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Boylesports offering 9/2 for HF to win Irish and English champion hurdles, seen as today is as close to a cert as you can get think it’s worth a dabble as he’ll probably shorten a tad after today so will be nice to be sitting on 9/2 for the horse who imo they have tp beat come the big day.
Boylesports offering 9/2 for HF to win Irish and English champion hurdles, seen as today is as close to a cert as you can get think it’s worth a dabble as he’ll probably shorten a tad after today so will be nice to be sitting on 9/2 for the horse who imo they have tp beat come the big day.
I wouldn’t be too sure about The Fly winning todays race being a certainty, to my mind there wasn’t a lot to choose between him and Binocular last year. There’s an argument HF wasn’t right last year but I dont see he’s done very much this year to suggest he’s any different. Go Native was cantering all over him a couple of runs back before he fell and if he hadn’t of fallen, HF would probably be bigger than 9/2 anyway. LTO he was visually impressive although I doubt Unacompanied, Captain Cee Bee or Thousand Stars would be even considered for the Champion Hurdle this time round.
Even 2 years ago when everything went right for HF in the run up to Cheltenham, he started the race 11/4 in what seemed to be his peak.
Trying to be realistic, it will be a very tough assignment for either Hurricance Fly or Binocular to regain the crown come march but the prices are so far apart at the moment that if you’re really thinking of backing HF, an e/w on Binny seems sensible. Vibes coming from Hendersons yard regarding Binocular have been very good.
Also probably worth noting Binocular has a very decent record 2nd time out which should come in the champion itself.Boylesports offering 9/2 for HF to win Irish and English champion hurdles, seen as today is as close to a cert as you can get think it’s worth a dabble as he’ll probably shorten a tad after today so will be nice to be sitting on 9/2 for the horse who imo they have tp beat come the big day.
Fair offer, they went 5s on Friday.
Boylesports offering 9/2 for HF to win Irish and English champion hurdles, seen as today is as close to a cert as you can get think it’s worth a dabble as he’ll probably shorten a tad after today so will be nice to be sitting on 9/2 for the horse who imo they have tp beat come the big day.
I wouldn’t be too sure about The Fly winning todays race being a certainty, to my mind there wasn’t a lot to choose between him and Binocular last year. There’s an argument HF wasn’t right last year but I dont see he’s done very much this year to suggest he’s any different. Go Native was cantering all over him a couple of runs back before he fell and if he hadn’t of fallen, HF would probably be bigger than 9/2 anyway. LTO he was visually impressive although I doubt Unacompanied, Captain Cee Bee or Thousand Stars would be even considered for the Champion Hurdle this time round.
Even 2 years ago when everything went right for HF in the run up to Cheltenham, he started the race 11/4 in what seemed to be his peak.
Trying to be realistic, it will be a very tough assignment for either Hurricance Fly or Binocular to regain the crown come march but the prices are so far apart at the moment that if you’re really thinking of backing HF, an e/w on Binny seems sensible. Vibes coming from Hendersons yard regarding Binocular have been very good.
Also probably worth noting Binocular has a very decent record 2nd time out which should come in the champion itself.Take your points Andrew but disagree pretty much entirely, HF has won his last 10 starts in Ireland all grade ones, Willie was clearly never happy with him last season and he looks back to his best this season and will have had an ideal 3 race prep. Thousand Stars and CCB have never beaten him & HF slammed Binocular at Punchestown in 2011 plus Binny is always vunerable fto, beaten the last 2 seasons, so will surely need the run today after 167 days off.
To say Go Native was cantering all over HF is a bit of an exageration, it would have been fascinating to see who’d have won had GN stood up but GN was a high class animal and it’s one of the saddest aspects of this season that he is no longer with us.
So for me HF only has to get round to win today, whether 9/2 is a value bet for the Festival is more open to debate but like I said he’ll have had the ideal prep unlike many others and is the class act, still finished 3rd last season while not at his best, I think he’ll go off around 3/1 on the day. Grandouet may well be the biggest danger imo and will probably save on him on the day.
I suppose it comes down to how strong you think the races HF has contested in Ireland are. Personally I would like to have seen him travel over to England more but there we go. He might well win easily today as, like I’ve said, Binoculars record 2nd time out has been more impressive than when making his seasonal debut. That’s not to say he won’t run well today, he has run well first time out in the past. Purely looking at the last 3 Champion Hurdles, I dont see where the massive gulf in prices comes from.
