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I love stuff like that .
" It might win a Gold Cup in three years time but i can’t see it winning next week "
The front two in the betting work out at below even money if you back them both, the last favourite to win this race was Brave Inca 10 years ago. I have a feeling that Josses Hill will run a big race
I have just spent the day on this race and picked the contenders apart one at a time. If you are a glutton for punishment, check out my in-depth blog on the race.
http://raginggibberish.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/supreme-novices-hurdle.html
(edited incorrect link)
Basically though, I believe that the main Irish contenders are much of a muchness. Wicklow Brave and Vautour are closely matched on collateral form and Wicklow Brave hardly sets a daunting standard, let’s face it.
I do hate to begin the meeting by jumping on the favourite, but all of this talk about Irving being a bridle horse seems like nonsense. He needed more than 1m 4f on the flat and was actually ridden very aggressively to beat Kasbah Bliss at Fontainebleu. If you watch that race, you’ll see what a giver he is off the bit. For a horse with such strong stamina to show great speed over hurdles is really impressive. I think he has the perfect combination of attributes.
I am also on Gilgamboa and Vaniteux each-way. Coming into this race via a win in a hot handicap is a tried-and-tested path to good results for JP (see Get Me Out Of Here and My Tent Or Yours). The Boylesports Hurdle looked much stronger than the Betfair Hurdle and Gilgamboa produced a far superior run at the weights than Splash Of Ginge, so he has to be right up there.
As for Vaniteux, his win over Vibrato Valtat looks brilliant in hindsight. Tiqris was in the process of franking that form until being brought down at the weekend, while Vibrato Valtat might enhance it even further in the Imperial Cup. Stamina is one of Vaniteux’s best assets and he looked much more assured in the jumping stakes at Doncaster.
So it’s:
Irving
to win
Gilgamboa
each-way
Vaniteux
each-way
Thanks, I appreciate it when people go to this effort as I havent been following the novices that much. At current prices, I have gotten stuck into Vaniteux. I have to say that Gilgamboa at 12s is poor value current IMO. He may be improving rapidly but he might have to find a stone or more to figure in this.
SHL
Yes, interesting your take on Irving, Sir Harry. Pity about the price, unless it goes out. I may do it as the first in a straight forecast with Ginge – who I forgot to mention is out of a half- sister to none other than See More Business!
That’s nice analysis on your blog, John – and you are indeed a young fella!
I’ve seen a few comments now on the decline of Choc and haven’t watched him closely enough to debate it. But I’d sooner give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
On to Irving. It’s often the tiny factors that tell the big story with good horses, and I’ve rarely seen a horse jump the last as he did last time out.
He half stepped at it, saw he was wrong, but rather than put down as 99% of horses would, he stretched in mid-air, and bent his back finding the extra propulsion from somewhere to make a clean jump. He must have had a ton left in the tank to do that.
He’s a short price now, right enough, but PP’s offer of cash back if your horse is 2nd, 3rd or 4th makes him an attractive bet despite the number of hotpots who’ve been sunk here
Banking on Irving winning this, but at a bigger price I think Sgt Reckless could well run into a place.
I’d not really gone through this race in any depth until today, and I’m not going for the top two, as at the skinny prices I’m not sure they are value.
Irving is the most likely winner for sure, but simply by looking back over the years, this is a bit of an elephants graveyard for favourites, so I’m not going in at 11/4.
Vautour is a very decent horse also, his form looks solid but the one question I would have about him is the likely ground. It may well be that he handles good ground, which it looks like being, and hoses up here, but there has to be a question mark as all his form is on heavy. For that reason I’m leaving him too, at an equally skinny 7/2.
If you take The Liquidator’s last run out, he would be one of the favourites for this. His previous two wins at Carlisle and Cheltenham look very decent form. The fact he has won at Cheltenham, and run very well in last year’s festival bumper, indicate he likes it there, and that is a big bonus when it comes to a helter skelter race like the Supreme Novices. The other positive factor here is that Pipe’s horses are in very rude form at the moment, he did me a big favour with Baltimore Rock at the weekend.
