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I finally got my Cheltenham formscan underway. Uni work may have to take a back seat for the next week. Six hours of work and I have looked through the first five or six in the betting in this race so far!
I think Steps To Freedom is the best of the main contenders.
Darlan:
questions of him getting up the hill are wide of the mark I think – he looked green when he scrambled home at Cheltenham. Stride didn’t shorten at all, just took a while for the penny to drop. Jumping is the bigger issue. Has made mistakes on all of his runs over hurdles and won’t get away with much in the Supreme. Remember Cousin Vinny and Dunguib…
Steps To Freedom:
off for a few months but needs decent ground, so no worries. Ground looked tacky when he beat Prospect Wells cosily. That horse is rated 145, STF gave him weight and a beating on not ideal ground. Prospect Wells might even be rated higher with a better ride in the Ladbroke. I make STF a mid 160s horse at least. Reliable, good jumper, good attitude.
Galileo’s Choice:
Right up there with the best flat horses in the race. Didn’t look amazing when he beat Drumfire first time up, but that horse is classy when he fancies it and lack of experience is an excuse for GC. Has done well on unsuitable ground since. Hard to ignore him with good ground and all that flat ability. I find it hard to split him and Steps To Freedom, but the shocking record of Mr Weld at Cheltenham relegates Galileo’s Choice for me.
Cinders And Ashes:
Lovely horse with a fighting spirit, but no idea why so high in the betting. Has had his limitations exposed more than once in his career, but should box on to be better than midfield with that great attitude.
Montbazon:
Another who has found one too good many times in his career. Swatted away by Steps To Freedom at Aintree, Cheltenian on debut, Colour Squadron at Newbury. Don’t see any reason why he will suddenly become the elite horse. Looked a tricky ride at Newbury last time too – all over the shop.
Midnight Game:
should be held by Galileo’s Choice especially as that horse beat him on unsuitable ground.
Still plenty more to get through, so I won’t nail myself to
Steps To Freedom
just yet. It’ll take something special to change my idea though.
From video form, I like the look of
Dylan Ross
each-way. He has travelled the best in every race he has contested this season, then dogged it when asked to win the race. Looks like he would finish second to anything. He could well ‘do a Harchibald’ next Tuesday as well.
in what looks an open and not exactly high quality renewal, i like the chances of prospect wells. if you ignore his last run, then his form is tied in very closely with steps of freedom who is around 14 points shorter.
Not for me. Jessie done exactly the same with Cork All Star in the bumper. Connections reckon the horse was over the top the last day at Chelts and were always going to give him a break to freshen up for the better ground. My idea of the winner now, and definitely cant see it out of the 1st 3.
Not for me. Jessie done exactly the same with Cork All Star in the bumper. Connections reckon the horse was over the top the last day at Chelts and were always going to give him a break to freshen up for the better ground. My idea of the winner now, and definitely cant see it out of the 1st 3.
Wow, he’s a monstrous animal if that is true. Giving weight to Prospect Wells (decent horse, maybe 150+, at least 145), on slightly tacky ground, over the top and winning snugly.
"Move over, Darlan!"
Uni schmooni! Get the Cheltenham studying in son and worry about your career later!
Divapour as THM points out on another thread is a most fascinating runner from France, I can see it running a big race should he take his place. Pau form looks solid and is ex Aga Khan, beautifully bred ( out of Daylami). The French aren’t strangers to Cheltenham success!
Uni schmooni! Get the Cheltenham studying in son and worry about your career later!
Anybody who is putting their career, family or future ahead of Cheltenham is a worse human being than Mussolini. Check yourself into the psychiatric ward now. Disgusting behaviour. Total lack of respect.
No, the idiot wanted to condense the Festival into a 2-day event. He had all the Italians on his side but one foreigner protested so they surrendered their plans immediately.
Quite right, Rich.
I have a weekly English lecture at 3-4 o’clock on Fridays. Chances of me attending it next week? **** all!
I’m still absolutely convinced Darlan doesn’t doesn’t pack the power for the hill this year. Maybe next year fella, but you don’t deserve favouritism, despite how well you may have travelled in the Betfair.
Just like all Nicky’s novices. All talent, no strength…..
I did English Language at Cardiff University (yes, a bit of an oxymoron!) where you studying TYF?
Grab the 80/1 on Divapour with PP, it’s 50/1 everywhere else!
I’m at Liverpool Uni, Rich. When choosing my university preferences a couple of years ago, I was torn between staying at home in Bristol or going to Liverpool. No academic reasons at all – I just wanted easy access to a major jumps festival!
Anyway, here is a video of Divapour winning a 20k handicap on the flat at Nancy. His headcarriage looked suspicious for a moment, then he buckled down well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCs-IKD2dTA
Equidea website videos are not free, so are there any more Divapour clips on YouTube?
I’m still absolutely convinced Darlan doesn’t doesn’t pack the power for the hill this year. Maybe next year fella, but you don’t deserve favouritism, despite how well you may have travelled in the Betfair.
Just like all Nicky’s novices. All talent, no strength…..
Agree totally Boz, no way should be favourite.
Not for me. Jessie done exactly the same with Cork All Star in the bumper. Connections reckon the horse was over the top the last day at Chelts and were always going to give him a break to freshen up for the better ground. My idea of the winner now, and definitely cant see it out of the 1st 3.
The " Last run no longer than 45 days ago " stat has to be considered in the Supreme.
In the Bumper, 8 / 10 had not run for at least 32 days ( i think )
I just can’t have Darlan/Galileo’s Choice for this. What have either really achieved?
Darlan’s novice hurdle form isn’t particularly strong or impressive. His beating of Jump City at Taunton doesn’t particularly entice me on his chances, given it taught us nothing and didn’t answer any questions on how much he finds off the bridle. The same at Newbury ; we don’t know what happens when push comes to shove. Given the doubts surrounding the value of his form, his previous Cheltenham experience, his heavy Newbury Fall and the lack of any real evidence on how much he really has left when asked means i think he’s a really poor price. He’d be interesting at 16’s.
Galileo’s Choice won a very poor race very easily last time out. Again like Darlon, he’s priced on hype rather than any form. There are several other irish candidates i prefer over him.
There are about 8-9 horses here who all have some realistic and logical chance. As all of them have concerns to overcome, i wouldn’t be rushing those at the very top of the market.
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