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Well I don’t think I will have a bet in this race after my 1t choice poor Darlan died and Cotton Mill now a NR, I would really love for Binocular to win this, might have a few quid on him on the off or multiple but the whole Darlan/Binocular team deserve it, get the impression Henderson would rather have Binouclar win.
After fancying Grandouet ever since the International, I have reluctantly jumped ship. His preparation has been awful and the vibes seem to get worse every day. The ground is also not ideal.
This left me torn between Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar. I hate two things in racing:
1.
Backing short-priced favourites in competitive races
2.
Making the same mistake twice (
backed HF last year
)
But…I am going to break my own rules. Somebody on this thread made the excellent point: "imagine how far Hurricane Fly would have won Zarkandar’s races by". I totally agree. The form book shows quite clearly that he was not himself in this race last year for whatever reason. If he is at his best, he should win.
So long as Grandouet doesn’t win, I’ll be fairly happy. I will feel sick if I find that I have jumped off a winner!
After fancying Grandouet ever since the International, I have reluctantly jumped ship. His preparation has been awful and the vibes seem to get worse every day. The ground is also not ideal.
This left me torn between Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar. I hate two things in racing:
1.
Backing short-priced favourites in competitive races
2.
Making the same mistake twice (
backed HF last year
)
But…I am going to break my own rules. Somebody on this thread made the excellent point: "imagine how far Hurricane Fly would have won Zarkandar’s races by". I totally agree. The form book shows quite clearly that he was not himself in this race last year for whatever reason. If he is at his best, he should win.
So long as Grandouet doesn’t win, I’ll be fairly happy. I will feel sick if I find that I have jumped off a winner!
lol given the henderson’s stable history in putting people away, grandouet must be a cert
Difficult to know how to quantify Grandouet has now. Before the rumours (and slightly softer ground than expected) I had him down as exactly the same chance as Zarkandar but now a lot less. However, at current prices think he’s worth taking a chance on.
This is my idea of their chances, 100% book:
Hurricane Fly 11/4 (26.67%),Rock On Ruby 4/1
(21% (almost mid-way between 7/2 and 4/1)), Zarkandar 4/1 (21%),
Grandouet 13/2
(13%), Binocular 10/1 (9%), Countrywide Flame 25/1 (3.75%), Cinders And Ashes 28/1 (3.25%), Khyber Kym 80/1 (2%), Balder Success 300/1 (0.33%).
Hurricane + one of ROR and Zark having slightly less than a 50% combined chance (roughly 11/10).
One of ROR and Zark + the rest having a slightly better than 50% combined chance (roughly 10/11)
Grandouet + Binocular combined shade (by just 1%) ROR on its own (or Zark on his own).
"Outsiders" combined – from Grandouet down to Balder Success having a better chance (31.3%) than the "favourite" on his own (26.67%)
Counntrywide, Cinders and Khyber combined being exactly the same chance as Binocuar on his own.
Value Is EverythingAfter fancying Grandouet ever since the International, I have reluctantly jumped ship. His preparation has been awful and the vibes seem to get worse every day. The ground is also not ideal.
This left me torn between Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar. I hate two things in racing:
1.
Backing short-priced favourites in competitive races
2.
Making the same mistake twice (
backed HF last year
)
But…I am going to break my own rules. Somebody on this thread made the excellent point: "imagine how far Hurricane Fly would have won Zarkandar’s races by". I totally agree. The form book shows quite clearly that he was not himself in this race last year for whatever reason. If he is at his best, he should win.
So long as Grandouet doesn’t win, I’ll be fairly happy. I will feel sick if I find that I have jumped off a winner!
That was me regarding how far Hurricane Fly would have beaten Khyber Kim. I’m putting HF in more bets now.
And Elgransegnor, this Chemical Nicky stuff is just bloody tedious.
Difficult to know how to quantify Grandouet has now. Before the rumours (and slightly softer ground than expected) I had him down as exactly the same chance as Zarkandar but now a lot less. However, at current prices think he’s worth taking a chance on.
