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January 21, 2017 at 00:25 #1282981
Most needlessly overanalysed race of the festival. Moon Racer wins. End of thread
January 21, 2017 at 11:58 #1283093Personally think Elgin has been a tad flattered mainly because of Jenkins poor showing and I think neon wolf will go close tomorrow
a real momentum behind neon wolf to win today.. has there been any word of missing Cheltenham though? seems quite big on oddschecker for the supreme
edit, 50-1 on sportsbook at the moment which I ventured a tenner on
January 21, 2017 at 12:04 #1283097Has to be a slight concern than Neon Wolf was also declared over 2m 5f at Ascot. Not quick enough?
January 21, 2017 at 12:35 #1283107Has to be a slight concern than Neon Wolf was also declared over 2m 5f at Ascot. Not quick enough?
thanks zarkava, maybe a step up in trip required even if it pulls through today
January 21, 2017 at 14:24 #1283133Neon Wolf blows Supreme and Neptune market wide open. Top notch animal. Very impressed today
January 21, 2017 at 14:35 #1283134The form of Elgin on display (kind of) up at Kelso today. Think he’s potentially over-priced at 25s. Beat a nice sort of Malcolm Jefferson’s on Fighting Fifth Day at Newcastle.
I looked at his races last week but although he got the job done there wasn’t enough spark to persuade me to back him. Would like to see him do something on a stiffer track. Have a feeling even in what looks a poor year he is candidate for sixth or seventh and there is also a fair possibility he could skip Cheltenham for easier pickings at Aintree.
Looked to have his chance turning in but completely outstayed. Doubt he will be going to Cheltenham.
I wouldn’t get too carried away with the winner who has outstayed (he was being niggled entering the straight) what was probably an ordinary field. It will be a completely different ball game should he go to the Festival on what is likely to be a much quicker surface.
January 21, 2017 at 14:42 #1283138Stilvi, Neon Wolf had way too much speed for them. Stamina came in to it, but he was simply different class from those – still green (that ‘niggling’ from Fehily I read as just keeping his mind on the job after that sharp turn in). Fine jumper and a superb finishing attitude given he was well clear.
His pace and jumping would make him a player in The Supreme although the Neptune would also suit nicely. A future star.
January 21, 2017 at 16:25 #1283171Stilvi, Neon Wolf had way too much speed for them. Stamina came in to it, but he was simply different class from those – still green (that ‘niggling’ from Fehily I read as just keeping his mind on the job after that sharp turn in). Fine jumper and a superb finishing attitude given he was well clear.
His pace and jumping would make him a player in The Supreme although the Neptune would also suit nicely. A future star.
These days Haydock is a speed test but clearly not under today’s conditions. If Neon Wolf had so much speed why ride him in that manner? Everyone knows the standard Fehily ride is to drop a horse in. He was ridden to make the most of his stamina and it worked. I would be very, very surprised if he goes anywhere near a Supreme. I suppose they might even miss Cheltenham and go for one of the other Festivals.
January 21, 2017 at 19:01 #1283209It depends on the ground, i suppose, but Neon Wolf should be going to the Neptune. He impressed with his jumping in the home straight, suggesting he had plenty left.
January 22, 2017 at 19:58 #1283359Neon Wolf wouldn’t run unless was as soft as the ground yesterday at Haydock; wouldn’t back him unless you’re tempted with the 10/1 NRNB with SkyBet.
January 23, 2017 at 14:38 #1283425Consul De Thaix looks the horse for me at a price (taken 90’s – still available at 46’s)
Form behind Brain Power is solid. I was impressed in how he recovered from an early error to pass all and close BP down to half a length at Sandown. His run at Ascot behind Brain Power was similarly impressive, passing all but BP (inc Modus and Golden Spear who have both franked form). He seems to find an awful lot in the engine under pressure and i think ridden more prominently would see him fly up the hill. Entitled to improve, has decent Cheltenham experience having run in the Triumph last year and I can see him going off at 8/10’s after a Betfair Hurdle win.
As Zark points out – Favourite for the Betfair Hurdle. Darlan, MTOY, GMOOH all attempted the double for JP
January 23, 2017 at 18:42 #1283476This year is the first year that I have no idea what I am going to bet in the supreme novices!!
