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Last year, this race was won by Duff, who was given a great front-running ride. Sadly he’s not in the field this year, but the third from last year, Ceremonial Jade, does make the line up.
I think there are some similarities to last years race. In that there’s a classy front-runner coming from a very nice draw in Dunelight, & a few talented horses who will be held-up, like Himalya, Sir Gerry, Aeroplane & Ceremonial Jade. Dohasa may well fall somewhere in-between.
I can’t help feeling an on-song Dunelight would be very difficult to get past. You could argue that a few of his placed runs on turf make him the form pick. The worries with him are; his recent run at Kempton was disappointing (but it did come after a break & he may have been unfit), that was also his only try on the AW. If he’s not on-song though, he’ll just be setting it up for something coming from the back. From his good draw, I can see him trying to make a bold bid from the front.
Dohosa also comes here with some very good form. He’s chased Duff home twice in Ireland, he has won on the AW at Dundalk, & ran well in Dubai last winter. He could have had a better draw. I could see him running well.
A couple of the better hold-up horses who like Kempton are drawn high. Ceremonial Jade should be able to drop down to the rail, & get a near-perfect trip. I could see him staying on well, but he wasn’t able to win this last year, & has a 2lb penalty this year. Areoplance is drawn against the rail, & it would be no surprise if he was held up last. His recent impressive wins were in low class races, this is very different. He had ability, but my instinct would be to leave him & look elsewhere.
Himalya is still unexposed, & has a couple of very good pieces of form as a 2yo. Even his 3rd at Lingfield last time gives him a chance here. I could see a scenario where he proves to be much better than these…..but you having to take some things on trust with him.
Sir Gerry has some top class back-form. If he can reproduce that over a slightly longer trip, he would probably win, but his more recent efforts have not been anywhere near that level. He also is burdened with a very poor draw. I don’t think this will be his day.
Capricorn Run deserves a mention as a consistant AW performer, but I always feel he’ll fall a little short in this sort of company.
My short-list is Dunelight, Himalya, Dohosa and Ceremonial Jade, who will probably end up as the 1st four in the market! I’d love to see Dunelight make all here, but I’m a bit worried he’ll be picked off by one of the others.
Decent little listed race in an otherwise bland card of winter AW.
Agree with your assessment and think it’s between Dunelight and Dohasa – can only see Ceremonial Jade and Himalya as potential dangers (they’re also drawn well). Dunelight made an average reappearance in the Hyde Stakes; hopefully that was a prep-run to shed the cobwebs for this – he has a plum draw to try and make all, and should be booked for a place at least.
I wouldn’t be too worried that Dohasa drawn in 6 – a perfectly good draw to position himself well to be in contention in the final furlong. His Dundalk AW win in the autumn was good and has since added to that with another win at the Curragh and came a very good second to the aforementioned Duff – has since had a 2 month break and should be spot on for this and will be a worthy favourite.
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I would have to agree with Rich on this. Ger Lyons doesn’t make many mistakes I think he looks nailed on.
Need we forget Ger brought over his decent 7f performer Finicus to this last year and failed to hit the board?
I think theres been a strong over-reaction to how good Dohasa is and think he’s very underpriced. I’ll take it like a man if he does win but don’t think he’s priced anywhere near what he should be.
Aeroplane is more than good enough to win this on his day as is Ceremonial Jade and they would be my two against the field here at 12/1 and 6/1.
Good draws, good late running styles and they’ll be there or thereabouts.
Finicus was trained by eoin griffin,
I agree with H2H about Dohasa, he’s underpriced. The 2 races he won this year were very weak affairs and on both occasions he beat horses rated well below him. I have him down as a horse that is not fully genuine as he has carried his head high against duff in tipp and leopardstown.
As I posted on the all weather thread I think Ceremonial Jade is the solid option. As pointed out, he does carry a 2lb extra than last year but he has top form in exactly this kind of race. Aeroplane is interesting now with P Evans. Trainer has had a fine season, often improving underperforming horses and he could be a danger.
I like Dunelight who’s 3rd to Paco Boy at Goodwood last summer is possibly the strongest form on offer in the whole event. However, he’d be doing well to lead this lot from start to finish so its Ceremonial Jade and the Fallon drive to wear him down close home imo!
My mistake, he was indeed trained by Eoin Griffin. Getting my trainers mixed up with these colours!
Finicius did have a very similar form pattern to Dohasa before hand though and I can’t believe a couple of decent runs in average company before the 2nd to Duff will be good enough here. Not at 7/4 anyway.
Surely Mr Evans can bring out even more improvement in the tricky customer Aeroplane tonight from a great draw?
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