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Really? what 4 are they? Curious to know how you rule out the remaining contenders?
For me i have doubts about most but not too many conclusive reasons to rule out which is why this is so dangerous.
Darlan – Hasn’t won a race impressively and his last run he fell. Negative yet he has come in for ludicrous support on the ASSUMPTION he would have won or gone close to Zarkanadar. Hugely risky at 9-2 cannot be supported but who knows? can’t be ruled out but wouldn’t touch the odds.
Galileos Choice – weld factor, classy on flat, hurdled well in small fields. Yet to encounter a large field over jumps. Can’t be ruled out. 6-1 is short.
Steps to Freedom – Not run for a while is a negative. Won at course and has done nothing wrong. I want to take him on but accept he can’t wholely be ruled out.
Cinders and Ashes – Hurdles well, northern form that might not stand up to much however he looks the part so far. Yet to really be tested, concerned he was put in place in bumpers. Too short but can’t say he won’t win.
Midnight Game – will like the ground, improving, concerned he was smashed by galileos choice. Won a weaker race latest when dylan got to front too early, flattered. Can’t rule out.
Trifolium – Could be smart, taking win last time. Concerned that it took him a while to show his form. Might be flattered by last race. Shrewd Yard. Fair price – can’t rule out.
Tetlami – Not ran since christmas, kempton form is solid enough, suspect he might not be up to it personally. Like him though and wouldn’t want to rule him out certainty. Fair price.
Colour Squadron – IMO the best of the brits, fell last time, huge neg. hangs but plenty of horses to get cover to the left if johnson needs. Would be right up there if kept stright at sandown. Can’t rule out.
Montbazon – have to like his latest win and he will be close to colour squad. Neither will be total champs at 2m so if the irish don’t beat them i will put this as a weak renewal. Can’t rule out.
I just can’t happily write any off. I wouldn’t want to be on some of them personally but wouldn’t then be shocked if they won.
For me if there is a future champion hurdler in there they will win, can i see a future champion hurdler? maybe in galileos or trifolium. They would be the two i’d most like to be on.
I agree with J17, think it is wide open and dangerous to rule out any whereas the two previous years only had 4 who could win.
Steps to Freedom
Really? what 4 are they? Curious to know how you rule out the remaining contenders?
For me i have doubts about most but not too many conclusive reasons to rule out which is why this is so dangerous.
Darlan – Hasn’t won a race impressively and his last run he fell. Negative yet he has come in for ludicrous support on the ASSUMPTION he would have won or gone close to Zarkanadar. Hugely risky at 9-2 cannot be supported but who knows? can’t be ruled out but wouldn’t touch the odds.
Galileos Choice – weld factor, classy on flat, hurdled well in small fields. Yet to encounter a large field over jumps. Can’t be ruled out. 6-1 is short.
Steps to Freedom – Not run for a while is a negative. Won at course and has done nothing wrong. I want to take him on but accept he can’t wholely be ruled out.
Cinders and Ashes – Hurdles well, northern form that might not stand up to much however he looks the part so far. Yet to really be tested, concerned he was put in place in bumpers. Too short but can’t say he won’t win.
Midnight Game – will like the ground, improving, concerned he was smashed by galileos choice. Won a weaker race latest when dylan got to front too early, flattered. Can’t rule out.
Trifolium – Could be smart, taking win last time. Concerned that it took him a while to show his form. Might be flattered by last race. Shrewd Yard. Fair price – can’t rule out.
Tetlami – Not ran since christmas, kempton form is solid enough, suspect he might not be up to it personally. Like him though and wouldn’t want to rule him out certainty. Fair price.
Colour Squadron – IMO the best of the brits, fell last time, huge neg. hangs but plenty of horses to get cover to the left if johnson needs. Would be right up there if kept stright at sandown. Can’t rule out.
Montbazon – have to like his latest win and he will be close to colour squad. Neither will be total champs at 2m so if the irish don’t beat them i will put this as a weak renewal. Can’t rule out.
I just can’t happily write any off. I wouldn’t want to be on some of them personally but wouldn’t then be shocked if they won.
For me if there is a future champion hurdler in there they will win, can i see a future champion hurdler? maybe in galileos or trifolium. They would be the two i’d most like to be on.
I agree with J17, think it is wide open and dangerous to rule out any whereas the two previous years only had 4 who could win.
Steps to Freedom
Your approach is different to mine though. Not ruling out horses because they have a positive or two. I rule those out as negatives appear to outweigh them
Cinders – never won on Good ground. Weakened up the hill last run here and yet i haven’t seen it mentioned as a doubt unlike Sprinter Sacre. Ruled out.Steps To Freedom – off too long. A neck win over Prospect Wells is naff form. Ruled out.
Tetlami – Big hoofed animal that would prefer softer going and has beaten little and connections convinced it’s not as talented as Darlan. Ruled out.
Trifolium – Not good enough, should find the ground too quick. Ruled out.
I shall be looking for pre race positives for Midnight Game – the one horse in the field i think could improve into the ‘ special ‘ category.
