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Whilst racing at Salisbury on Tuesday (Aug 24th), I watched two previous winners score for the second time in novice races for juveniles. I’m sure connections are delighted with their performance. I’m equally sure that the handicapper will punish them for their temerity in starting their careers so successfully, so that neither will enjoy much further success unless they prove good enough to compete in Listed/Group company.
I wasn’t expecting either horse to win on Tuesday, as carrying a penalty against opponents that had shown promise on debut and against several expensive and well bred newcomers, looked a difficult task. In the event, there were a lot of disappointments in both races and experience combined with a reasonable level of ability was sufficient to win them.
First up was Hierarchy, who’d won a Wolverhampton class 5 novice stakes in a three way photo, form that was boosted to a degree by the third scoring at Bath and getting an official handicap rating of 80. Hierarchy isn’t the biggest, the type that bloodstock experts might describe as lacking scope, meaning not much potential for improvement. But he proved tough and good enough to give 7lbs to the Clive Cox trained favourite, who’d shown considerable promise at Newbury on debut, but still looked green going to post here. Leuven Power, an expensive yearling purchase for King Power, impressed in the preliminaries, but blew the start and lost all chance.
Hierarchy has been given a rating of 88 by the Racing Post for this win, a 9 point improvement on his debut success. I expect that the official handicapper will come up with much the same number, 85 or above. Can Hierarchy expect to win off that mark – in my view it will be very difficult to place him and if he does win a nursery, life will be even harder for him as a 3-y-old. But his trainer really has no other choice, as a Listed race looks beyond him and carrying a double penalty in a novice stakes would be a) tough to win and b) risk a further handicap rise.
Next up was a fillies novice stakes, won by Minnamoolka, who’d previously scored in a restricted maiden at Bath, a win that earned her a 4lb penalty here. I’ve seen a lot of 2-year-old races at Salisbury over the years, and few would have been contested by a field as poor as this one. Minnamoolka made all and had no trouble holding off an Ed Dunlop trained filly, Commandment, that had shown some promise on debut, but looked edgy and out of sorts going to post. Much further back were a small, unprepossessing filly that had cost King Power 350,000 gns and a better looking but backward filly trained by Hugh Morrison. In summary, not a race that took much winning.
Minnamoolka has been rated 82 by the Post, the same as she got for Bath, and the problem for her trainer, Mick Channon, is the same – where next. I’d expect an official mark of around 80, but I doubt if she’s really that good. Channon mentioned the Group 3 Dick Poole Stakes back at Salisbury in his post race interview, and he has entered her for that. Good luck Mick, but I reckon Southampton will win the Premier League before this filly wins a Group 3 race.
So what’s the solution? Well in our handicap dominated program there isn’t one. Hierarchy and Minnamoolka will inevitably find themselves up against rivals that haven’t been winning and have more lenient handicaps marks. And this curse extends to almost any horse that starts out well, but simply isn’t good enough for the big leagues. They can spend a year or more, run eight or ten races in defeat, before they get down to a realistic handicap mark – and by then they’ve quite often lost the ability to win at all.
In France, they would be able to move into a program of (more or less) level weight races that provide a ladder from maidens to Listed contests. For example, their wins would be classified as class D or E in France, so a class C race would be open to them, in which the conditions would limit entry to horses that had not won a class C or above for six months or a year. The only penalty for their wins would relate to the prize money, usually something like 1kg for every 5,000 euros.
In the US, they’d move from maidens to allowance races, firstly non winners of one (maiden and claiming wins excluded), then non winners of two and so on, before moving into Stakes races. The noticeable difference in those countries is that the trainer can make decisions on the placing of his horses based on what he knows about their ability, even when they win on debut. Here, too many are cursed by a harsh handicap mark, but left with no other options.
For the sake of the connections, I hope I’ve misjudged Hierarchy and Minnamoolka. If I owned either of them myself, they’d be going to the next available sale! I’ll continue to monitor their careers and report back, firstly when the official handicapper has his say next Tuesday.
Seems crazy doesn’t it? Like so many other things in this country at the moment. Nice post Mr. Potts.
Not so sure the figures would agree with you here, Alan.
Looking at 2yo’s that ran Timeform Ratings in the high seventies (TFR 79+) on second career run, then went into a Nursery next time out, their record is quite good actually…
Since 2015 its
43-142–30.28%–A/E 1.31
2020 alone was higher still at win rate circa 33%
Both Godolphin trainers, Fahey, and Beckett, all seem quite adept at it.
Think “The Curse of British Horseracing” would be more appropriate.
