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Pertemps final 3m
TAPK’s got his eye on one here and Stan James have priced him up at 25/1.
Sybarite
caught my eye big time last time out over the course itself,admittedly he still finished behind horses that will all clash in the final itself but this Jenny Mould (Charter Party/Barton Bank) owned horse looks like one being laid out for this.I have the utmost respect for ‘Big Easy’ too and at 12/1 is worth a punt also.Long term I’d expect
Ulzanas Raid
to progress the furthest but the handicapper is watching him carefully at the moment.I dont fancy the current Fav ‘Batavir’.
Edit,03/02/15
, I think we may have seen the winner of this at Musslebrough on Sunday in
Dawalan
,he got the trip well and has a bit of speed to boot,I took the 12/1 with Bet 365 straight after,
Selection,; Sybarite 25/1 e/w, Dawalan 12/1 e/w
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Ryanair ch 2 1/2m
Just the mention of this race gets me going,probably my luckiest race of the meeting and whenever I think of it I think of the mighty
Albertas Run
.Unlike Joe (Steeplechasing),when I find a good one I stick with it,I cant forget what ‘Cue Card’ did to my good thing a couple of years ago and I still believe the Tizzard horse is the biggest danger to my selection this year.
Taquin du Seuil
at 16/1 did me proud in the ‘Jewson’ last year and straight away I said ‘Ryanair’ even though he’s well tipped up as a Gold Cup horse I’m sticking by my own judgement and that aint easy when we all get influenced by others.’Johns Spirit’ also has ‘Ryanair’ written all over him,he’s too good for handicaps now and thats because he’s improved like the good horse he is,plenty scope for more to come and at 12/1 he too is a player.’Dynaste’ is a worthy fav and ‘Don Cossack’ has progressive form but I can see my lads beating both.
Selection,; Taquin du Seuil 16/1 and Johns Spirit 12/1 e/w
VTC Im all over
Sybarite
at 20/1 for the Pertemps too,his last run was eyecatching to say the least.
Steve,do you remember ‘Tartan Trader’,Tartan tailor; etc too,they were owned by the ‘Edinburgh Woolen Mill’ too.
Tommy,We’re in the ‘Sir des champs’ situation all over again withRule the world
but I’m positive a world hurdle horse can be an RSA one as the pace is slower over fences!
I recall the "Tartan" horses Gord but not in any great detail. I think there was a Tartan Trademark around as well, he seems the one that sticks in my mind.
I have a vague recollection of one of our punters sticking a £80 treble on, and after two winners he was waiting on one of the Tartan horses for about five grand. I phoned the liability in to head office and the General Manager got mixed up as to which Tartan horse it was and wondered why it was as big as 8/1.
I doubt Ladbrokes’ GM would have been as profane with the language as our gaffer was:-
"8/1?, how the ***k can it be 8/1?, has it lost a ***king leg?"
Luckily for my bonus, it never looked likely and the Tartan horse was out of the money.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
World hurdle
If for some reason last years Champion stayer doesn’t turn up for this years renewal then I reckon
Annie Power
will target this rather than the Mares final.Bookmakers go 7/2 ‘More of That’ but 12/1 is freely available about the Mullins Mare and that is huge,personally I’d be going 4/1 the pair as I can see ‘Annie’ pushing Jonjo’s horse even harder this year.My first Ante-Post bet for this was taking 33/1 about
Whisper
progressing to this level after victories against ‘Get me out of Here’ and ‘At Fishers Cross’,I wasn’t totally convinced about his chasing debut so a return to hurdling could still yet be on the cards.’Lieutenant Colonel’ is an RSA horse for next year imo and ‘Beat That’ hasn’t convinced me he’s a World hurdler,’Zarkandar’ will travel till something out-battles him and I just hope ‘Rock on ruby’ doesn’t run,he’d have a better chance runnin em ragged in the Champion hurdle.