I suppose it comes down to how strong you think the races HF has contested in Ireland are. Personally I would like to have seen him travel over to England more but there we go. He might well win easily today as, like I’ve said, Binoculars record 2nd time out has been more impressive than when making his seasonal debut. That’s not to say he won’t run well today, he has run well first time out in the past. Purely looking at the last 3 Champion Hurdles, I dont see where the massive gulf in prices comes from.
Never underestimate the Irish form, look how many races the Irish won at the 2011 Festival. Couldn’t have won any easier today, 9/4 with WHills now.
Good performance from Hurricane Fly there. Dont see how you think I underestimate all Irish form tho when I’m quite obviously just talking about the races HF has contested?? Anyone can see the Irish 2m hurdle races (grade1) are nowhere near as strong as the ones run in the UK.
Strange run from Binocular, more of a training excersise to my eye. When HF went to pick up the front 2, McCoy didnt even attempt to go with him. Thought Binocular would need the run and that result was always on the cards but wouldn’t want to back HF on the back of that, 9/4’s almost as much of a joke as 4/6 was last year.I backed two shorties at last year’s Festival – Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe. They reduced what would have been an exceptional betting week to a good one. Of course both are subsequently unbeaten their fortunes contrasting markedly with the winners. For me they went down so tamely that another year on I couldn’t contemplate backing either again.
You have to question how much substance there really is in Hurricane Fly’s string of victories. Outside the two Champion Hurdles he has consistently been beating up small fields of pretty much the same horses. The Champion Hurdle win was lauded at the time but was it such a great performance to beat Peddlers Cross? If you are with him again you are pinning your hopes on a considerable deterioration in the runner up and a belief that all was not right with the favourite last year. On the other hand could Rock On Ruby have just taken him out of his comfort zone and on ground quicker than he now appreciates he just waved a white flag?
If the ground does dry up – admitedly a big if – the value probably still lies with Cotton Mill.
I backed two shorties at last year’s Festival – Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe. They reduced what would have been an exceptional betting week to a good one. Of course both are subsequently unbeaten their fortunes contrasting markedly with the winners. For me they went down so tamely that another year on I couldn’t contemplate backing either again.
You have to question how much substance there really is in Hurricane Fly’s string of victories. Outside the two Champion Hurdles he has consistently been beating up small fields of pretty much the same horses. The Champion Hurdle win was lauded at the time but was it such a great performance to beat Peddlers Cross? If you are with him again you are pinning your hopes on a considerable deterioration in the runner up and a belief that all was not right with the favourite last year. On the other hand could Rock On Ruby have just taken him out of his comfort zone and on ground quicker than he now appreciates he just waved a white flag?
If the ground does dry up – admitedly a big if – the value probably still lies with Cotton Mill.
Stilvi, the Fly has had the perfect preparation, Willie says they will have him more prominent as he oversettled last year. Nothing could have been more impressive than him. He’ll take it up just after two out and IMV he’ll win by 3-4 lengths. The rest have untold question marks against them so far due to interrupted preparations.
You give strong views as to why HF won’t win – so what will?
I don’t think anyone could contemplate backing Sizing Europe if he goes for the QMCC, but he’s certainly not gone backwards.I backed two shorties at last year’s Festival – Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe. They reduced what would have been an exceptional betting week to a good one. Of course both are subsequently unbeaten their fortunes contrasting markedly with the winners. For me they went down so tamely that another year on I couldn’t contemplate backing either again.
You have to question how much substance there really is in Hurricane Fly’s string of victories. Outside the two Champion Hurdles he has consistently been beating up small fields of pretty much the same horses. The Champion Hurdle win was lauded at the time but was it such a great performance to beat Peddlers Cross? If you are with him again you are pinning your hopes on a considerable deterioration in the runner up and a belief that all was not right with the favourite last year. On the other hand could Rock On Ruby have just taken him out of his comfort zone and on ground quicker than he now appreciates he just waved a white flag?
If the ground does dry up – admitedly a big if – the value probably still lies with Cotton Mill.
Stilvi, the Fly has had the perfect preparation, Willie says they will have him more prominent as he oversettled last year. Nothing could have been more impressive than him. He’ll take it up just after two out and IMV he’ll win by 3-4 lengths. The rest have untold question marks against them so far due to interrupted preparations.
You give strong views as to why HF won’t win – so what will?
I don’t think anyone could contemplate backing Sizing Europe if he goes for the QMCC, but he’s certainly not gone backwards.It’s not a race I would have any great confidence about but my suggestion would be to wait for NRNB and take the 25/1 Cotton Mill in the hope the ground dries up. I would prefer the question marks at that price rather than the question marks about Hurricane Fly at 3/1.
