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It’s a fair point that you wouldn’t have got excited about sire Sea The Stars just beating Youmzain a couple of lengths and yes that doesn’t tell the whole story plus Sea The Stars put up some quality performances on the numbers.
But that said, Baaeed’s just become the TWELFTH horse to beat OR 114 Modern Games. Winning margin a length and three quarters and he needed three reminders to get on top.
Media hype way OTT.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Part of the over hype is probably because he is the world’s highest rated horse that hasn’t had that big winning performance that the public can latch onto….or the wow factor as they call it.
Hopefully the one good thing about the Juddmonte is that he will be facing higher rated horses than he has been beating over a mile but again he could very well win that race by one or two lengths and still not have that wow factor.
It did make me chuckle some of the ITV big up comments (which they are still doing now) and the one in particular was comparing Baaeed’s odds of 1-6 being shorter than Frankel’s 8-13 when he landed his first Sussex Stakes, conveniently leaving out that Frankel was 1-20 when he won it (like Baaeed) as 4yr old.
Baaeed’s problem from their standpoint is the he (just like his dad) is never going to give them that wide margin demolition job performance that they need to easily promote him so they have to keep hitting us all over the head about how good he is by stretching the truth to fit their narrative.
“One in particular was comparing Baaeed’s odds of 1-6 being shorter than Frankel’s 8-13 when he landed his first Sussex Stakes, conveniently leaving out that Frankel was 1-20 when he won it (like Baaeed) as 4yr old.”
And Frankel had to take on Canford Cliffs in his first Sussex Stakes.
Canford Cliffs had an OR of 127 and would have had every chance against Baaeed in a match.
I hope Mishriff goes to York again.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"There’s nothing in his form to justify a 128 rating they’ve just decided this season that Real World is a 123 horse based on him looking at Baaeed’s backside a couple of times from a distance. Laughably bad handicapping. People will tell me oh but he gets there cruising, but just because a horse gets there cruising doesn’t mean they’re going to romp home by 10 lengths when he’s asked for more, plenty of them won’t give anything more – Battaash would be a good example he’d only ever win on the bridle and when it got ugly he caved in. Anyway onto York.
The best piece of form baaeed has is beating Palace pier in the QE2
He’s the only proper top notch horse baaeed has beaten
Hopefully this was the last time we see alcohol free over further than 7f
Shed be very well suited by the prix maurice de gheest and foret
Any horse (or most horses) only run to their very best rating no more than a few times in their career.
Sussex was not one of Baaeed’s best performances, however he did all that connections must have wanted today.In the horse’s last mile race before going up to 1m2f:
Settled well and yet also travelled well.
Instead of showing too much speed instead needed to be asked for his turn of foot.
Had he been asked earlier probably would’ve won by further, but that would’ve meant a harder race to get over before York.All of those things make it more likely Baaeed will stay 1m2f next time out.
Value Is Everything“The best piece of form baaeed has is beating Palace pier in the QE2. He’s the only proper top notch horse baaeed has beaten”
Fair comment – there are various ways of assessing horses and, beyond universal ratings, the individual actual quality of what they’ve beaten is a measure I also respect.
I raised an eyebrow at Real World’s elevated OR after the Queen Anne, though you could argue those in behind stood it up if assumed to have run to their peaks.
But for me the bottom line is Baaeed has been slightly less impressive with each successive run this year.
Crowley came back and said he’s never the sort to win by far.
Crowley obviously forgot he won a Group 3 by six and a half on Baaeed last year.
Baaeed hosed up at Newbury, was comfortable but less authoritative against the same horse at Ascot and got three smacks to beat the runner up (lower OR than Real World) today.
York has done for better horses than Baaeed and I think there may be a value bet against him come August.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Looking forward to modern games now being rated 122 or something after this
Handicapper may even decide he’s better than vadeni
It’s horribly plausible….
“Alcohol Free ran to her 119, so 125 Modern Games and 128 Baaeed. In fact, rounding up, 126 Modern Games and a new career best 130 Baaeed! Ok, it means raising the Japanese horse a STONE, and Angel Bleu 7lb on ground that clearly didn’t suit, Chindit up 6lb and Order Of Australia the only also ran who didn’t run a career best, but so what?”
Can’t wait for Tuesday tbh.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"When Baaeed beat Palace Pier in the QEII it was only by a neck. Lady Bowthorpe in third only beaten a total of 1 1/2 lengths.
