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I have just finished reading Dave Nevison’s “A Bloody Good Winner”. In it he speaks of Eddie Fremantle teaching him how to compile his own tissue based on reading of the form, and as I understand it, where a horse in your tissue is available to back at longer odds, therein lies the “value”.
Its taken years for that to be explained to me in an easy to understand way.
I guess what this means is that a 33/1 shot could be poor value and a 5/4 shot (Denman in the Sun Alliance an example given in the book) good value. Although he does make it clear that backing “shorties” over time is a mugs game.
I have to confess I am a mug, as I have tended over the years to try and selectively back “shorties” but even though I have managed a strike rate near 40% I am well down. He does say SR is important for backing shorties (and not for long shots as you obviously only need a couple of 40/1 winners to clear the deficit) although I guess to truly make a profit on them you would need a 50-60%%+ SR at least, which is virtually impossible to achieve over anything longer than a “luck” 4 months or so period.
So, my question to the forum is can anyone help me with “how to compile a tissue” as I want to have a crack at improving my betting along the lines of the Nevison/Freemantle model. I presume it will have to be based upon <i>my </i>reading of the form, and for the timebeing I am happy to rely on RPRs as a guide (though Nevison uses some guy called John Whitley and Raceform Interactive).
Finally another thing I didn’t quite understand the logic behind was on some occasions he spoke of backing a couple of horses to beat the fav rather than simply laying the fav. I couldn’t see the logic – surely if you think the fav is beatable by at least two of his rivals, surely the best policy is to simply lay the fav rather than trying to guess which of the rest of t5he runners will actually win?
Thanks in advance.
Read this…..
https://theracingforum.co.uk/forum/v … sc&start=0
Pages 1 and 3 have good advice on the subject from Gingertipster.
Ginger in the name of Sweet Divine Jesus please don’t turn this into another 10 pages of percentages.
This is the holy gambler’s grail
people may point you roughly
but you’ll need a yellowed
parchment map, mainly drawn
from the mind
to find treasure island and some
will tell ya
the trinklets amount to fools goldA sorcerer of old Robvaluenorth
believes in navel gazing
and watching the great north star
settle in the guts of the firmamentThe old farmer knows he has value
when he removes his teeth
to spot the number 5 on a different shelfThe thing is
if everyone worked out tissue the same way
there would be no value
if value is something you believe in
- Total Posts 17716
Please remove this thread before Mark arrives!
Thanks, I will look at the said thread. Gamble, I can see what you say in terms of value is presumably very subjective, however I would have hoped there are some broad rules I can apply to creating a tissue. I must confess I am a novice in this respect so you will have to bear with me. I am guessing that you have an "odds slide rule" which presumably reverts to given point each time you approach a horses’s form and then you slide out or in according to the positive and negatives gleaned from the form.
There is one problem with being a slave to the value theory, and that is a "horse on the drift"
You belive a horse is value at say 2/1. It opens at 7/4 and then drifts out to say 11/4. Is there "value" at 11/4, probably yes. It continues to drift to 7/2. Is there "value" at 7/2, probably no.
having said that you do get stand out prices from time to time, that just can’t be ignored.
There is one problem with being a slave to the value theory
It’s not really a theory, more an undeniable truth. The aim is clearly to find prices which are longer than they should be and back them, or shorter than they should be and lay them. Anything else is just gambling (in the roulette sense of the word).
There is one problem with being a slave to the value theory, and that is a "horse on the drift"
You belive a horse is value at say 2/1. It opens at 7/4 and then drifts out to say 11/4. Is there "value" at 11/4, probably yes. It continues to drift to 7/2. Is there "value" at 7/2, probably no.
having said that you do get stand out prices from time to time, that just can’t be ignored.
Yes, I think Nevison mentioned this too, and he has been doen himself on occasions, although I think he cites occasions where the drifter has won and he has bottled it as well as losing on other occasions.
Nobody really knows who or what
is moving the market
bar the bair.Framing tissue
is the real slog and bore
of racing
and you feel you are back in
the third row
of the remove
doing detention.
I would willingly join
Robvaluenorth
swinging on a star
if I could find
a way around itI wish you luck
february and hope
your enthusiasm
lasts the course.It still boils down to being able to assess a race properly. If you always assess a race wrongly then where you think the value lies is going to be incorrect. This, I would suggest, is not a betting tactic to employ unless you really know the formbook and the game inside out!
The whole business of a tissue baffles me to be honest, if it was such a great tool why didn’t Phil Bull think of it first.
If this concept was born with Eddie the Shoe and it works why does he have to turn up on Racing UK for not very much, post for WBX for probably not very much and write for the Guardian. Bit sceptical about these personality pro punters who always seem to have many different revenue streams, sometimes including tipping lines.
Framing tissue
is the real slog and bore
of racingSorry to disappoint
but truth to tell
it takes no more
than 10 minutes of my time
each tissue to frameEven at your ten minutes
mutiply that by 18
and that still amounts
to three hours
of deprived sunlight
with headscratching.Jumps only Class 1 and 2 races, any 0-130+ handicaps outside those and Northern steeplechases.
No All-Weather, I just can’t find an edge on the sand.
Smaller field non-handicaps I leave as unlikely to give an advantage.
Seldom more than 12 races even on a Saturday, and half the week no more than 1 or 2 races.
- Total Posts 17716
February
I think your own thread title says it all;
Concept because that’s what it is, and as such can only have guidelines set by the individual doing the conception, and "value" in quotation marks to separate the assumed from the reality.
Nothing personal, you understand, but I trust you won’t regret starting this thread, as I’m sure many of us are about to.
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