Good performance from Hurricane Fly there. Dont see how you think I underestimate all Irish form tho when I’m quite obviously just talking about the races HF has contested?? Anyone can see the Irish 2m hurdle races (grade1) are nowhere near as strong as the ones run in the UK.
Strange run from Binocular, more of a training excersise to my eye. When HF went to pick up the front 2, McCoy didnt even attempt to go with him. Thought Binocular would need the run and that result was always on the cards but wouldn’t want to back HF on the back of that, 9/4’s almost as much of a joke as 4/6 was last year.HF has now beaten Binocular out of site twice and was still ahead of him even when under a cloud last year. For me Thousand Stars is a pretty reliable yardstick, HF pretty much beats him as he likes whereas his form measures up pretty well against other contenders, two neck defeats to Oscar Whisky at Aintree included with Rock on Ruby 5 lengths behind last year among lots of pieces of good form against the leading British hurdelers. Unaccompanied split Grandouet and Zarkandar in 2011 Triumph but is treated with utter contempt by The Fly whenever they meet.
For me to say HF is beating not a great deal is nonsense. Though your right 9/4 is way too short, 9/2 though?
I thought he raced with a bit more zest yesterday and maybe he is "back to his best". But i still don’t buy the fitness reasons given for what was to me, a bit of an underwhelming comeback race. I just think he’s a fragile in and out performer and not sure much is going to change that
Hes more on his game than not of course but i couldn’t back at given odds
I thought he raced with a bit more zest yesterday and maybe he is "back to his best". But i still don’t buy the fitness reasons given for what was to me, a bit of an underwhelming comeback race. I just think he’s a fragile in and out performer and not sure much is going to change that
Hes more on his game than not of course but i couldn’t back at given odds
Can you find a lesser ‘in and out performer’ than one who has 14 wins from 16 starts and 2 third places to his name?
Yeah. Hands up./ Should have checked the record
But lets stick to a bit fragile. I’ve never really bought into the reasons given for last years defeat though
My thoughts are with Darlan here. a lot was made of way race was run at xmas but it probably wasnt ideal from him either (connections thought so) and hes going right way
Hi all,
My first post on the forum, so here goes!
I really can’t have Darlan on my mind in this. Ok, he won well at Kempton but no one wanted to make the running and it turned out to be a sprint.
The form of last year’s Supreme is questionable to say the least.
Cinders and Ashes may not have had it’s ground but has been comprehensively been beat on his two subsequent starts. Trifolium’s been beaten on his three subsequent starts, the last two being absolute spankings. Zarkandar gave 5th place Prospect Wells 17lbs and a beating. I don’t think the race has thrown up many winners and would have the would have the Fly, Grandouet, Zarkandar and Rock on Ruby ahead of him.
That said he has got plenty of scope for improvement but wouldn’t back him with counterfeit on the strength of his Kempton run,
Cue egg on my face, come March 12th.
Hi all,
My first post on the forum, so here goes!
I really can’t have Darlan on my mind in this. Ok, he won well at Kempton but no one wanted to make the running and it turned out to be a sprint.
The form of last year’s Supreme is questionable to say the least.
Cinders and Ashes may not have had it’s ground but has been comprehensively been beat on his two subsequent starts. Trifolium’s been beaten on his three subsequent starts, the last two being absolute spankings. Zarkandar gave 5th place Prospect Wells 17lbs and a beating. I don’t think the race has thrown up many winners and would have the would have the Fly, Grandouet, Zarkandar and Rock on Ruby ahead of him.
That said he has got plenty of scope for improvement but wouldn’t back him with counterfeit on the strength of his Kempton run,
Cue egg on my face, come March 12th.
Welcome Couteau, good first post. Agree last years Supreme doesn’t seem to have the strength of the epic 2011 renewal certainly, for me Darlan needed to be good enough to have won last years Supreme to have much hope in this years Champion.
He’s fairly easily passed over for me, his best performances have been away from Cheltenham.
Have to agree, I couldn’t have Darlan either. The form from last years supreme and triumph hurdles looks all over the place, although to be fair the ground has been terrible for quite a long time now to really know. I’m sure Cinders and Ashes will show better form at the festival on better ground for example. To be vying for favouritism on the back of his recent win seems a little false given, as Couteau says, the race turned into a bit of a sprint. Dont like backing favourites at the festival anyway, when I back a favourite I fully expect them to oblige and they rarely do.
And yes Pants, good skills on spotting the 9/2 on the Fly, just hope you backed it e/w!
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