Edit, 15/01/15,
Saphir du Rheu
gets a Cleeve hurdle entry and World hurdle entry so have taken the 34’s on the machine for the latter.This decision allows me now to commit to a selection and this fellow is it….’Big Bucks’ here we come!
Selection,; Saphir du Rheu 34’s and 12/1 e/w
Byrne Group plate 21/2m
Stan James are going 20/1 about a previous festival winner here in
Present View
and Imo thats huge to 4 places.The Paddy Power Gold cup form will come to the fore here and thats why the very progressive ‘Caid du Berlais’ is the 10/1 Fav,my fellow will be weighted to reverse that form.’Johns Spirit’will hopefully take the Ryanair route as he is the best horse in the Decs for this.I wouldn’t write off ‘Hunt Ball’ either he’s a Cheltenham horse for sure.
Selection,; Present View 20/1 e/w
Kim Muir 3m 1f ch
‘Hunt Ball’ is the current 14/1 fav for this and again I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him. I have a sneaky feeling for
Rolling Aces
at 20/1,he has bits of solid form that make him a stand out for this,what price would ‘Boston bob’ be for this?..7/2fav I’d say so 20/1 about Paul Barbers charge is worth the risk.Its a race I’ve done exceptionally well in over the years so I dont treat it lightly.
Selection,; Rolling Aces 20/1 e/w
Day 4.
Triumph hurdle 2m
Usually one of the most competitive races of the festival..Not this year,there’s only one horse for this and its Nickys
Peace and Co
,rarely do you see a 3yo perform like he did at Doncaster,he looked like a seasoned Champion hurdler floating round Town moor.TAPK always looks out for a Henderson horse for the Triumph well in advance but for some reason this fellow flew under the radar.I’m on at 6/1 and that will do,he has to go off shorter,another run like his last and he’ll be the shortest priced Triumph horse ever.No dangers,Ok ‘Hargam’ for a place.
Edit 24/01/15
, That went smoothly,different tactics ensure we dont have to make all in the Triumph and he’s still the one to beat.I have taken 33/1 about next years Champion hurdle for this fellow such is the talent still to be unleashed.
Selection,; Peace and Co 6/1 Win only
County hurdle 2m
Garde la Victoire
20/1 is my confident selection here,he will be weighted to beat ‘Bayan’ should he turn up although he must be Coral Cup bound,I like previous Cheltenham form and this fellow of Phillip Hobbs has it.Top weight beckons but he beat a horse I hold in high regard in ‘Vaniteaux’ around the course and I expect him to target this.I hope ‘Regal Encore’ doesn’t win this as I’ve given up on him!’Activial’ has to be a player at 12/1 too,still very unexposed.
Edit 07/02/15
my selection is probably too good for a County hurdle now having won last week in what was always a bit of a Champion hurdle trial but
Activial
did his own chances no harm in todays Betfair hurdle at Newbury.
Selection,;Garde La Victoire 20/1 e/w
.
Albert Bartlett 3m
It would appear that
No More Heroes
6/1 is being aimed at this rather than the Neptune,I hope so as he is a horse on an upward curve and after his Navan victory back in December I decided to take the 10/1.I have always had a soft spot for a ‘Presenting’ Gigginstown horse and this fellow is just that,whether he can make a Gold cup horse will depend on how he fares in this but I certainly cant oppose him.
Selection,;No more Heroes 10/1 e/w
The Gold Cup
This is it,the greatest race of the National hunt season and a race my record is 2nd to None in.TAPK has been given the gift of knowing just who is and who isn’t a Gold cup horse,its a similar gift I have with the ‘Supreme’ and ‘Ryanair’.Sadly I’m not the chosen one with every other race at the festival mind.Right lets not mince about here and cut the Wheat from the Chaff.
Road to Riches
the young pretender has improved a good 20lb since the days of being beaten by ‘Don Cossack’,his Lexus run tells you he’s a player but and this is a big But..He’s actually been on the go since Nov 2013,thats a long time and that is not the profile of a Gold Cup horse so I’m afraid the 2nd fav gets a pen run through him,progressive that he is and of course he’s a Gigginstown.
