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That is the bleakest post I’ve ever read on this board, seagull – I feel like going back to bed.
Quote: from Seagull on 9:28 am on April 23, 2007[br]<br>Industry prices? who cares! <br>S.P. prices? who cares!<br>Its the exchange prices that matter.<br>
Dead right.
I find it surprising that anyone who is – or has aspirations to be – a profitable punter bothers with bookmakers at all nowadays or, on a selfish level, is concerned what dubious practices they get upto. Long since stopped using them other than when making an increasingly rare appearance on course and nine times out of ten shoot myself in the foot by taking under the exchange odds in the process. So while going racing remains an enjoyable experience in its own right (as still is the atmos of the ring) it’s an increasingly costly one punting-wise.
Of course from a moral point of view all punters, serious and recreational, should be concerned about these squalid methods (eloquently described in Seagull’s post and elsewhere) employed by the bookmakers and forums such as this are an excellent place to at least try and educate the unintiated so going a little way towards preventing the usual time-honoured scenario of the needy being fleeced by the greedy.
Exchanges, commission warts ‘n’ all, if not the betting nirvana they once were can be the only place to bet from both a profit AND moral motive.
Roll over Coral tell Ladbrokes the news; that was then, this is now.
The Big 3 and Betfair.
Does British horseracing suffer from “institutionalised corruptionâ€ÂÂ
Riddler,
Have you been on a writing course recently? I pretty much understood everything you said there.. Thats the second time in two weeks thats happened :biggrin:
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Quote: from Artemis on 12:46 pm on April 23, 2007[br]Seagull,
I agree with the sentiment of your post.
SP is finished – probably always was – for anyone who wants to make money at the game. Industry prices will be less favourable to the punter than SP. Exchanges are the only hope and then you have to beat the commission. The golden age for punters was fleeting.<br>
While sp might be finished in your own betting, you just cannot generalise your experiences as everyone’s.<br>On Saturday I backed Emmpat at sp; best early price 11/4, returned 0/30. Not an isolated incident either, plenty of other examples available, week in, week out, and they can, and do, make an appreciable difference to the bottom line.<br>Also, have you ever stopped to consider what happens without sp’s? Do you honestly believe in an exchange-returned market prices can’t be manipulated? There is reams of evidence to the contrary.<br>Freedom of choice will always be a better bet!<br>
Brilliant informative forum and a witty posting from Aragorn which made me chuckle. It’s when AR gets involved with the mathematics my brain shuts down.<br>
reet hard,
I agree that some people can make money backing at SP in the short term. This has to be so, otherwise nobody would back horses at all. My point is that in the long term, relentless SP percentages opposing punters will beat everybody. Every day, some people will get a fair bet at SP on a horse they expected to be shorter, but the same people cannot do it consistently. The game isn’t set up like that any more.
I have to agree with you that exchanges are just as likely to be manipulated by betting cartels as any other system of returning odds on which all bets not struck at a price will be settled.
What’s required is a fair and fixed take out from every race, similar to the tote. It should be between 10 and 20 per cent depending on number of runners and type of race. There is not a snowball in hell’s chance of it happening, so no point speculating about it.
Quote: from Nor1 on 6:07 pm on April 23, 2007[br]Brilliant informative forum and a witty posting from Aragorn which made me chuckle. It’s when AR gets involved with the mathematics my brain shuts down.
Exactly, Nor1, who has the spare time or resources to bother with a thorough mathematical analysis – “institutionalised corruptionâ€ÂÂ
To suggest that exchanges are as open to manipulation as the on-course market is nonsense.
To artifically shorten one on an exchange you have to pour in enogh money to both ‘fill up’ those that can identify the horse is artificially short and scare them off coming back for more. Moreover, the overall percentages are virtually bombproof – you can shorten one but the others will then drift in sympathy.
Shortening one on-course, by contrast, requires no transactions to take place. The big three rep merely rubs off one price and replaces it with a shorter one. He can, and often does, do this for every single horse in the race!
another 2% per runner bookie benefit in the "lucky last" at Windsor
have to agree with glenn regarding the exchange price manipulation. The 100% overround makes it bombproof
I fear that in the longer term this method of returning SP’s will kill off horse racing, because punters have no chance at all of getting a decent run for their money at the kind of prices that we are seeing now.
I also believe that those who think that betting exchanges will offer value over the longer term will be sorely disappointed when they don’t. When the exchanges markets catch up, I believe we will start to see overrounds on BF and the likes because backers have no where else to go, there will be a price and you’ll be able to bet, take it or leave it. Why should layers on exchanges compete, when they don’t have to?
This whole scheme is a classic case of short term profiteering with no thought for the future of the sport.
I do agree with Wallace about an Industry SP .. they have deliberately broken a proper SP system, so they can bring in a new one, that will be better than the current shambles but worse than the old one.
Money from punters is what is paying for the whole show, some people seem to have forgotten that.
It has to be said that there is value in using both exchanges and fixed odds, especially at EPs. In the morning you will often find that a "live" horse will shorten up first on Betfair whilst the fixed odds bookmakers tend to be marginally behind. Prices collapse "on the machine" a lot quicker than at fixed odds; be that at EP or on the shows.
Quote: from reet hard on 5:31 pm on April 23, 2007[br]On Saturday I backed Emmpat at sp; best early price 11/4, returned 0/30. Not an isolated incident either, plenty of other examples available, week in, week out, and they can, and do, make an appreciable difference to the bottom line.
If you can predict what horses will shorten and what horses will lengthen with the sort of regularity you claim, the exchanges is exactly where you should be. I don’t like trading myself but if I could do what you claim, I’d quit my job tomorrow and go full time on Betfair.
Quote: from reet hard on 5:31 pm on April 23, 2007[br]
<br>On Saturday I backed Emmpat at sp; best early price 11/4, returned 0/30. Not an isolated incident either, plenty of other examples available, week in, week out, and they can, and do, make an appreciable difference to the bottom line.
Naturally, the SPs of winners will on occasions be better than early prices, just as exchange drifters sometimes win. But the uncomfortable fact about betting at SP is that, in essence, you’re requesting an unknown and once the bet is struck you’re no longer in control of it: you might get lucky and get a drift winner, you might equally be shafted by a 7/4 early doors winner punted into Evs…who knows?
I was about to point out what Drone just has, using Poker De Sivola today as an example (I got 1.8 on BF at lunchtime, returned 10/11).
I think if you were to ask most knowing people, there is some merit in betting SP sometimes. If you can see there is no money for a horse in the morning, there is often less chance of there being money for it on the course, thus SP is a rational option (again, see PDS today: Very mildly backed for a 4/6 shot early on). However, 8/9 times out of 10 sensible punters will see the exchanges as the safest option to get decent value.
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Quote: from Glenn on 7:06 pm on April 23, 2007[br]To suggest that exchanges are as open to manipulation as the on-course market is nonsense.<br>
Glenn<br>Your nonsense;  that isn’t what I wrote.
Do you mean to suggest that none of the on-course money finds its way on to the exchanges; that the big 3 wouldn’t dream of stiffing their punters if they paid out on exchange sp’s, and that the likes of Jonathan Ramsden and Brian Wright will never be seen again.<br>I am all for stopping the current fraud that is acted out between big bookmakers and their on-course minions – were it any other industry, it would be seen as the corruption of the market it clearly is – but I fail to see the sense in ditching a system that has worked to the reasonable satisfaction of so many for so long, just to weed out the current bunch of chancers.
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