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What do you guys make of the form if you consider Lounaos as the fixed variable? ? ?
Katchit beat the horse last year by 29 lengths at Cheltenham, and Sizing Europe, although he is favourite for the Champion Hurdle this year, beat Lounaos by 13 lengths in the AIG.
As a Sizing Europe supporter it wouldn’t worry me too much Gareth. The mare Lounaos has put up her two best runs on AIG day (on the figures), in both 07 and 08. I can understand some people want to crab sizing europe’s jumping but at the end of the day if you post up a 170 performance and there’s still something to work on you know you have a good horse on your hands.
As for Sublimity, well I respect those that say he is still the horse to beat, but surely there comes a time, in such a competative and changing race such as the champion hurdle, when you have to judge a horse based on what it did in a season, and not one run, a life time best, in a previous race? Obviously that fourth alone wasn’t too clever and not a horse i’d want to back against some of the fancied one’s.
Thanks a lot marb, agree with the point on Sizing Europe’s jumping too.
I personally couldn’t have Sublimity either, not at all.
I love Katchit, i think he is a very good horse and he just loves Cheltenham. His attitude to racing is fantastic and i really do hope he wins the Champion Hurdle.
I think it is a fascinating renewal this year, there are so many if’s and but’s about the main contenders, then there are also a few of the outside bets in with a shout too, the race should be a very, very interesting one.
Fist
We’re all obviously free to have our own opinions of the form but if we take RP ratings as a benchmark, Sizing Europe’s win in the AIG matched Sublimity’s win in the CH. My concern about Sizing Europe is that he doesn’t have the fluent hurdling style you would normally associate with CH winners in that he seems to spend a bit too much time in the air over his hurdles.
That said I’m sure he’ll go close – I just think he has it all to prove whereas Sublimity has already done it.
Several people have pointed that out about his hurdling and I wouldn’t argue. If you think he was bad in the AIG go and look at when he beat big Zeb he jumped worse then. Hopefully he will improved his jumping by the time he gets to Cheltenham…………if they go too slow it wont help.as he has a huge stride………if he gets a strong gallop hopefully his jumping will improve for it and his huge stride compensate for any ground he may lose with his jumping.
Bang on target my ass- he’ll be lapped.
Just out of interest, Carvs, do you base that on seeing last years’ CH as a weak renewal, or the doubt regarding Sublimitys’ race fitness with him lacking a run since that waddle in the Boylesports?
I base it on no Champion Hurdle winner in my memory winning off the preparation he’s had- one poor run. Add that to persistent rumours about mucous in his lungs and the fact that I don’t rate his trainer and he’s a win and place lay for me.
Agree with carvillshill about Sublimity. Even if last year’s Champion Hurdle performance is the 160’s performance some claim, there has to be doubts given subsequent events whether he can repeat them. Opposing him has to the the bet of the Tuesday. I’d relish the thought of being able to take Katchit and a head-start against Sublimity in a match bet.
The point about Sublimity being with a small time trainer is a pertinent one when considering the chances of getting him fit after so long. He struck last year but this is a new campaign with the bar probably raised.
The way he has been run is odd to say the least. I dont much care whether it worked last time around. For me he still has a distinct disadvantage against more battle hardened animals
Whether hes a "good" trainer or not, i dont really know, but hes hardly prolific. As FOF says, winning one good race proves nothing. Im sure he will agree that even winning a few good races, like Jonjo has, doesnt prove everything
and i would love Katchit to win too….
I have had my doubts over sublimity, especially with regards his prep but the picture in todays racing post of him working he does look to be in pretty good shape. However last year sublimity did attract a signaficant gamble prior to his win and this time round theres been virtually no money for him. It will be interesting to see if hes a decent price on the day, but it looks like sizing europes year.
What do you guys make of the form if you consider Lounaos as the fixed variable? ? ?
Katchit beat the horse last year by 29 lengths at Cheltenham, and Sizing Europe, although he is favourite for the Champion Hurdle this year, beat Lounaos by 13 lengths in the AIG.
Using that as a guide Catch Me is a better horse than Sizing Europe and Katchit judging by the red mills hurdle…
I think De Valira could be a dark horse for the CH.. That was his first run in ages and he travelled really well before flattening out in the straight.. Interesting at a big price IMO
What do you guys make of the form if you consider Lounaos as the fixed variable? ? ?