There are a few shrewdies on here that have got on at bigger prices, well done to them, but I still think that 20/1 is a very decent bet, especially if you place it with Paddy Power.
Nearly there, just one more sleep away, I can’t wait.
Good luck guys.
Def agree with you on The Liquidator, looking back at his Chlet win and last yrs Bumper looks massively overpriced @ 20s. Plus some firms paying 1/4 for 4 places. Value bet of the race.
Very few winners at 3/1 or shorter, so what happens? Irving and Vautour both drift out to 7/2 (best available) !! Hahaha are the bookies playing with us?
The SPs of the previous 6 winners were 5/1, 10/1, 10/1, 12/1, 12/1 + 17/2. Two horses that have shortened noticeably over the last week are Gilgamboa + Vaniteux both 33’s into 12’s (best available).
Purely because of the jockey I’m going for Vaniteux.
Good luck with your bets.
As someone on The Liquidator at 20s and Garde La Victoire at 33s, just happy to get a run for my money!
Duh nuh nuh nuh nee nuh nuhhhh nuh nuh.
Diddle diddle diddle diddle diddle diddle diddle diddle.
Duh duh duh duh!
And that (other than I think Wicklow Brave also has a massive chance) is all I am going to say on the matter.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I can’t be having The Liquidator. His Cheltenham win was very poor, with Sea Lord never looking at all happy and Lac Fontana miles below form.
He cocked his jaw and looked less than keen on his most recent start. David Pipe says there was a reason for that, but you just need to look at his dam Alikat to have some worries about his resolution. 20-1 hardly screams value to me.
Horses who ran well in the Bumper the previous year have a very appealing record in this, in recent years. So i have to be on The Liquidator. I think his odds are a steal.
And of course i have to stay loyal to one of my new best friends; Splash of Ginge
Hoping for a big priced opener to proceedings tomorrow!Pipe did say he was struggling to get The Liquidator to the Festival, so whether he’s fully fit is questionable. Same with Josses Hill for Henderson. Suspect the Pipe horse needs to make all which won’t be easy in this field.
My 100% Book:
23% Vatour 100/30
20% Irving 4/1
15% Wicklow Brave 11/2
9% Vaniteux 10/1
7.25% Valseur Lido 13/15% Gilgamboa 20/1
4.75% Josses Hill 20/13.75% Garde La Victoire 25/1
2.2% Wilde Blue Yonder 40/1
2.2% The Liquidator 40/1
2.2% Western Boy 40/1
1.5% Three Kingdoms 66/1
1.5% Splash Of Ginge 66/1
1.5% Un Ace 66/1
0.75% Sgt Reckless 132/1
0.25 Germany Calling 400/1
0.1% Sky Khan 1000/1
0.05% Fantasy King 2000/1Agree with JJM about
Garde La Victoire
, 41/1 on the machine looks good value back on a sounder surface.
Wicklow Brave
may have more to offer on this ground too given his pedigree and speed. Won listed race last time out, beating subsequent Grade 2 winner by 8 3/4 lengths. Can understand Ruby going for
Vatour
, who he feels has the blend of stamina and pace needed for a Supreme (saved on him @ 4/1). However, on form shouldnt be as much between the Mullins horses as betting suggests.
Valseur Lido
(18/1) won his two hurdle starts in a cantre, should run well at attractive odds if inexperience does not count against him (yet to come under pressure).
Vaniteux
(saver 12/1) Beat Portway Flyer 12 lengths with any amount in hand. Jumping better than previously and travelled effortlessly, suggesting will be effective back in trip. Stable companion
Josses Hill
arguably has both better form and 2 mile form at that. So if home work has led BG to pick Vaniteux is a good sign – though Tinkler’s mount has been under a cloud recently.
Irving
has an obvious chance if jumping better than at Kempton and a much bigger field to contend with here.
Value Is EverythingIrving is the most likely winner for sure, but simply by looking back over the years, this is a bit of an elephants graveyard for favourites, so I’m not going in at 11/4.
A race like this is bound to be bad for favs BigG. If you look at my percentages (above) and add up all the outsiders (5% and less)… their combined percentage comes to greater chance of winning than the horse I make favourite.
Value Is Everything
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