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Prevailing opinion seems to be that a big field and strong pace is guaranteed in the Supreme, but is that really going to be the case? Many of the horses behind Dunguib in the betting are also engaged in the Neptune, and I can see the race potentially cutting up to a dozen or so runners.
The pace might still be generous even with a smaller than usual field, but I don’t think that will find Dunguib out anyway. He is a pinch, imo, and 4/5 is probably going to look generous after the fact.
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Would absolutely disagree with you on the pace.
Any ordinary punter who is looking to lay Dunguib has a screw lose and out to prove what?. They aren’t going to make their fortune and there are dozens of bad horses who start at short prices where they can lay one with a lot less risk.
I would think the 4 year olds who go for the Supreme this year will be thin on the ground if any. Of the older horses Menorah seems to be the biggest threat but if he oozes class what on earth does Bobby Ewing do?
There was no fluke about the way he left Menorah for dead on fastish ground at Doncaster. Granted he was getting weight but no way would Menorah would have beaten him even if the weights had been reversed.
His win over Bellvano could be very good form but it could also amount to very little. Nicky Henderson wasn’t exactly happy with Bellvano’s performance and he certainly never looked half the horse he did the time before. There must be every chance the form is ordinary and he is absolutely no threat to Dunguib.
With everyone in the race thinking Dunguib can’t jump they will go off like a bunch of scalded cats. It’s sure to be a fast gallop and if the ground is riding on the fast side of good it may be Nicky Henderson’s Oscar Whisky would become the biggest danger if there is one.
Menorah looks like he wants cut in the ground to be seen at his best as does Rite of Passage but Oscar Whiskey has proven form on fast ground and on soft.
I think for those looking to back something EW they should wait until the day just in case it does ride fast.
I doubt if it will make much difference to Dunguib though and his jumping isn’t bad enough to be a concern. Like all big horses he should jump better with a faster pace but if you meet one wrong at the speed they run round Cheltenham it can stop any horse in their tracks.
However I think he has to fall to get beat. Apart from Peddlar’s Cross, who is unlikely to run, nothing stands out as a horse who would have me jumping on the phone to back on a normal Saturday let alone to beat Dunguib in the Supreme.
Due to a special he has more or less paid for all my AP Cheltenham bets already so I intend having a good few bob on him at the best price I can get on the day. Hopefully it will give me a few bob to be playing the rst of the meeting with.
A lot of "Bankers" have met with defeat at Cheltenham and a wise man would just let him win. Which makes me as crazy as the guys who want to lay him with on big difference…..I’ll win they won’t!…..get stuck in lads it’s only money
Menorah has tended to race very freely and didn’t get home at Doncaster over the longer trip.
Despite the decent time I have my doubts about the value of the Kempton form and suspect with his style of running he may want a sharp, flat track. I think he is much too short in the market – seemingly those who have supported him think Bellvano is a worldbeater. Having said that I think quicker ground should be a benefit not a disadvantage.
To oppose Dunguib does not mean you are laying dunguib. You can oppose by simply not backing in the race or by backing something else. Personally I dont do 4-5 shots or whatever he will be, certainly not in 20 runner Championship Novice Hurdles and certainly not on a horse who has looked a sketchy jumper.
Its not a flat race and so anyone ignoring his jumping flaws is surely too blinkered!
Any chance Rite Of Passage will run in the Supreme rather than the Neptune?
He looks the one horse with a huge upside against the very brilliant Dunguib. Wouldn’t like ROP chances in the Neptune. I think he could close the gap substantially from the Bumper in the Supreme.Its well worth watching the 2009 bumper again on Cheltenham TV and when you do you may understand the reason why connections of Rite Of Passage are looking at the Neptune, it was very close to the wow factor the way Dunguib rolled up alongside Rite Of Passage at the top of the home straight and from there on in it was wow!!
dunguibs win in the bumper last year was breathtaking. most impressive winner at cheltenham ive seen for a few years. if he doesnt win the supreme on the bridle i’ll seriously think about jacking the game in
Get Me Out Of Here still a big price after today, surely Dunguib can’t even steamroll him, I will be impressed if he does so, but I can’t see it. I hardly think Get Me Out Of Here would be at the same level as Some present.
I wouldn’t get carried away with get me out of here. He won a handicap off 10-6. Yes he won nicely but if you had put Dunguib in that race off 10-6 he could have won 30L.
Get me out of here has stones to find imo.
I wouldn’t get carried away with get me out of here. He won a handicap off 10-6. Yes he won nicely but if you had put Dunguib in that race off 10-6 he could have won 30L.
Get me out of here has stones to find imo.
