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Sir Percy for me. The vibes are good, the Derby is working out and he gets the weight. Will not go down without a fight at least, (assuming he turns up).
The Sportsman today appeared to predict the second coming of Sea Bird II with the Japanese horse.:biggrin:
In Hurricane Run and Shirocco, Fabre has the 2 best horses in Europe.
They’re running over the right distance and they’ve been aimed at this race by the trainer that knows more about prepping a horse for the Arc than anyone else.
So, I’ll have those 2.
Rail Link looks a smart horse, but seems to be the stable 3rd string.
(there’s no talk of taking Soumi off Shirocco – assuming the Aga Khan isn’t taking him – and putting him onto Rail Link)
If Fabre thinks he’s #3, I’ll take his word for it.
As for the Japanese horse, do we really know how good he is?
He could be the best 12f horse in the world. Or just another Japanese star that turns out to be below top European standard.
I’ve watched a number of his races and think that his "come from the clouds" style isn’t going to suit Longchamp.
So, at current odds, I’d be against him rather than for him.
Outside of those 4, I just can’t see it.
Hopefully Sir Percy will turn up and be bet down by the English fans as that’ll give me something to lay.
Steve
I have just voted for HR. Im surprised at the lack of interest in HR, given the way he won last years race, appreciates a big field and has the best jockey in the world on board. He wins well imo and from what Im seeing and hearing, I wont be taking a price. What price can he drift to I wonder??<br>The only thing that would turn me off is hard ground, which is very unlikely.
Anyone read nick Maudlin this week?
his criteria for the winner of the arc was, < 4 runs with at least two RPR’s of 117+
Then he went on to list the relevant horses
But didnt include Sir Percy! two runs RPRS of 120 and 121
Now, unless ive missed something, someone whos as keen on stats as he is, cannot be selective about the results can he? Not much credibility there is there? :)
Clive, it’s clear that Maudlin the Eccentric just isn’t a fan of the new iron horse; we know that from June.
Once again, the bank manager will referee. :biggrin:
his criteria for the winner of the arc was, < 4 runs with at least two RPR’s of 117+
I flicked through the article.
He pointed out the success rate of 3yo french colts in the Arc (well, duh!) and used that as the basis to say that Rail Link was Fabre’s best chance.
However, Fabre seems to think that Rail Link is his number 3.
And I know who I’m likely to listen to on this one.
Personally, I think the thing about French 3yo’s is less relevant this year.
More and more top French horses are being kept in training and being run in the arc beyond the age of 3 (remember older French horses finished 2-4th last year).
When was the last time the French 3yo’s had to deal with older horses of the quality of Shirocco and HR who were trained for this race?
IMO, old stats are not a good predictor when key factors have changed.
Steve
Quote: from stevedvg on 1:21 pm on Sep. 15, 2006[br]his criteria for the winner of the arc was, < 4 runs with at least two RPR’s of 117+
I flicked through the article.
He pointed out the success rate of 3yo french colts in the Arc (well, duh!) and used that as the basis to say that Rail Link was Fabre’s best chance.
However, Fabre seems to think that Rail Link is his number 3.
And I know who I’m likely to listen to on this one.
Personally, I think the thing about French 3yo’s is less relevant this year.
More and more top French horses are being kept in training and being run in the arc beyond the age of 3 (remember older French horses finished 2-4th last year).
When was the last time the French 3yo’s had to deal with older horses of the quality of Shirocco and HR who were trained for this race?
IMO, old stats are not a good predictor when key factors have changed.
Steve
I suppose the French 3 year olds look very poor. Certainly there Derby was not up to scratch
SHL
I suppose the French 3 year olds look very poor.
I wouldn’t necessarily agree with that.
Visindar looked special, but got injured.
And, if you took the 2 older Fabre horses out of the Arc, Rail Link would be pretty short odds.
And, to me, that’s the point: there’s these 2 exceptional older French horses that are both better than all the 3yos (English, Irish as well as French).
Certainly there Derby was not up to scratch
… just like this year’s English derby…
Remember, 2 years ago the Jockey Club was a really poor race (won by Bleu Canari), but a French 3yo still won the Arc.
Anyway, these days I’d be more inclined to look towards the GP de Paris and the Irish Derby to find the French 3yo that’s most likely to win the Arc.
Steve
I am amazed that Hurricane Run is trailing in this vote as I am confident that he will win the Arc with a degree of comfort. For me he’ll be at least half a stone better on that day than he has been thus far this season and that will be enough to confirm placings with those who finished behind him last year, decisively defeat the young pretenders and send the Asian upstart off for the first plane with his tail between his highly revered hind legs.
Deep Impact will win. Probably by several lengths. Shirocco or Hurricane will be second. I think there might be a biggish gap to the fourth.:cool:
Word has it that Shirocco will have a massive german following on Arc weekend complete with banners and flags and his price will be a lot smaller on the track than it is at present (4.6 on betfair) they even play the music from the movie Das Boot,thats the one about the submarine being hunted by the brits in WW2 in his box! you have been warned he will never surrender…
Frank – welcome to the forum – great first post!
I love the idea of the Das Boat theme being played in Shirocco’s box.
I’ve sent a text to Fabre asking him to run a CD of the Jaws soundtrack in H.Run’s box.
I can see it now.
They’re entering the final final furlong. <br>Deep Impact and Shirocco are neck and neck, straining every sinew, reaching for the wire, one of them bound for glory and immortality.
Then…
de dooh………de dooh……
….a dark shadow begins to loom, unnoticed, on the tails of those two great beasts…..
de dooh…de dooh….
…it ranges up, and as the darkness begins to engulf the leading pair, they glance sideways, terror enters their eyes….
de dooh..de dooh..
..terror turns to horror and both horses look towards the darkness, a look of startled surprise on their faces as the teeth of this magnificent monster collapse around them, all encompassing and merciless..<br><br>de dooh,de dooh, de dooh, de dooh, de dooh
almost before it’s begun it’s all over, the ocean is calm….
…a tiny spot of crimson emerges on the surface, it grows larger, then the redness bubbles frantically to the surface, in a gothic chaotic madness.
Hurricane Run has won the Arc.
Deep Impact and Shirocco, heads bowed, bodies trembling, stagger back to their stable.
<br>"Sometimes that shark he looks right into ya. Right into your eyes. And, you know, the thing about a shark… he’s got lifeless eyes. Black eyes. Like a doll’s eyes. When he comes at ya, doesn’t seem to be living… until he bites ya, and those black eyes roll over white and then… ah then you hear that terrible high-pitched screamin’. The ocean turns red, and despite all the poundin’ and the hollerin’, they all come in and they… rip you to pieces."
Das Boot is an excellent film. (Avoid the dubbed version at all costs though).<br>Deep Impact is a wonderful horse. They happen every now and then. Shirocco and Hurricane Run are just very, very good ones.<br>I feel like someone who’s tried to warn paddlers of a tsunami. (Don’t give me any pc carp for that, please,).<br>Zorro is headed for the rich house.
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