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State Of Paly was impressive in the Hennessy, ran well in the Gold Cup. He is still just 7, seems to go well fresh. He has a lot going for him. He ran poorly at Aintree but he still looks the pick of the race.
I think Ollie Magern, Monkerhostin and Kingscliff’s best days are gone. Kingscliff ran well at Punchestown but other than that was bad last season. The one I would fear is Aces Four but at 12/5 I think I’ll put my money on State Of Play.
You’re right about the disappointing fields though, especially at Down Royal. Its effectively between 3. Must be a doubt about The Listener on the ground and I wasn’t altogether convinced by his win at Leopardstown last Christmas. Justified is a horse I like and it will be interesting to see how he goes at 3 miles. It seemed he didn’t stay last year but the ground will be more favourable now. There is a lot to like about Taranis though. His last 2 runs at Cheltenham and Aintree were impressive. This will be his first run over 3 miles but he has age, ground and a small field, so at 11/10 I think I’ve talked myself into backing him.
BETS: Back State Of Play 3.4
Back Taranis 2.12
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I can’t really see the distance being a problem for Taranis.
He stayed 2m 6f well in a soft ground Sandown hurdle, and produced an enormous jump at the last in the Ryanair which he couldn’t have done had he been near the end of his reserves. His trainer has long thought him capable of 3m too.
The Listener may find things happening too fast for him on this ground, and with Justified never looking like a 3 miler, Taranis should win this.In the Charlie Hall, State Of Play has always been a horse who didn’t stand a lot of racing, so his Aintree run can be forgiven after his Cheltenham exertions. Had he not been messed about in the Gold Cup he would probably have finished in front of Monkerhostin, and beat Kingscliffe anyway, which is good form in the context of this race, and better than anything Aces Four has achieved so far. There is also a suspicion that the latter will have other targets this season, while State Of Play appears to have been aimed specifically at this race.
2 good races to watch, both as competitive as you would expect at this stage of the season imo.
There is no doubting Aces Fours’ ability.
But in my opinion, his jumping isn’t the best and doesn’t fill me with confidence.
Anybody thinking of backing "Aces Four" might just take heed of his trainers comments in RP.
Ferdy Murphy trainer of Aces Four :
There is plenty of pace with State of Play & Ollie Magern and that will probably help us. I don’t want to be fighting for the lead and have a hard race. I think he is going to be ok dropping in and we will just have a good school around and hopefully we might get a bit of prize – money, which would be lovely. We train them to get through the season and we never have them wound up first time out. He will improve for the run & he would nearly want to be at the top of his game to win it.
I don’t know what price he is on betfair to lay as I type, a lot bigger than he should be I would say, people will probably lay this beast all day until the cows come in to feed.
Here is a trainer openly admitting his horse is barely off a yard, some might say thats a good thing at least he admits it unlike other trainers who keep punters in the dark.
But there has to be something seriously wrong with the jump racing calender that a £51,318 first prize grade 2 contest is treated with disdain."The stewards might just take note of the trainers words, "we will just have a good school around"
"we will just have a good school round"
……………as they did with Three Mirrors at Wetherby yesterday.
Colin
Aces Four is a terrific prospect but it’s well documented (and generally true) how Murphy’s horses tend to improve for a run at this time of year. I was at Wetherby yesterday and his Three Mirrors, who ran such an eye-catching race in the 3.25, was blowing quite hard afterwards.
State of Play is undoubtedly a leading contender but despite him tending to go well fresh, I’d be a tad concerned that those two tough races last spring may have left a mark on a small, less than robust horse; hence can’t have him at ~3.5.
At the prices it has to be Ollie Magern whose profile is obvious to all: best caught fresh, CD winner, 5lb pull from AF and SOP, has a terrific trainer of staying chasers in equally terrific form, and the new jockey should suit his style of running. I’ve taken 5.9
Betting Tissue:
Ollie Magern 4.8
State of Play 5.6
Aces Four 6.4
Monkerhostin 8.2
Bewleys Berry 11.3
Turko 12.9
Kingscliff 12.9
Madison Du Berlais 18.1For those into ‘dead eight’ EW or Place betting I can see Bewleys Berry – at the odds – who IMO is developing into one needing an extreme test, staying/keeping on up the hill.
Enjoy
At the prices it has to be Ollie Magern whose profile is obvious to all: best caught fresh, CD winner, 5lb pull from AF and SOP, has a terrific trainer of staying chasers in equally terrific form, and the new jockey should suit his style of running. I’ve taken 5.9
Agreed that we probably will see the best of OM today. Whether that will be good enough, I’m not sure but whoever wins it will be very fit as the last mile will find out the rest.
I have a sneaking fancy that Monkerhostin may be back to something like his best so he would be my pick with OM the danger.I’d be amazed if Aces Four is ready for this. Monkerhostin looks a good bet at 8-1. At his best, he is the best horse in the race imo and goes well fresh.
Didn’t Ferdy Murphy say that Hot Weld would be dropped in behind in the Betfred Gold Cup at Sandown last April before the horse went out and won virtually from the front.
I’m taking his comments with a pinch of salt but then I’m already on!!!
Now let us be honest, look at Ferdy Murphy……………..would you buy a second-hand car off him?
Looks as if he’s been sent by central-casting, to play a bent trainer in one of those awful attempts by the TV companies at doing dramas!! with a racing setting.
Colin
Monkerhostin ew, seems the bet at the prices.
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
Yes. Monkerhostin has been a bit overraced at times but has great attitude, probably best form and as said, goes well first time. Hes my bet
Notice that hes not exactly 8/1 with Corals though lol
I keep wondering why Paul Nicholls is running Turko when he has so many other horses….
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Now let us be honest, look at Ferdy Murphy……………..would you buy a second-hand car off him?
Looks as if he’s been sent by central-casting, to play a bent trainer in one of those awful attempts by the TV companies at doing dramas!! with a racing setting.
Colin
Seabird
Do you think the Cooke report was his rehearsal?
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