Yes Palace Pier is a better racehorse than Real World and Lady Bowthorpe better than Chindit, but Baaeed beat Real World a lot further, 3 1/2 lengths in the Lockinge. Chindit in third would not exactly be expected to win a Group 1, but he was beaten 5 lengths. In the QEII Baaeed only beat the OR 110 rated 100/1 shot Njord by 5 1/2. Chindit is a better horse than Njord.
Therefore – despite the race being less competative, once distances beaten are taken into account – imo Baaeed’s Lockinge performance deserves to be rated better than his QEII rating.
Real World is under-estimated by some. If it was not for Baaeed he’d be a two time Group 1 winner unbeaten on turf. In France last year Real World beat The Revernant a short neck at level weights. Timeform still rate Real World and The Revernant the same on 125. ie Had the french horse run in the Lockinge he’d have been expected to finish alongside Real World (beaten 3 1/2 lengths). The Revernant finished 4th in the QEII, but beaten a total of 2 1/2 lengths by Baaeed.
There is plenty of room to fit better horses between Chindit and Baaeed, or indeed Real World and Baaeed. If wanting to combine the form of QEII and Lockinge: ie Had Palace Pier, Lady Bowthorpe and The Revernant run in the Lockinge… On form imo Palace Pier and Lady Bowthorpe would again finish second and third -only beaten a little further this time. With Real World still 3 1/2 behind Baaeed only this time in 4th, just a short neck in front of The Revernant in 5th. Mother Earth 6th and Chindit still beaten 5 lengths but now only 7th.
Value Is EverythingWhat do people want? Blood?!! Modern Games is unbeaten over a mile, a classic winner and receiving weight. Reckon we will see better from him. We all know about Alcohol Free. I can’t believe people are crabbing this form. Obviously the Frankel comparisons are hype but Baaeed will never attract high ratings because of his racing style. To be considered a real great he needs to win something like the Breeders’ Cup Mile or Dubai World Cup, and sounds like that won’t happen but he’s still a champion.
I think what people are talking about Tonge is ratings and they are not necessarily upped for winning a Breeders Cup or Dubai World Cup. But you’ve got a good point about the performance not being as bad a some believe. Baaeed possibly running to around 123 or 124. Modern Games ran below form in the French Derby over further and softer ground. But the last time he’d been seen at a mile and on a firmer surface (forget the official going in France, times mean it had to be firmish) in the French Guineas he showed improvement. So it would not be a surprise if that improvement continued by around 5 or 6 lbs (from 114 to around 119 or 120) yesterday. Alcohol Free was a bit below form after coming back in trip and not getting the clearest of runs through. However, if Modern Games has run to 119 or 120 then fourth, fifth and sixth ran at least fairly good races considering their official ratings too.
Value Is Everything“Baaeed will never attract high ratings because of his racing style.”
I would like to agree, Tonge, but for me the form-book does not support this assertion Crowley made yesterday.
Baaeed won a Group 3 last year by six and a half lengths, he also won the Lockinge in May by over three easily.
For me, he’s been a bit less impressive each run this year, despite winning.
I can accept Modern Games having improved a bit, but looking at the rest I can’t rate Baaeed over 123 on this particular run.
I think Baaeed will stay 1m2f fine, but I also think a peak Mishriff would give him plenty of problems at York.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“But you’ve got a good point about the performance not being as bad a some believe.”
No one has suggested the performance was “bad”. The comments were querying the hyperbole from Messrs Holt and Luck and headlines describing the performance as “brilliant”.
It was a good performance but I cannot get excited about a 1/6 chance doing no more than the betting suggested he was entitled to do. I had much the same feeling after Frankel won his second Sussex Stakes, when we learned nothing we did not already know about him.
As with Frankel, his next run (assuming he does go to York) will be much more interesting.
“What do people want? Blood?!!”
Just half a pint for me, please.
Horse Racing is a tough sport to keep winning at the top level. Plenty can go wrong. Baaeed is a quality beast
Unfortunately the hyperbole is a little too much, sick bucket stuff. Not just with Baaeed either, it seems to find its way out every season with one horse or another, usually starting off with the guineas favourite. If only they could get Jermaine Jenas to spill it out on Twitter then the racecourses will be queued to the brim for miles outside the turnstiles with new racegoers.
Never mind at least the Racing League starts soon. Ed Chamberlain will be lording that up like the start of the Premier League or Ashes series no doubtBlackbeard to conquer the World
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