Silviniaco Conti
, this is a good horse and when he was a 16/1 chance I did say he could be forgiven his effort in last years Gold cup,perplexing! Sadly at 3/1 he is getting the Pen run through him simply because if he gets Good ground he will be outpaced,Soft/Heavy,he wins but we know it wont be that.Thats the 1st and 2nd Fav out then.
Bobs Worth
,There is No way on this planet that if this fellow turns up he goes off at 16/1,any loyal supporter will have taken that by now,I’m not running the Pen through him as I respect his form and he is a place player at that price.I just cant see him winning.
Lord Windermere
,anyone who thinks he fluked last years victory is kidding themselves,he won fair and square and the time confirms it,Davy knew what was under him and rode a very confident race,he’ll do the same this year and again is fighting for a place at 12/1.
Many Clouds
,this fellow looks a Gold Cup horse and his Hennessey run says he looks like one there too,again a 16/1 shot who imo will be right there jumping the last but I expect 4th place at best.Anyone who’s taken to this fellow will be happy with their 16/1 as that looks big to me,he has improvement in him too.
Boston Bob
,I respect Lydia Hyslop enormously,she has put him up as a Gold Cup horse and thats a brave call,this fellow will either Win and win showing his very intermittent turn of foot or he’ll do nothing,I’ve supported this fellow in the past and he’s Won and Lost for me.I cant back them all like Ginge so he’s getting the Pen through him.Sorry Lydia dalling.
Carlingford Lough
isn’t dissimilar to ‘Boston Bob’ he has his good days and his bad but he’s a 9yo 2nd season Novice and that rules him out for me.’Pricewise’ tips him up so again he has to be respected,20/1 is fair.
On his Own
,daft as it sounds this fellow is probably the hardest one to assess,2nd in a Lexus and Gold cup speaks for itself so 20/1 is generous,I just cant see him winning though.
Sam Winner
, 33/1 is too big for a Paul Nicholls horse who stays for fun,he has solid form and is definitely my big priced outsider.I’m not saying he will win but I’m not saying he wont either,he’s a dark horse if you like.
First Lieutenant
40/1 is the forgotten horse here,I rate him this years Grand National winner and have him at 150’s to do it,he has solid form through ‘Bobs worth’ but just remember he’s never got to get his chance in this,I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him win. On Good ground he’ll surprise.
The Giant Bolster
deserves a mention just beacause of his record here,his age will catch him out this year sadly though.At 33/1 I’d prefer ‘Sam Winner’.One who does deserve a mention is
Unioniste
,33/1 not just because John Hales owns him but because he is a very likeable sort,again on soft ground he’d be running for a place big time.
Houblon des Obeaux
,Superb effort in the Hennessey and that piece of form alone tells you he’s entitled to run here,40/1 is very generous about this big beauty.So who’s going to win? Well thats the million dollar question,sadly if I was Superstitious whoever I put up this year will lose as my record in this is I back the Winner every 2nd year!
I need to break that sequence and I have 2 horse to do just that.I’ve said enough about both in the past so all I’ll say is if they jump the last fence together and battle it out I will be as quiet as a Dormouse.I have backed Holywell
at 50/1 down and I’ve backed
Shutthefrontdoor
at 100/1 down.If Richie wins on ‘Holywell’ me and plenty others on here will be celebrating,if AP,gets ‘Shutthefrontdoor’ home Folk will realise just why TAPK is the one and only….
Selections,; Holywell 50/1,Shutthefrontdoor 100/1 both e/w
Me neither Gord, probably just falls short of what’s required for The Ryanair, but I’ve bet him for it anyway. Ii’ll be backing him wherever he goes, and The Byrne Plate looks ideal. If he fails there, then I’ll look at The Topham for him.