Katchit beat the horse last year by 29 lengths at Cheltenham, and Sizing Europe, although he is favourite for the Champion Hurdle this year, beat Lounaos by 13 lengths in the AIG.
Using that as a guide Catch Me is a better horse than Sizing Europe and Katchit judging by the red mills hurdle…
I think De Valira could be a dark horse for the CH.. That was his first run in ages and he travelled really well before flattening out in the straight.. Interesting at a big price IMO
De Valira has run three times against Sizing Europe and beaten him every time…
Louanos needs soft ground. Didnt really have that at Cheltenham
And probably over the top as well for the season. She is pretty good and her run in the Irish champion for me was expected. To be honest, I cant find too many holes in the race apart from the fact that the winner won too easily really especailly given how hard he seemed to be pulling and how high his jumping was. Its just the doubting thomas in all of us that wants to see the trick a few times before we call it a miracle.
Strictly speaking, if he is as good as he looked last day, he should devastate most of these. If only tipping were that simple though.
SHL
I have had my doubts over sublimity, especially with regards his prep but the picture in todays racing post of him working he does look to be in pretty good shape. However last year sublimity did attract a signaficant gamble prior to his win and this time round theres been virtually no money for him. It will be interesting to see if hes a decent price on the day, but it looks like sizing europes year.
I think this is the piece from the RP you’re referring to:
ALL is well in the Sublimity camp after last year’s Champion Hurdle hero warmed up for his repeat bid with an impressive racecourse gallop at Leopardstown.
John Carr’s lightly-raced gelding sprang a 16-1 surprise in 2007, but is no bigger than 5-1 to retain his crown in this year’s Smurfit Kappa-sponsored race.
Not seen since down the field at Cheltenham in December, Sublimity did all that was asked of him in a spin over a mile and three-quarters with two stablemates, leaving Carr more than satisfied.
He said: "It went very well and I could not be happier with the way he worked – he sprinted away from them in the straight."
Philip Carberry enjoyed his finest moment when booting the eight-year-old home last March and is relishing the chance to get back in the saddle.
Carberry added: "He quickened nicely in the straight and felt very good. In fact, he felt as goodas I have ever felt him."
In Bob Cooper’s interview on ATR, John Carr seemed to say Sublimity was not yet fully fit but expected him to be after his on course work out. However, where as last year connections were bullish, this time they seem reticent to give any good vibes. From the picture on TV Sublimity’s coat did look a bit dull. Reading between the lines I doubt if he will be as good this year. A friend of mine saw his reappearance, “never seen such a burly horse in the paradeâ€
Value Is EverythingLouanos needs soft ground. Didnt really have that at Cheltenham
And probably over the top as well for the season. She is pretty good and her run in the Irish champion for me was expected. To be honest, I cant find too many holes in the race apart from the fact that the winner won too easily really especailly given how hard he seemed to be pulling and how high his jumping was. Its just the doubting thomas in all of us that wants to see the trick a few times before we call it a miracle.
Strictly speaking, if he is as good as he looked last day, he should devastate most of these. If only tipping were that simple though.
What????
Lounaos got a rating from the AIG last year that put her 14lb ahead of anything else in the Triumph and found nothing when it got hot… she’s done nothing since apart from in the AIG when it’s lauded as a great run and now we’re finding excuses for her most recent run and that last year???
Sizing Europe may well be the one to beat, but has it to prove having only run a CH winning rating once. Sublimity may well have been "as big as a house" when at the Bula (although I was there and he looked fine to me, if not a bit slow once he’d tried to pass Katchit)…
Sublimity, Sizing Europe and Osana have all got to prove that they can repeat once only form… if they do that they’ll contest the CH
Harchibald and Katchit for me!
But Kachit has never put up a performance good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Needs to improve.
Sorry but Katchit is consistent, consistently short of Champion class.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingBut Kachit has never put up a performance good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Needs to improve.
Sorry but Katchit is consistent, consistently short of Champion class.
Ginge
Quite agree! We’ll see next week
Don’t think he needs to find much though – as far as I can tell the rating system is more than a little flawed.
As I said, if they all run to their best marks we’ll be behind but I’d take your money that not all three will be ahead!
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