I don’t know why but I just haven’t seen anything or spotted anything that says bet me! Unless charli parcs goes here!I’m still half expecting something to pop up in the next few weeks but I am
Not holding my breathe!At this rate I will end up on moon racer purely because he has the best form and I will get a run for my money but if MR did win a his I feel it is a fairly weak supreme this year. But we were due one since we have been blessed with superstars for the last 5+ Years
January 23, 2017 at 19:43 #1283483Hi Jas, The Supreme has been dominated by the Mullins/Ricci combo over the last few years. Min did get turned over last year, much to the disgust of my 25/1 antipost ticket from the previous August. This year,the Mullins battalions have hit the skids. Senewalk was a much talked about horse pre season, but that fluffed his lines in November and has since been put away after a breathing op. So where do we look for the winner? I can see the Moon Racer angle (form in the book). If Cilaos Emery was any good,Willie would of run him in the Moscow Flyer. The same applies to Chateau Conti. Neon Wolf runs in the neptune (if he runs at all). Charli Parks and Defi du suell both run in the Triumph. Airlie Beach goes for the mares novice. Finians Oscar goes for the Neptune.Saturnas wants a trip and Any Second Now probably wont turn up. Other posters have nailed their colours to one’s at bigger prices (Jenkins,Capitaine,Consul de thaix and High Bridge). 2 horses i’ve left out are Crack Mome and Melon (suprise suprise,they’re my selections). Mullins turned to Crack Mome to represent him in the Moscow Flyer which is the route he’s taken for his previous Supreme winners.Going off at 4/9f, Crack Mome fluffed his lines with 2 bad mistakes at crucial times. Ruby later said that he hated the ground and would be a different prospect on better ground. The other one is Melon. He’s got an entry on Thursday and could be anything. Over the last few days,the bookies have been slicing the odds amid good reports from the yard. I suggest backing both at 16’s and 10’s respectively with Sky Bet NRNB. Good Luck
January 24, 2017 at 11:58 #1283561I see Pricewise has tipped up Charli Parcs. Is this pure guesswork or is there some sort of steer from Frank Berry & Co? Does this mean Any Second Now and Defi De Seuil are going elsewhere?
January 24, 2017 at 12:09 #1283564The vibes from the trainer after Any Second Now won the other day were that he won’t be running here
Blackbeard to conquer the World
January 24, 2017 at 12:50 #1283573It doesn’t sound like JP to make actual decisions two months advance. It was essentially a speed test around Punchestown and I would have thought the greater stamina test at Cheltenham would be a big plus. Every chance he would have the potential to improve at least as much as any other likely entry.
January 24, 2017 at 18:21 #1283614I see Pricewise has tipped up Charli Parcs. Is this pure guesswork or is there some sort of steer from Frank Berry & Co? Does this mean Any Second Now and Defi De Seuil are going elsewhere?
After their respective last wins both the trainer of Defi De Seuil(Hobbs) and Charlie Parcs (Henderson) nominated the juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday as their preferred next target and, interestingly, both in a way that sounded like a plea to JP/Berry to let them run there.
If Defi wins that battle (also the better horse imho) and gets to run at Prestbury on Saturday then he should be backed for the Triumph immediately (before Saturday also). Henderson in his pitch to JP (via the medium of RUK) was stating that they have to run here to see if he likes Cheltenham. So if DDS is nominated for Saturday instead, I think it is pretty much certain he will return for the Triumph.
Charlie Parcs might then go Supreme and maybe that is what Tom Segal has factored. Supreme looks very open, as all acknowledge.
Moon Racer looks solid but I hate betting Pipe favourites (shudders)
Cilaos Emery just looks upright and not nearly enough on the forehand for a Supreme (quick) horse, reminds me of an embryo Don Poli in looks.
Neon Wolf surely targets the Neptune as should Finian’s Oscar (my hope there) and the rest are committed elsewhere or unknown.
Jenkins is one I haven’t lost faith in for the Festival opener (only one bad run and that had to be physical) as his Punchestown performance was so taking and ended up winning by miles at Newbury on hurdles debut. The reasonable point about his jumping must be overcome but he is in the right hands to improve that attribute. Looks a bang 2 miler also.
If he doesn’t run again before Cheltenham his price should remain decent and I sense he will be my Supreme bet. -
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