Had he not bungled the last he would have won virtually on the bridle. Not too many horses have won the Totesport that easily and the ‘right horses’ finished in the money so the form looks pretty useful.
Get Me Out Of Here still a big price after today, surely Dunguib can’t even steamroll him, I will be impressed if he does so, but I can’t see it. I hardly think Get Me Out Of Here would be at the same level as Some present.
I’ve had to read this three times and I still can’t believe what I’m seeing
Get Me Out Of Here is going to get Dunguib off the bridle?
Don’t make me laugh or correct me if I’ve misunderstood
Pricewise going to go for one against Dunguib tomorrow –
I think he might plump for…
RITE OF PASSAGE
gave 11lbs and a beating (‘eased final furlong’) to Donna’s Palm, who has since won twice and finished second in an Irish Champion Hurdle. Currently backable at 16/1 on BF. Downside is that he was readily outpointed by Dunguib in last years festival bumper but there will be hurdoles in teh way this time and Dunguib isn’t altogether the most convincing jumper of all time
He’s a Tom Segal type of horse I think.
Get Me Out Of Here still a big price after today, surely Dunguib can’t even steamroll him, I will be impressed if he does so, but I can’t see it. I hardly think Get Me Out Of Here would be at the same level as Some present.
I’ve had to read this three times and I still can’t believe what I’m seeing
Get Me Out Of Here is going to get Dunguib off the bridle?
Don’t make me laugh or correct me if I’ve misunderstood
I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss Get Me Out Of Here, CS. For all that Dunguib looks a machine, he’s jumped pretty indifferently in small fields, and if the Supreme does turn out to be a 20-runner, lickety-split affair, there’s an outside chance he might not jump/travel as well as he did last weekend.
Conversely, Get Me Out Of Here has been battle-hardened in a big-field competitive handicap, and a strong pace will be right up his street. I think Jonjo’s horse is a lively threat to Dunguib, and 14/1 is a great each-way price.
Pricewise going to go for one against Dunguib tomorrow –
I think he might plump for…
RITE OF PASSAGE
gave 11lbs and a beating (‘eased final furlong’) to Donna’s Palm, who has since won twice and finished second in an Irish Champion Hurdle. Currently backable at 16/1 on BF. Downside is that he was readily outpointed by Dunguib in last years festival bumper but there will be hurdoles in teh way this time and Dunguib isn’t altogether the most convincing jumper of all time
He’s a Tom Segal type of horse I think.
He’ll go for the 2m5 race if he wins at Punchestown on Wednesday Corm.
I can’t see too many Irish trainers rushing to take Dunguib on in the Supreme. Apart from Blackstairmountain and Loosen My Load, I don’t think there’ll be many Irish horses towards the head of the market against the machine. They’re all either heading for the longer race (Some Present/Rite Of Passage) or staying at home for Fairyhouse and Punchestown (Luska Lad).
Pricewise going to go for one against Dunguib tomorrow –
I think he might plump for…
RITE OF PASSAGE
He suggested as much in his Irish Racing article a week or so in RP but I can’t see the connections take on Dunguib again, they got too much of a shock last year
gave 11lbs and a beating (‘eased final furlong’) to Donna’s Palm, who has since won twice and finished second in an Irish Champion Hurdle. Currently backable at 16/1 on BF. Downside is that he was readily outpointed by Dunguib in last years festival bumper but there will be hurdoles in teh way this time and Dunguib isn’t altogether the most convincing jumper of all time
He’s a Tom Segal type of horse I think.
He’ll go for the 2m5 race if he wins at Punchestown on Wednesday Corm.
I can’t see too many Irish trainers rushing to take Dunguib on in the Supreme. Apart from Blackstairmountain and Loosen My Load, I don’t think there’ll be many Irish horses towards the head of the market against the machine. They’re all either heading for the longer race (Some Present/Rite Of Passage) or staying at home for Fairyhouse and Punchestown (Luska Lad).
He’s gone for Blackstairmountain, he’s a bit of a Willie Mullins fan is old Tom. Not a bad shout either as the horse couldn’t look any more promising than he has done.
I’ve given some thought to the possibilty of Dunguib being beaten as I always like to look for the worst when I’m planning a big punt.
It’s only his box walking and nervous disposition that give me any concern, his jumping IMO will be fine (more that good enough) in a bigger field and faster pace.
Phipip Fenton got permission to get him to the course very late last year, it’s just conceivable he could fret himself into the wrong mental condition but thats probably a 10-1 shot.
Nothing else can stop him so any odds better than 1-2 in the race seems to represent a pretty good value
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