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It’s not funny, Neil. Some of us are genuinely concerned about this impending disaster. I for one called the government’s Swine Flu Helpline… But I had to give up as the line was crackling.
You think thats bad
I woke up this morning covered in Rashers
Its a pretty poor pandemic, the victims don’t even turn into zombies and chase you through the streets, like they should.
Anyway, the boss has been to stay away from work for a bit ..
Posted: 30 Apr 2009 14:39 Post subject:
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Friggo wrote:
It’s not funny, Neil. Some of us are genuinely concerned about this impending disaster. I for one called the government’s Swine Flu Helpline… But I had to give up as the line was crackling.You think thats bad
I woke up this morning covered in Rashers
stop hamming it up
Interesting explanation on TV by a HK virologist (and we are talking a professor of Western medicine here, not Nina Wang’s feng shui master).
He said:
– HK (and the world) should be worried, but not in the direction the HK government and press were spreading the worry.
– it is wrong of HK to treat Mexican flu with the lockdown programme used against SARS (which in HK caused 17 per cent mortality – 299 of 1755 cases).
– on WHO figures, “regular” flu has 0.6 per cent mortality.
– assume for arguments sake that the new Mexican flu will have that same 0.6 per cent mortality.
– the difference is that, unlike with regular flu, basically nobody around the world at present has any antibodies to the new Mexican flu.
– this means that come the winter flu season, many more people will suffer from Mexican flu than typically suffer from regular flu – at the low end of figures in each case, WHO warns 33 per cent of a population contracting Mexican compared to 5 per cent for regular flu. So maybe six times as many suffering.
– in HK terms, that would mean say 2m of a 7m population catching Mexican flu as opposed to 350,000 of the 7m catching normal flu.
– now apply to those 2m sufferers the “usual” flu mortality rate of 0.6 per cent – HK then is suddenly looking at 12,000 deaths from Mexican flu compared to its “normal” 2,100 from regular flu.
– resilience to deal with an increase of that kind in terms of treating / easing the way for the eventually fatal cases is not built into the HK health system, any more than it is into other health systems around the world
– its this numbers analysis that is the real societal worry with Mexican flu (and any other kind of flu which might make a similar sudden leap over to humans and for which there will be no antibodies initially in the human population.)
best regards
wit
When people die of flu is it because it has turned into pneumonia? If so, would it not be a good idea to give a lot more people the pneumonia vaccine, rather than wait until they reach the required age?
i’m not a doctor, but i understand it, those who are, are cautious about messing with the body’s immune system which is there for a reason and is far from fully understood.
its not always the virus that kills – there is strong evidence that if, by using vaccines, you kick-start the human immune system earlier than it wants to kick start itself, you run the risk of it being the resulting cytokines that do the actual damage by turning against the body not knowing that is what they’re doing.
there’s always a balance between virus and host, so vaccines tend to be prescribed for those with impaired immune systems or those who actually show symptoms.
of more immediate concern to folk in HK is that the US is now the main exporter of the new flu yet is not screening those exiting:
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Hong Kong medical experts and officials have expressed growing frustration at the lack of action by the World Health Organisation to stop the spread of swine flu from North America to Asia…City health officials fear the US will export more cases to Hong Kong during the summer holidays.
Of the 8,451 cases worldwide, 4,714 have been in the US.
Mexico, where the first infections with the new flu strain were found, is the second-worst- affected country.
The first swine flu cases in Hong Kong, the mainland, Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia and India all involved patients who flew from North America after being infected.
…….The WHO’s previous pandemic plan, published in 2005, said areas with human infection should conduct thermal scanning of travellers or measure their ear temperatures. The 2009 plan does not include such detailed suggestions.
A senior medical source involved with Hong Kong’s response plan said the action by the WHO against swine flu – officially called influenza A(H1N1) – "failed to match its level-five pandemic response".
………"Exit screening is a basic health measure to delay the spread of the virus … as long as [the WHO] says a pandemic is likely, it should act according to that response level."
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Given that the symptoms of this outbreak of swine flu seem generally mild, perhaps due to its fortuitous occurence ‘out of season’ in the northern hemisphere, then isn’t there a case for allowing it to run its natural course through the population without interference in the form of antivirals, movement restrictions and isolation of infected individuals?
Hence allowing at least some immunity to develop naturally in order to help combat the postulated return of a more virulent type ‘in season’ during autumn and winter.
Admittedly, I’m not at all clear as to how treatment with antivirals during the early stages of the illness affects the body’s natural immune response to the virus viz whether immunity is developed anyway, regardless of treatment with antivirals.
