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I would like to admit I saw Barry Dennis lurking online a little earlier and thought I might get a response If i hurried up!
When bookies and layers decide upon their "bismarck", what factors go into deciding it? Is it based solely on the assumption that the odds for the horse isn’t right or is it based on public perception or even the intricacys of its form?
Eg would layers be happy to bismarck George Washington next time it runs on the basis that the horse will be trading shorter than it should be and has a temperament problem? Or would a bismarck always be at a Group 2 performer that can’t win at Group 1 level that is favourite for a group 1?
Or is it based mainly on a form perspective eg a mud lover who is odds on for a race on good ground?
I’ve always wondered what makes bookies "go out to get a horse" with such confidence. Particulary as Barry Dennis’s bismarcks nearly always lose! Is it the form or the betting that is the main influence?
A hype horse who is overbet due to who the connections are as opposed to one who has shown its talent on the racecourse.
Presumably it is merely the best value lay of a horse whose price is shorter than it’s mathematic chance in the eyes of the ‘bismarker’.
As 9 out of 10 horses lose every race, on average, you can get a 90% Bismark "success" rate merely by using a pin. Of those near the front of the market, on form, it could be those horses whose last efforts (even winning ones) show clear signs of moving towards a downturn in form.
Anybody read Richard Birch in the RP.He said Rooster Booster was the lay of all time when he won the Champion Hurdle and more recently Yes Sir at Market Rasen.He has an absolutely chronic record with his lay of the day.Not as easy as it seems.
Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 9:08 pm on Oct. 5, 2006[br]I would like to admit I saw Barry Dennis lurking online a little earlier and thought I might get a response If i hurried up!
When bookies and layers decide upon their "bismarck", what factors go into deciding it? Is it based solely on the assumption that the odds for the horse isn’t right or is it based on public perception or even the intricacys of its form?
Eg would layers be happy to bismarck George Washington next time it runs on the basis that the horse will be trading shorter than it should be and has a temperament problem? Or would a bismarck always be at a Group 2 performer that can’t win at Group 1 level that is favourite for a group 1?
Or is it based mainly on a form perspective eg a mud lover who is odds on for a race on good ground?
I’ve always wondered what makes bookies "go out to get a horse" with such confidence. Particulary as Barry Dennis’s bismarcks nearly always lose! Is it the form or the betting that is the main influence?<br>
Surely a bookmaker wouldnt really want to share such intimate thoughts with us….could it just be all a ploy.
SHL
if you had been up early and listened to morning line extra, todays bismarck was red rock canyon at gowran park.
not impressed with its goodwood run
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