chester Vase last week but in a previous post i said the Classic trial runner up looked more a Leger than Derby horse anyway. Forgot the Sandown runner ups name but hopefully someone will remind me
Twice Over could be a good thing in the making but you dont know what is being kept back in Ballydoyle.
Cheers MP, i do think Feared in Flight is Leger horse tho and looks like he will be suited with a test of stamina.
Frozen Fire is unexposed and will be suited by the step up in trip plus you cannot rule out the two Godolphin horses.
It is a race worth watching rather than lumping on and should be good to see how it pans out
I expect Twice Over to hack up. Ten furlongs will suit more than the mile of the Craven. Henry has ground concerns – don’t they always?
York can be a funny track but you can ride this horse any way, that also has to be a plus, he’s uncomplicated and professional.
Gosden has a handle on the form with Twice Over through Raven’s Pass.
It’s clear from the number of times this phrase and others like it are repeated that many punters use this method as an aid to assessing a race. I’ve never used it and it seems highly unlikely to me that home gallops are an exact enough science to enable a trainer to say with any certainty at all that because horse A from his stable put up a particular performance against a horse from another then horse B from his stable is likely to finish five lengths in front of or behind that horse, as the case may be.
In this case, Raven’s Pass was just pipped by Twice Over at a mile. I just don’t see how that will assist Gosden in deciding whether Centennial will beat the same horse over 10f tomorrow.
Each to their own, however. There’s more than one way of skinning a cat.
Six Declared:
Centennial
Frozen Fire
McCartney
Tartan Bearer
Twice Over
Young PretenderThat doesn’t look like it will take much winning IMO. Looking at form to date I’ll be disappointed if this turns out to be the definitive Derby trial again this year.
I really fancy Centennial for this race. It’s quite interesting that he’s following the same route to Epsom as Benny The Dip, who won the race in ’97.
He wasn’t 100% when he won at Sandown and he’s sure to improve. Twice Over should run a big race. He could still be anything and will improve for the step-up in trip.
A lot has been said about McCartney. I could really fancy this horse for a Derby, but Godolphins ‘big-guns’ aren’t firing thus far and he’s best watched at present.
Centennial to beat Twice Over.
With Twice Over a possible non-runner, McCartney unlikely to handle the ground (he will go on it, but would look to prefer some ease), Tartan Bearer having beaten nothing in his Leciester maiden and Centennial’s Sandown run not looking all that great, Frozen Fire has a massive chance.
He’s bred to be decent over this sort of trip and whilst his last run behind Ibn Khaldun doesn’t appear promising, horses who were similarly well beaten include Curtain Call, Tajaweed, River Proud and King of Rome.
The forecast 12/1 will do me nicely (though the 17.0 I’ve just taken on betfair will do me even more nicely).
Dear God. How would McCartney prefer some ease? His best performance was on good to firm (by quite some way), and it’s possible the ground in the dewhurst was partly to blame for his showing.
Beats me Salse. I thought McCartney would thrive on the firm track!
Still lost on a choice of winner here with the thought of Twice Over’s absence in mind. McCartney looks ideal. I haven’t enough convincing that Frozen Fire is worth the time.
Frozen Fire has a touch of the Wassily Kandinskys about him for me. By Montjeu, and raced lazily as a 2yo. It’s easy to put that doubt to greeness but It’d have to have reservations about his temperament. I’m hoping for a Twice Over romp. Whatever he does today is unlikely to tell us anything with regards to whether he’ll stay at Epsom and after an impressive win, his odds are only going to contract.
I couldn’t find a bet in the race today
An impossible betting race. Twice Over should win but given the ground concerns and its only a trial I’d want 6/4. I have Cenntennial, McCartney and Young Pretender much of a muchness form wise (slightly favouring McC) and difficult to select for the place, Tartan Bearer has drifted out to the region of a correct price and the Frozen Fire has it all to proove.
Watching brief on this one.
No placed horse in the Dante has ever gone on to win The Derby.
As I think Twice Over is a serious Derby contender, I will have to stick with him. Keep him handy, Ted. Kick for home two out and they won’t catch you.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.