The immune system is complex; I have quite a few friends who suffer from M.E. one of whom sadly died a few months ago.I’ve always thought that it is caused by the immune system over reacting to a virus and the body almost turning on itself. I noticed, when my daughter had german measles as a child, that the illness itself didn’t make her particularly ill, but that a couple of weeks after she had recovered she became very tired and lethargic for several days, much worse than when she actually had the virus. When my son then had german measles I watched out for the same thing happening, and it did. I supposed that it was due to their immune systems reacting to what had happened to them in some way.
I do have concerns about these anti-virals and the long term implications of over medication.
We are now beginning to pay the price of overuse of antibiotics with an increase of super-bugs which are becoming more and more resistant to antibiotics.
I can see the same happening with virus’s if we are not careful.
When it comes to colds and ‘flu I am very much in the “let nature take its course” camp.
I am very much with Drone on this one – let the current outbreak run its course naturally, thus building up a natural resistance in the population.
Also seeing some of the “dramatic” behind window, phone interviews with some of the “sufferers” I remain to be convinced it actually is ‘flu anyway – more like a common cold.
From the two or three occasions I have had ‘flu in my life, I know damned well if I really did have ‘flu the only response I would give to a potential interviewer would be of the Ryan Moore variety.
I said to a friend of mine who teaches science that I thought it would be better for everyone to just get swine flu now, but she said that the more people catch it the more it will mutate and the stronger it will get; At least we can be comforted by the thought that it isn’t in the interest of a virus to completely wipe out it’s host, although, I suppose it could just move on to another one . Not really the most powerful creatures on the planet, are we?
Seems to have well and truly arrived in the East Midlands now. I worked with someone the other day who came down with it the following morning, so feeling a bit concerned [not so much about catching it, but passing it on to people].
Quite so, according to the papers last week Cherie Blair has got it.
It makes you wonder what the W.H.O. is spending all that money on, trying to contain a flu virus when they would be just as well letting it run it’s course, because it will anyway.
I think it will kill a lot of people over the winter unfortunately.
They keep saying on the telly that everyone who has died from this had under-lying health problems. This clearly isn’t true does anyone know or hazard a guess as to why they would say this?
My sister was talking too her local nurse, in her area they have hardly any, in parts of leeds its rampant.
At work its begining too eat its way through the staff.
One thing the media forget it that planning has taken place, but also different areas need different approaches depending on how rampant the disease is, but also the age and general health of the suspected people are.
It is not the mad form of rabies so will people please bloody relax….
They keep saying on the telly that everyone who has died from this had under-lying health problems. This clearly isn’t true does anyone know or hazard a guess as to why they would say this?
Why wouldn’t it be true? Couldn’t it just be that the severity of the threat posed by swine flue is being seriously overblown by the press?
You’ll have to excuse my ignorance here but I’d like to know how exactly can you die of flu?
As I understand death apart from the more obvious things like getting your head cut off – death is caused by organ(s) failure – either directly as in blocked arteries stopping the heart from working or indirectly as in blood poisoning damaging the liver – as examples, clearly there are many more.
So what does this flu do?
Anyhow it’s all getting a bit serious for my liking.
I was wondering how long it take until someone I know came down with it….
Just a few hours ago I was told my sister and my mothers friend both have it. They were both diagnosed over the phone – the telling symptoms being a very bad chest and numbness of the fingers and toes. My sister went to the Oasis concert last week and it’s most likely that she picked it up there. She’s been told that the worst of it is over and says she’s had much worse symptoms before. My only worry is that she’s asthmatic, but there’s been no complications at all (touch wood).
It’s very much among us.
I’m probably repeating myself here, but I know someone whose tongue started to swell to the point that she was concerned for her breathing, so this flu doesn’t seem to have ‘normal’ flu type symptoms. I also know of people going back to work after a week when I feel that it probably takes a further week to recover properly. Last week it was something that I was just reading about in the papers to something that was all around me. I do wonder if we’ve become a bit complacent over the years about basic hygiene in shops and public buildings, because of antibiotics and thinking that whatever we catch is instantly treatable. I wish i knew for certain what the incubation period is; seems to vary between 2-10 days. What is strange is that I’ve been talking to quite a few people who say that they have a mild sore throat and a cough, and we were wondering if a lot of us are actually fighting off the virus. Makes you realise what life was like prior to penicillin. I’m not losing sleep over it, but I’m certainly concerned, and as I work for a health centre I do want to find out as much as I can. Hope your sister and your mum’s friend are on the mend.
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