This is my idea of their chances, 100% book:
Hurricane Fly 11/4 (26.67%),Rock On Ruby 4/1
(21% (almost mid-way between 7/2 and 4/1)), Zarkandar 4/1 (21%),
Grandouet 13/2
(13%), Binocular 10/1 (9%), Countrywide Flame 25/1 (3.75%), Cinders And Ashes 28/1 (3.25%), Khyber Kym 80/1 (2%), Balder Success 300/1 (0.33%).
Hurricane + one of ROR and Zark having slightly less than a 50% combined chance (roughly 11/10).
One of ROR and Zark + the rest having a slightly better than 50% combined chance (roughly 10/11)
Grandouet + Binocular combined shade (by just 1%) ROR on its own (or Zark on his own).
"Outsiders" combined – from Grandouet down to Balder Success having a better chance (31.3%) than the "favourite" on his own (26.67%)
Counntrywide, Cinders and Khyber combined being exactly the same chance as Binocuar on his own.
sounds like you’ve been spending too much time on this race ginger!
isn’t this going to be run at a dawdle? if so then it’ll be set up for the horse with the best turn of foot- grandouet.
i’d ignore anything negative coming out of the yard about this horse- wasn’t it a similar story with binocular a few years back?
A horses condition can change in a day. It started the race at a single figure price, not 50-1.
I’ve heard Nicholls say that a horse isn’t ready to win before watching it bolt up, and i’ve heard him napping a horse that finishes nowhere
This isn’t algebra.
sounds like you’ve been spending too much time on this race ginger!
isn’t this going to be run at a dawdle? if so then it’ll be set up for the horse with the best turn of foot- grandouet.
i’d ignore anything negative coming out of the yard about this horse- wasn’t it a similar story with binocular a few years back?
Not much time at all EGS, 15 minutes.
I am less concerned with the pace angle than I was now ROR wears blinkers.
Just because Binocular came back from negative vibes does not mean Grandouet will and they were totally different anyway. Henderson told the press Binocular wasn’t well and would not make the Festival. However, I remember going to Newbury’s Cheltenham Preview a week before the race, the news from the stable was AP had ridden Binocular in a sparkling piece of work just
that day
. So despite how people remember it, the vibes for Binocular from a week prior to Cheltenham were actually very good indeed.
Where as Henderson has never said a bad word about Grandouet’s wellbeing. As you say EGS, Grandouet has speed, but therefore you’d expect him to be a good worker at home. For such a negative market move the odds are there’s been a problem (however slight) for him to work poorly. Possibly a minor issue, possibly more major, possibly just a made up story, we don’t know. May be he was back to his exhuberent self soon afterwards… but can’t "ignore" it totally. Grandouet’s chance must be marked down, at least to some degree.
Personally, I hope Grandouet does prove the vibes wrong.
Value Is EverythingHindsight is a wonderful thing, but only this season have we been allowed to fully appreciate the form of
Rock On Ruby
– a very underrated Champion Hurdle winner.
In 2011 he made a race of it against over two miles-five against both Bobs Worth (Classic Novices’) and First Lieutenant (Neptune Investment). Both have developed into top class chasers and are respective favourites for their primary targets at The Festival.
His seasonal debut last season resulted in an ultra-impressive success in the Gerry Feilden Hurdle under top weight. The Alan King-trained Raya Star (now rated 159) was given 13lb and a 10L beating that afternoon.
We are told that he had the run of the race last year. Well, twelve months later and with no obvious pace in the race, he may just have his own way again with the wily Noel Fehily in the saddle. His studious trainer will introduce headgear to the reigning champion and I think few will argue based on all available evidence.
His excess-stamina over two miles will always be a weapon in such a contest, particularly on soft ground (has acted on the surface before), and if the first-time headgear does have the desired influence then it could quite easily eek out further improvement.
He is workmanlike and tough rather than impressive, and can not boast fashionable connections, but such ignorance only makes him a more attractive betting proposition.
