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I like Micheal Flips for this, but slight concern he will get outpaced at some stage and not be able to get back into it. He has won on yielding, in a point-to-point, but has run only on good to soft or better over hurdles. If we get soft ground, it ought to play to his strengths stamina wise, but still needs to prove he handles that type of going.
One we haven’t discussed much on here is Kempes. A seven furlong winner on the flat, there is perhaps reason to think he might find the trip at Cheltenham too much of a stamina test. But he was also a winner of over 13 furlongs on the flat, with a top flat rating of 104. Also, his last win over hurdles was at Navan, a fairly testing track. I am not sure Kempes has beaten very much over hurdles so far. In his penultimate race though he had Roberto Goldback 6 lengths behind and that horse has run fairly impressively since. A slight worry with Kempes would be that his skill as a hurdler may be insufficient to match the speed he can muster when they start to race. He is likely to travel well, but might lack the fluency required over the hurdles in the later stages of the race to take advantage of his class.
Anyone else have any thoughts about Kempes?
Go Native will be swinging on the bit two out but won’t get up the hill. Place possibilities at best. Paul will ride him if he’s fit and I’m sure he’ll get a nice view of Cousin Vinny’s backside storming up the hill to win!
I would find it hard to believe that Cousin Vinnys finish in a competition paced 2 mile bumper would have more speed than for example, Red Moloney’s very good finishes over 10-13furlongs on the flat, often in slow paced events. If he has the speed to win this I will be genuinely shocked.
??? the bumper is a flat race ? am i missing something here ? not enough speed ??
You sure are! If he ran on the flat over 10 to 13 furlongs he would be lucky to get within half a furlong of the likes of Red Monlony or any other decent middle distance flat horse. Those horses do well in 2m hurdles beacause they get a breater every time they jump a hurdle.
You can bet your life the only reason CV runs here is because HF is out. I wouldn’t have 10p on him. I will be shocked if he’s in the first 2 in what is sure to be a fast run race.
Be prepared to eat your words OH GREAT ONE
Just looking down the list it would not surprise me if we get a real shock in this race. Mikael D’Haguenet, Aachen and Mr Thriller were the only three I would fancy to actually appreciate soft ground and none of them seem to be intended runners.
AP now on Ainama which leaves Michael Flips with form, ground and jockey problems. I think at one stage he touched 8/1 but now likely to be a big drifter.
Am well happy with Ainama now being confirmed on Ainama and he must surely have a favorites chance on all known form, just has to prove he’ll get up the hill.
I give cousin Vinny next to no chance in this, ruby looks to be on the better of Mullins pair. Kempes could have won his last race by 10 lengths if he had have been set loose earlier, and that run shouted supreme novice at me.
I think michael flips chance will improve with the more cut in the ground, and he is a danger as he should be at his strongest coming up the hill but just cant bring myself to back a Kayf Tara at 2miles in this sort of grade.
Torpichen is one who will be greatly disadvantaged by any cut in the ground and I dont see him getting up the hill.
Go Native IMO just doent have the class at 2 miles.
Red Moloney has a leading chance if as effective on good-soft but if he is beaten he will be a cracking bet for aintree.
Medermit wants it soft IMO, and if it was soft he’d have a cracking chance.
Copper Bleu deserves a 2nd chance on good-sft at cheltenham, everything about the horse reminds me of snap tie, who was 3rd klast year behind better horses than are lining up this year, could yet be the winner.
Golan Way has done absolutely nothing wrong and will go on the ground for anyone wanting a decent priced one who has everything up his street for a good run, he looks the forgotten horse.
Will ahve a look through the big prices on the day.
Am well happy with Ainama now being confirmed on Ainama and he must surely have a favorites chance on all known form, just has to prove he’ll get up the hill.
I give cousin Vinny next to no chance in this, ruby looks to be on the better of Mullins pair.
Bully, which formbook are you reading?
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Please let the ground be good, good-to-soft on Tuesday…
Its the form book of eyes + racing post + common sense.
Are you saying that cousin vinny has better form than ainama?
Cousin Vinny’s best form was either his bumper form or when he was still travelling well at the end of an 18f race on soft ground against pandorama? Any sort of form which he has which looks applicable to the supreme novice looks poor IMO.
Ainma has a soft ground win over hebridean which although not rock solid through hebridean, as he was always due to improve with the ground, through intensifier back in fifth looks a decent enough piece of form. But it was how impressively he done it on soft that day, coupled with how he didnt appear to be one bit happy on good at kempton, and his jumping was poor as a result, yet he still ran a stormer for second, that balance of form is what would make him favorite in my form book.
There are a few who will improve as I have mentioned above, but on those trwo pieces of form Ainama should be favorite IMO, as he looks to set the bar.
I think michael flips chance will improve with the more cut in the ground, and he is a danger as he should be strongest coming up the hill but just cant bring myself to back a Kayf Tara at 2miles in this sort of grade.
Copper Bleu deserves a 2nd chance on good-sft at cheltenham, everything about the horse reminds me of snap tie, who was 3rd klast year behind better horses than are lining up this year, could yet be the winner.
You might think Michael Flips will improve on soft ground on the basis of your mindset Kayf Tara = soft ground but hopefully others will not follow you over the cliff. Have a look at his action and how he has been campaigned. Earlier this week three horses by Kayf Tara were declared to run in the bumper at Fontwell on good/good to firm. Philip Hobbs has already stated more than once that he doesn’t want soft ground for Planet Of Sound and despite winning on soft ground connections have also confirmed Carruthers wants better ground. The Package is another high profile Kayf Tara who doesn’t want soft ground.
Last time Copper Bleu was backed as if defeat was out of the question whereas Master Of Arts was incredibly weak in the market. Personally even allowing for the weight concession I thought Copper Bleu was disappointing, never jumping with any fluency and at no stage looking like a winner. I think he still has plenty to prove.
Copper bleu was indeed disappointing, but then so was celestial halo in the exact same same race last year, and when you then bear in mind that Master Of Arts (who was the only horse to beat him home that day) was a miler on the flat, and so when you look at it a little you may start to think that the donny race just isnt suited to better staying horses.
Carruthers IMO is best on soft- heavy, we will see if he does better round cheltenham but he won’t be one I’ll be backing for it, especially after last time. It is not a case of anyone following me over the cliff, I have stated several times that I have not backed Micheal Flips, but I do have him down as a solid danger, realistically if the ground was good he wouldnt get a sniff at Red Moloney. If he has any chance of winning it will be good-soft or worse ground where he can play the stamina card to effect.
Its the form book of eyes + racing post + common sense.
Are you saying that cousin vinny has better form than ainama?
Cousin Vinny’s best form was either his bumper form or when he was still travelling well at the end of an 18f race on soft ground against pandorama? Any sort of form which he has which looks applicable to the supreme novice looks poor IMO.
Ainma has a soft ground win over hebridean which although not rock solid through hebridean, as he was always due to improve with the ground, through intensifier back in fifth looks a decent enough piece of form. But it was how impressively he done it on soft that day, coupled with how he didnt appear to be one bit happy on good at kempton, and his jumping was poor as a result, yet he still ran a stormer for second, that balance of form is what would make him favorite in my form book.
There are a few who will improve as I have mentioned above, but on those trwo pieces of form Ainama should be favorite IMO, as he looks to set the bar.
You amaze me how you read form , but i guess everyone is entitled to their view
What do you novice experts think of Medermit’s form? He seemed to put Golan Way in his place which doesn’t look too shabby.
I reckon Medermit has place chances, Tuffers. He wants further than 2m, imo, and I think he can stay on amongst the best of them.
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