Shame about Rock On Ruby not getting an entry for The Champion Hurdle…….I hope they don’t live to regret this.
Day 4 is all about The Gold Cup for me, so nothing else much doing ante-post, but although he’ll have other engagements, I’m going to bet Mr Mole
for The Grand Annual at 14’s, it looks ideal for him I reckon. Savello, last year, was my first ever winner in the race, so I’m on a rollAs always a good read and hopefully a good few winners too
‘Hopefully’ Gary?..As night turns to day there will be Double priced winners on this thread and at those prices I only need 2 or 3 to come in to make a profit.Of course I average about 7 winners every year and this year I’ve promised Lil un 2 weeks in Florida in August so we aint messin about here.
The Pertemps is always a cracker but like you I seem to do well and have pulled off some cracking wins and massive places.
I’ve followed you in with Sybarite as I like connections but my fancy at 14s (win only) is Nicky Henderson’s Cup Final – probably too inexperienced to be fair BUT if he sneaks in off 136 he could go close, and more importantly at a lot shorter than 14s
The Pertemps is always a cracker but like you I seem to do well and have pulled off some cracking wins and massive places.
I’ve followed you in with Sybarite as I like connections but my fancy at 14s (win only) is Nicky Henderson’s Cup Final – probably too inexperienced to be fair BUT if he sneaks in off 136 he could go close, and more importantly at a lot shorter than 14s
Yes I’d be watching market moves on him for sure Gary,like yourself I think he’s big at 14/1..I hate to miss ‘Mcmanus’winners at the festival.
Youre sitting pretty with Dodging Bullets as I cannot have Sprinter Sacre turning the tables, I would not at all be surprised if we do not see the Dark Destroyer back on the track again sadly.
RSA 3m
Another fav race of mine and again the old will he/wont he run in this? question surfaces but at 25/1
Rule the World
is the over-priced horse of the race,his form is that of an RSA horse and potential Gold cup horse so I’m on e/w at the moment keeping my fingers crossed.My main fancy for this ‘was’
Saphir du Rheu
16/1 but he’s still a great big baby and needs to grow up fast if he’s even going to line up,his jumping is good but he cant find a leg when he needs one and that concerns me,I haven’t lost faith in him yet though.Another horse I’ve been lucky with is
Whisper
but I have taken 33’s about him winning the World hurdle a while back so I’d prefer him not to run in this.’Coneygree’ is another ‘Carruthers’ a grand sort but not an RSA horse,’Kings Palace’ is too short for what he achieves he let his supporters down at last years festival and I dont trust him.Anyone who’s got double figures on ‘Don Poli’ will be sitting comfortably knowing he is a proper RSA horse too but at the prices I’m going to have a sneaky tilt at
Rule the World
to make up for my dissapointment in ‘First Lieutenent’ getting beat in this.
Selection,; Rule the world 25/1 e/w.
As you know Gord I love this horse but do you think three miles is really what he wants? I just don’t think he stays strongly enough for an RSA. He tanked through the World Hurdle last year before weakening and he showed plenty of speed when second in a Neptune. I think a strongly run two and half miles will see the best of him and as such would have him in the JLT. The problem is there’s such a talented bunch of novice chasers around, and the JLT could easily be the strongest race of the lot.
I thought Rule The World ran well today. I had him down as a doubtful stayer over three miles and thought it very strange that they sent him for today’s race at a course with a very stiff climb to the line. It was no surprise to see him finish weakly but he travelled really well and jumped well. I’d still have him down as a big player in the JLT. The winner stayed really well and I thought Paul Carberry was good on him. He looked like being outpaced about half a mile out but Carberry didn’t panic and allowed him to get back on terms with the leaders in his own time. Two good novice chasers for Gigginstown, but I fancy the better one might have finished second. Vautour is out tomorrow and looks to face a straightforward task. I don’t think Real Steel was himself last time and Vautour will need to improve on his last performance to beat him. Hopefully he’ll bounce back to the horse he was at Navan.
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