I have also backed both
Grandouet
@12s, likewise
Cinders And Ashes
, during the season.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but only this season have we been allowed to fully appreciate the form of
Rock On Ruby
– a very underrated Champion Hurdle winner.
In 2011 he made a race of it against over two miles-five against both Bobs Worth (Classic Novices’) and First Lieutenant (Neptune Investment). Both have developed into top class chasers and are respective favourites for their primary targets at The Festival.
His seasonal debut last season resulted in an ultra-impressive success in the Gerry Feilden Hurdle under top weight. The Alan King-trained Raya Star (now rated 159) was given 13lb and a 10L beating that afternoon.
We are told that he had the run of the race last year. Well, twelve months later and with no obvious pace in the race, he may just have his own way again with the wily Noel Fehily in the saddle. His studious trainer will introduce headgear to the reigning champion and I think few will argue based on all available evidence.
His excess-stamina over two miles will always be a weapon in such a contest, particularly on soft ground (has acted on the surface before), and if the first-time headgear does have the desired influence then it could quite easily eek out further improvement.
He is workmanlike and tough rather than impressive, and can not boast fashionable connections, but such ignorance only makes him a more attractive betting proposition.
I have also backed both
Grandouet
@12s, likewise
Cinders And Ashes
, during the season.
do you think rock on ruby is as good as hardy eustace though bosranic? that’s the horse i’d most compare him to, as he was underrated trying to come back and reclaim his crown. or maybe he doesn’t need to be.
just can’t see hurricane fly winning, I think it would take an exceptional horse to break this stat about regaining champion hurdles, and I just don’t see him in that category.
With the ground going the way it is I can very well see Hurricane Fly winning this, without his interrupted campaign of last season could of well been going for a hat trick this time around and I have also jumped ship regarding Grandouet just cant have him at all with the ground and his build up to the race.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
do you think rock on ruby is as good as hardy eustace though bosranic? that’s the horse i’d most compare him to, as he was underrated trying to come back and reclaim his crown. or maybe he doesn’t need to be.
just can’t see hurricane fly winning, I think it would take an exceptional horse to break this stat about regaining champion hurdles, and I just don’t see him in that category.
I can certainly understand why you would compare him to Hardy Eustace – these tough, workmanlike performers are often underrated.
However, they both share the most important attribute that often gets overlooked – class. First and foremost, they have / had the ability to make themselves competitive, but their superior courage made them champions.
Rock On Ruby has always appeared to be idling when getting his head in front – whether it be marginal or decisive – and there’s every chance the chosen pacifier will also improve the way he travels and his hurdling technique at the business end of a race, which can be sloppy.
It is hard to say if he’s in the same league as Hardy Eustance just yet, but any horse that can make a race of it over two miles-five against the likes of Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant before coming back in trip to win a Champion Hurdle must have more than a touch of class. He also has an outstandind weight-carry performance to his name (looks even better now after the exploits of Raya Star) and everything points to him being yet another unfashionable horse that many choose to ignore.
With the ground going the way it is I can very well see Hurricane Fly winning this, without his interrupted campaign of last season could of well been going for a hat trick this time around and I have also jumped ship regarding Grandouet just cant have him at all with the ground and his build up to the race.
These conditions – including the wintery weather, not just the ground – would favour the Fly, surely.
Yes, exactly Mark. Out of all the favs with the price boost at Ladbrokes this morning Hurricane Fly was the standout for me even more so than Quevega because of the conditions and it’s the complete opposite to what Grandouet would like.
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
A toss up between the front two in the market,
Hurricane Fly has been impressive although not beating much as Zarkandar has, no doubt Zarkandar will push him all the way here. The ground should help Zarkandar when he was badly out paced last year round the corner. I think though this will be Hurricane Flys best performance round here so Zarkandar is going to have to put his best performance in yet.
Cant have Rock On Ruby, looks like he is only going to set the race up on this kind of ground, a very lucky winner last time out and well defeated by Zarkandar, cant have him.
Hope Binouclar wins though.
hurricane fly had three races this season compared to one last year small field in his favour also soft ground looks the winner to me
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