The system is at fault not the handicappers, not to mention the pathetic prize money and there being far too much racing. Nothings ever done though by the inept BHA.While agreeing with AP that I would be sending them to the sales if owning them (how much did the 2 horses mentioned cost in the first place? as that would be a factor), shouldn’t we really be asking ourselves why we would be buying the horses in the first place? Is there much point if we are sending them to the sales in the unlikely event they are relatively successful as opposed to the much more likely scenario that we are keeping them and losing money hand over fist?
An interesting and thought-provoking post Apracing.
Owning a racehorse is both a leisure pursuit and a gamble though. Is it realistic to expect this to prove profitable to the majority of owners?
In order to have a winner there need to be far more losers. Owning a horse that has won twice in a season seems like a great outcome to me.
I’d be interested to see some international comparisons of racehorse owners’ returns on investment.
I’m certainly not suggesting that horses like the ones I’ve mentioned should be expected to show a profit. The woners of Hierarchy and Minnamoolka have so far picked up less than £8,000 as their share of the first place prize money.
As to their original purchase prices, Hierarchy was bought for 105,000 gns at a Newmarket breeze up sale in April, Minnamoolka has never been through a public auction and may well be running on a lease whilst still owned by her breeder. Looking at the fee for her sire and the cost of previous foals from the dam, I reckon she’d have cost around £25k if sold as a yearling.
Both horses are now entered for Group 3 racs this week, Minnamoolka at Salisbury on Thursday, Hierarchy in the Sirenia Stakes at Kempton on Saturday. And this is the issue I was attempting to highlight, the fact that they are pushed from class 4 wins straight into class 1 contests, with no available races in between. Where are the class 2/3 races for juveniles?
Ascot stage a rich one day meeting on Saturday and that card incudes a pair of 2-y-old novice races, but they’re just another class 4 with a 6lb penalty for each race won and £10k total prize money. They are followed by five class 2/3 handicaps for older horses, worth up to £75k.
Handicap marks published this morning – Hierarchy is on 88, Minnamoolka on 81.
Cav,
Do those figures relate specifically to juveniles that had won two races before obtaining a handicap mark?
Hi Alan,
Those figures would relate to all 2yos which ran to and above the TFR mentioned. Take your general point regarding the options available to such horses though. Haven’t the time or inclination right now to go through them individually, but I see Beckett’s New Mandate, who won a nursery at Sandown on race three last August off 81, went on to win the Royal Lodge a month later.
Owners go into ownership with their eyes open, or should do.
Owning racehorses is a luxury leisure activity, not a business opportunity.
Your horse wins a maiden and novice it’s already been more successful than most horses.
If it’s good enough to then be a pattern horse you have been more fortunate still.
If not, it faces life in handicaps, where lesser horses and their connections get their chance, often a disproportionate one as the more moderate horses often aren’t too busy while obtaining a mark.
Oh, and UK prize money isn’t great.
That’s the transparent proposition on the table for every potential owner.
I cannot think of another luxury leisure activity where consumers of the product (ownership) whinge quite so much about what they bought into after the event.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Interesting thread.
Seeing horses run in Group races having performed in a Class 4 the race before, I thought this was because those horses were considered good enough to mix with the best and not because there weren’t enough races in between.At Salisbury on Thursday Minnamoolka was 4-19 lb “wrong” with every other horse in the race with a handicap mark, so no surprise she started at long odds and finished well down the field. Even allowing for that, there was nothing in the run to suggest she will be more than a handicapper. Entered in a nursery on Monday, 81 is far from an impossible winning mark – about 13% of nursery winners won off that mark or higher over the last eight years or so.
Hierarchy looks a different kettle of fish. Presumably one doesn’t pay over 100,000 guineas thinking one is simply buying a handicapper, and connections will know more after tomorrow. If he can win, or go close, given the handicap marks of others in the field ….
With both horses, connections should soon have a much clearer picture of their horses’ potential and thus be able to make appropriate decisions.
The Class 2 Nursery, essentially a 0-85 at Goodwood this afternoon, has attracted 5 runners.
You’d wonder why they bother at times.
Small fields have continued to proliferate in recent years. To use one of Oaksey’s favourite sayngs “A blindman in a coalmine can see why” but a totally inept BHA continue to do sweet FA.
It’s not rocket science, there isn’t the horse population for the fixture list. It should be reduced to about 1000 fixtures.The prize money is out there – you just have to run your horse more often to accumulate it.
Yes, a lot of it is Class 5 and 6 Handicap fayre, but there’s no shortage of higher-grade races going unsupported.
It’s not Hong Kong, but there’s some easy pickings due to the saturation-coverage fixture list.
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