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This is it.If I were to sell tickets to this Gig it would sell out faster than ACDC playing London cos this is the thread Guaranteed to make a profit…Yeh Baby Confidence is King and TAPK’s done the homework so its time to party..
Now we Rockin…….’Whole lotta Woman’..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMvE0yFnR0IThe Supreme hurdle 2m
This has always been a favourite race of mine and one I target months in advance.I wouldn’t put anyone off the joint 5/1 favs ‘L’ami Serge’ and ‘Douvan’,one of which has the form in the book the other a talkin horse but both will have their Ante-Post supporters clutching double figure prices.The horse I like is also Mullins trained but owned by JP Mcmanus an owner who likes a tilt at this so I’m pretty confident he’ll be trained for the race.
Alvisio Ville
is a big raw Grey but has scope in abundance,the 10/1 has gone and this fellow will be backed again.I’d like to see him go straight for a Grade 1 next like the ‘Delloitte’ at Leopardstown in February that would certainly bolster confidence.Of course ‘Douvan’ could take the same route but I dont see any similarity in profiles as ‘Douvan’ looks like a great lollopy galloper nothing like ‘Vautour’ for sure.
Selection-; Alvisio Ville 8/1
Edit,11/01/15
Douvan
,did what was expected of him at Punchestown yesterday and is now the 5/2 fav for this,short as it seems this fellow certainly has an engine and jumps well,he’s not the biggest horse in the world and has a definite dip to his backend but looks dont win ‘Supreme’ hurdles.
Edit,03/02/15
The ‘Delloitte’ on Sunday will provide us with a Cheltenham winner,I just hope its
Alvisio Ville
who does the business.trouble is its a race right bang in between the ‘Supreme/Neptune’ trip.
Edit,07/02/15
,Good to see
Alvisio Ville
stand his ground for the ‘Delloitte’,its a proper Grade 1 and this fellow is just that,still hoping he goes the ‘Supreme’ route…Better to drop back 2f than up into unknown territory of the ‘Neptune’ imo.
The Arkle 2m
No way could I take Ladbrokes 7/4 about this over-hyped ‘Un de Sceaux’ winning this,he’s Lay material.I can see him hairing off and falling early,Cheltenham will catch him out.I reckon ‘Vautour’ would be a far better proposition for this as he has everything ‘Champagne Fever’ has and more.
I rate ‘Gilgamboa’ as a serious Chaser and 12/1 appeals far more than the 10/1 about ‘Josses Hill,if ever a horse had bookies running scared its this fellow,he should be 20/1 for this.I thought ‘Vaniteaux’ was an ideal candidate for this but Nicky keeps finding one too good for him over hurdles,he could still surprise and turn up yet.My long term Arkle horse was ‘MTOY’ but injury has ruled him out of the whole campaign and he was my first Ante-Post casualty having backed him at 20/1 last year.
The horse that has really got his act together this season isVibrato Valtat
and at 20/1 looks a solid e/w proposition,he has Grade 1 form something the Fav hasn’t and he’s run around Cheltenham which is also bodes well,with ‘Ptit Zig’ looking all over a 21/2m sort the doors open for his stable companion here.No way will he go off 20/1 on the day.
Edit 03/02/15
, ‘Un des Sceaux’ sits Odds-on for this now and the race could cut up because of it,my fellow has been solidly supported into 14/1 and still looks a solid place bet,anything happens to the Fav and
Vibrato Valtat
will trade single figures.
Edit,07/02/15
,
Vibrato Valtat
keeps delivering,he ticks every box for the Arkle and trades as low as 7/1 now after cruising round Warwick today.Even money was Xmas!
Selection,; Vibrato Valtat 20/1 e/w
Festival Chase 3m
TAPK confidently put up ‘Holywell’ for this last year at 16/1 knowing he was improving faster than the handicapper.I generally look for an improving handicapper whose mark is lenient for this, ‘Mon Parrain’ was such but the man with the heavy Pen has his measure now,I also like his stable companion ‘Just a Par’ and can see both running,at 20/1 both appeal as e/w players however if there’s a horse being trained specifically for this it has to be
Our Father
,connections generally have one ready for this and at 16/1 I’m happy with this progressive Grey.
