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Breeders Cup Turf usually run on a firm surface and tight turns mean speed is usually an important factor; can’t see a USA trip suiting.
From the market, it looks as though Postponed will be lining up in the Champion Stakes!
If that’s right – a strange decision for one seemingly best suited by a strongly run mile and a half. That said – suppose if Golden Horn turns up in Paris, New Bay and Treve… Champion looks a far more open race this year than the Arc.Value Is EverythingI suspect Cumani would not have been as frank as he has been in his bafflement had there been any underlying issues. Occasionally, like in any other walk of life, you get owners who do inexplicable things. I posted a few days ago that the Sheikh had removed his own stable jockey from a horse because, ‘he had not been lucky on him’.
That alone should have rang loud alarm bells with Cumani. It’s a very small step from there to ‘My trainer is no longer lucky’.
If Varian is smart, he will never budget for the sheik’s horses to be in his yard beyond the payment he receives in his bank each month. Very hard to turn away that kind of business, but there would have been old school trainers who would not have accepted horses from unpredictable owners. Daniel Wildenstein was the worst: Peter Walwyn once described accepting DW’s horses as ‘the worst mistake of my life’. The family had such a reputation for taking horses away from trainers there was a joke on course at the time that the official in charge of the winners’ enclosure used to shout ‘Wildenstein!’ rather than the usual ‘horses away!’
Perhaps Sheikh Obaid is on his way to taking over the DW mantle.
Free Eagle has to be value at 12/1 from what i was seeing in the Irish Champion
Free Eagles was coming to claim Golden HornsFree Eagle has to be value at 12/1 from what i was seeing in the Irish Champion
Free Eagles was coming to claim Golden HornsLooked beaten that day to me. First time up to this trip…that and the fact that he is not a 3 y old (or Treve) and 12/1 doesnt seem wonderful to me. Found also has failed to beat a lot of fillies this year so this is a big step up….
Flintshire at a much bigger price might be a nice bit of each way. Overall if the ground is good, id probably side with Gosdens horse at the price unless Treve drifts sufficiently.
SHL
The value et to me is found. Looks like she’s been crying out for a mile and a half and on good going will be there at the business end. Can’t be sure which golden horn turns up and new bay at the moment doesn’t look good enough. Should be a cracking race with as usual a brilliant card on arc day. If ground is good or slower maarek in the abbaye is in my thoughts.
I think this is the best renewal for years. What a race we have to look forward to now Golden Horn is taking his chance.
The three at the top of the market look to be in a different league to the others and it would be no surprise which ever of the three wins the contest.
I have a huge respect for Treve she is an obvious class act and looks sure to take an awful lot of beating. New Bay is young and could be anything, quite clearly a danger but I’ll go for Golden Horn. Following his Epsom Derby win Golden Horn has raced only at ten furlongs after John Gosden messed up taking the horse out of the King George and running instead at York. Finally Golden Horn gets to run again at what I believe is his best trip. If he runs to his Derby form he has to be right there at the finish and it’s not impossible that he can run to a career high rating given the conditions of Sunday’s race.
Whoever wins racing is the biggest winner this weekend.
Golden Horn not got the best of the draw. He comes out of stall 14. Treve drawn 8, New Bay 5.
Iam soooooooooooooooo looking forward to this!!
I have backed New Bay at 7/1 and Golden Horn at 8/1 but to be honest I don’t mind what wins as long as it is a great race which it looks like being.
Two more sleeps !!
For me there are two races which are head shoulders and probably all the way down to the waist above everything else and they are the Derby and the Arc !! I know loads of people won’t agree with me but hey ho.
I hope Golden Horn gives Joe a run for his Ante-Post money,I do love a bit of foresight.Good luck to Darren too on Free Eagle for the same reasons…..I of course have to be on Tapestry at 33/1 e/w of course.
I backed Free Eagle for the Derby minutes after he crossed the line in his maiden so I can’t let him win an Arc without a bet at 16/1.
Seriously though, he looks the value in the race for me, it would have been tight between him and Golden Horn last time and he’s triple the price, while he had Found cooked and she is only marginally bigger now. He’ll like the ground and provided h gets the trip I expect him to be in the shake up. He’s open to plenty of improvement with his last run being after a break and also being just his sixth career start.
I recall Treve had an arthritic back last year. This didn’t stop her winning and doesn’t seem to be an issue now, but I am surprised it hasn’t been mentioned in pre-race discussion. Anyway I think the Treve odds are too short given it’s a large field and a rough race sometimes.
I love Treve, I put him up on here and backed him his last two Arc wins.
If he is fit and well and if he doesn’t get bad luck in running, I can’t
see him getting beat. However, at odds marginally better than evens, there
is enough that could go wrong that doesn’t make him value at those odds.I think that Erupt is the value in the race. He did nothing wrong in his
first four races, winning handsomely in the Juddmonte Grand Prix De Paris,
he looked impressive. I can’t remember his odds at that time for The ARC,
but they were nowhere near the 33/1 he is now.His odds lengthened after his last run, in the Qatar Prix Niel, where he started
at 2/1, with New Bay being even money. Erupt looked really well in running,
but clearly tired in the last furlong. He hadn’t raced for 2 months and looked
like he needed the race, which was expressed my Alan Cooper, the racing
manager to the Niarchos family, who stated “we think he blew up as he was blowing
for a particularly long time afterwards” He also said the horse didn’t really
handle the very soft ground. I reckon the ground, which is good to soft at the moment,
certainly won’t be worse than that, and could well be nearer to good come Sunday
(even with a touch of watering).I think there is every reason to think he will be spot on for this and 33/1
(WH &Boylesports still stand this at this time) is very generous.
I don’t think he will be any better than 16/1 or thereabouts at the off.
Even though he wouldn’t beat Treve (if he is well and gets a good run),
he still makes a very good E/W bet. If Treve doesn’t get things his way,
he would be in with a shout of winning this.Looking forward to this immensely. Best of luck.
This will be Treve’s toughest Arc to date , but I think she is more than good enough to see
off the colts’ challenge .For her to win 3 consecutive Arcs would be a phenomenal and historical achievement .
She can do it and I believe she will it do it .No flat race excites me more than the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe .
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