Montbazon likely top four and beat Colour SquadronI think my approach is actually probably very similar. Just realised I don’t want to back a few just by reading what i wrote.
Maybe it isn’t as open as I thought. I would probably say for me 4 as well. Galileos, Tetlami, Trifolium and Midnight Game. Rudely didn’t mention Dylan Ross he has to be respected at the current prices. I’ll avoid the rest. Trifolium I think i might cross off because of his slow coming to form and i just think he might e flattered by the last race, it wasn’t a great race imo.
I find nearly all the candidates have concerns about them.
Darlan – Strong travelling sort who as of yet hasn’t shown anything of it. Disappointed at Cheltenham, overated based on Taunton run (Beat disappointing Jump city by a neck on the bridle, not really impressive). Travelling well when taking hard fall in Betfair. Difficult to know where he would have finished. All in all i wouldn’t touch him. Think he’s flattered somewhat by his racing style and at the prices i wouldn’t touch him.
Steps To Freedom – Hurdles form is worth very little. Through Prospect Wells, Ericht, All the Aces and Sailors Worn he has a significant bit to find. Hype stems from bumper performance at Aintree. Will travel well, but what will he find? Again for me, his form has little substance and i couldn’t back him.
Galileo’s Choice – Good flat horse (Not that it means a great deal) who has solid Hurdles form but his run last time out has made his price very unappealing. At the top of the market on hype rather than form. I don’t particularly like him for this, but you can’t rule him out.
Cinders and Ashes – On bumper form is behind several of these. Hurdles form not worth a great deal. Nice sort who trainer loves, but ground/form and ability are all questionable for me. I personally don’t think he’s good enough
Montbazon – Good bumper horse, who is closely tied with Colour Squadrom. Form is very solid, but perhaps question marks about maximum ability exist. Not the best jumper IMO. I think he’s EW banker material, but i do concede he may find one too good.
Mdnight Game – Worked poorly recently, but trainer likes him alot. Ok form, but expected improvement on ground. Relatively unknown quantity and itneresting, but you wouldn’t want to take too short a price.
Trifolium – All form on soft ground and beat by So Young. I cannot have him at all.
Colour Suadrom – Close ties with Montbazon. Excellent EW bet here. Should be similar price to Montbazon, will travel well, uirky individual but has good known ability.
Tetlami – Form is solid, but i don’t thik he’s truely been tested yet. They say on work he isn’t close to Darlan, but on the track, he has the much better form IMO. I like at the prices.
There are a few others who are liked by their trainers, but i can’t see any others being realistically good enough.
For me, it’s about price. All the candidates have concerns and i believe the most solid form line horses are actually the bigger prices. I’d take on the front 3/4 in the bettng here.
King reports MONTBAZON to be in rude health, about time we had a positive bulletin about one of his horses!
Well I suppose if the trainer can’t be confident about one of his horses no one else will be! He was my very original selection along with the now NR CAG, have since got on the bandwagon with Darlan at 12s and Galileos Choice at 10s, and a speculative punt on Divapour.
Yea, 2 significant jockey bookings. Davey said in a preview night that he really liked Midnight Game, but would switch to Trifolium if MGs work didnt improve significantly (WM reported that he did a bad piece of work last week).
Ruby plumps for Prospect Wells. What does this tell us. A: PW is working like a goodun at home or B: Mullins is sending dirt over for this race.
I’d be siding with the latter.
Yea, 2 significant jockey bookings. Davey said in a preview night that he really liked Midnight Game, but would switch to Trifolium if MGs work didnt improve significantly (WM reported that he did a bad piece of work last week).
Ruby plumps for Prospect Wells. What does this tell us. A: PW is working like a goodun at home or B: Mullins is sending dirt over for this race.
I’d be siding with the latter.
Who is riding Mullins horses ? No updates on RP site and there’s less than 24 hours to go
Farcical
Davy Condon on Allure Of Allusion.
David Casey on Simenon.
Paul Townend on Midnight Game, Blackstairmountain and Dare To Doubt.
Paddy Mullins on Scotsirish.
Emmett Mullins on Uncle Junior.My 100% book:
Darlan 5/1,Montbazon 7/1, Galileo’s Choice 7/1
, Cinders And Ashes 10/1, Steps Of Freedom 10/1,
Tetlami 10/1
, Colour Squadron 14/1, Midnight Game 20/1, Prospect Wells 20/1, Trifolium 28/1, Vulcanite 33/1, Agent Archie 40/1, Dylan Ross 40/1, Hazy Tom 66/1, Distant Memories 66/1, Allure Of Illusion 132/1, Simenon 200/1, Jimbill 500/1, Catch Tammy 1000/1.
Anyone thinking of backing just one horse each way should seriously think about
Tetlami
. Available at around 16/1. Would be half that price if Darlan were not his stable companion. Looks the best value bet. I’m already on Darlan @ 9/1, but wouldn’t back it at todays prices.
Value Is EverythingI would guess Colour Squadron as Pricewise. I’m warming to him and Trifolium emmensley.
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