Selection,; Our Father 16/1 e/w
Champion hurdle 2m
The Professional bet for this was taking the 6/1 about
The New One
after his hard luck story last year,he’s 5/2 now and is still the horse to beat.’Faugheen’ hasn’t met anything like Twisters Charge and will set the race up for last years 3rd.I am however looking for an e/w shot who’s over-priced and that is exactly what
Rock on Ruby
is at 20/1.Had there been a 21/2m hurdle race he’d be fav but this past winner still has ability and I reckon connections will take their chance in this rather than trying the 3m world hurdle route.Common sense tells you that the trip is crucial and 3rd in this is still worth £15k more than 3rd in the World hurdle.
Edit,18/01/15
After yesterdays less than inspiring performance from ‘The New One’ many judges thought that exposed his limitations.I dont,I still rate him as the horse to be on and now that ‘Rock on Ruby’ is not declared I have taken the 7/2 about Twisters horse,he’s the one to beat imo.
Edit,03/02/15
, My e/w selection ‘Rock on ruby’ is taking the World hurdle route and certainly adds spice to the field.I have now gone in hard on ‘The New One’,his form with ‘MTOY’ makes him a serious player and in some ways will appease the defeat of Hendersons smart horse if he can win this year.Nigels horse is my strong fancy for this and certainly my day 1 banker.
Selection,;The New One 3/1
Mares hurdle 3m
I’ve said it for sometime now that
Annie Power
is the new ‘Quevega’,I thought she should have run in last years renewal of this but she certainly didn’t disgrace herself in the World hurdle.Being owned by the Ricci’s it wouldn’t surprise me to see her in the World hurdle again and the 20’s on the machine is massive for what is a 5/1 shot in reality.At even money for this now I wouldn’t touch her particularly as she is trained by jump racings equivalent to Sir Michael Stoute,a man who wouldn’t tell his own Mother.
Edit 03/02/15
, I still believe this is the wrong race for the mare,she is a serious World hurdle horse and 16/1 is massive.
Selection,; Annie Power,Evens, No Bet.
National hunt Chase 4m
3/1 about ‘Don Poli’ is a joke,he is an RSA horse so wont be running in this,20/1 about ‘The Tullow Tank’ is too as he wont turn up either.My idea of the winner is
Southfield Theatre
,he’s a tenacious stayer who will keep finding and even though he too is good enough to run in an RSA I see this a more appropriate target for Paul Nicholls horse.
Edit 03/02/15
, I see ‘Pricewise’ has gone for my selection here..In the RSA itself,he’s a serious player in either.One who also could run here though again seems too good is
Rule the world
.Oh the merry go round of Ante-Post.
Selection,; Southfield Theatre 14/1 e/w.
Novices Handicap Ch 21/2m.
The horse I’ve selected for this looks a proper 21/2m sort,he ran ‘Stellar Notion’ close at Kempton and even though the winner looked the better horse I have a sneaky feeling the placings could be reversed at Cheltenham.
Selection,; Knock House 16/1 e/w.
Novices Handicap Ch 21/2m.
The horse I’ve selected for this looks a proper 21/2m sort,he ran ‘Stellar Notion’ close at Kempton and even though the winner looked the better horse I have a sneaky feeling the placings could be reversed at Cheltenham.
Selection,; Knock House 16/1 e/w.
Do you remember Knock Hill Gord? I think it was thirty years ago he plied his trade and he stayed longer than the Old Mother In Law.
Pity he’s not running as well, as you could double them up and hope for a good lift from a lovely pair of Knockers.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Novices Handicap Ch 21/2m.
The horse I’ve selected for this looks a proper 21/2m sort,he ran ‘Stellar Notion’ close at Kempton and even though the winner looked the better horse I have a sneaky feeling the placings could be reversed at Cheltenham.
Selection,; Knock House 16/1 e/w.
Do you remember Knock Hill Gord? I think it was thirty years ago he plied his trade and he stayed longer than the Old Mother In Law.
Pity he’s not running as well, as you could double them up and hope for a good lift from a lovely pair of Knockers.
Knock hill,was it trained by John Webber Steve?
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