- This topic has 17 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Sir Michael Stoute only started running his 3-y-olds recently, but so far he’s 0/13, with the latest disapointment getting beaten in a Windsor maiden last night at 4/6.
Obviously the biggest name beaten to date was Confront in the Greenham, who ran like an 80 rated handicapper in that Group 3.
It can’t be an overall stable form problem as the 4-y-olds are 2/3 over the same period, but with most of those 13 losers having started at fairly short odds, they seem to be worth avoiding until at least one manages to win (probably the next one now I’ve posted this!).
Are they a moderate bunch, or just in need of a run ?
AP
Alan,
A lad I know has pretty good contacts with the yard and thinks they have left them a little short. Not ideal, but not the end of the world either as few people remember who wins in April!
Yes, i noticed that also, Contrast that with what i believe was quite an electric spell at the same time last year if memory serves me correctly.
Confront didn’t appear to have the ground as his only reason for his performance; just didn’t appear good enough.
Just like Paul Nicholls and other big yards, it can be profitable to back them when there winning but even more so to lay them when there losing. All big yards have a dry spell
Not a good example though….
Even at this stage of the season the stable is as in form as ever. When did he last have a really bad spell?
Hi AP
Sir Michael Stoute went through a similar patch in 2001 & 2004
2001 1/16 (April)
Looking at May his fillies were still not firing 1/18, but his colts did ok with a decent Jockey in the saddle (Pareto) Jockey Pareto 7/21 £30.00 to a £1 Stake
2004 2/19 (April)
During May
5/24 colts
5/14 FilliesThe fillies did well when restricted to their own sex 4/8
I guess its worth trying to see how the filies look in their coat etc before placing a bet.
Good Luck
Monster
Well his 2 year olds were that hot last year, but its a bit early to write them off yet. Also wasn’t it his older horses that started last year like a house on fire? He certainly dominated the 4 year old and upwards group races.
Could very well be weather related, here’s a quote from the man himself last week…
[b:3gwj0ljn]
"The ground has actually been OK," said Sir Michael Stoute, in the process of preparing Confront for the 2,000 Guineas and Visit for the 1,000 Guineas, "but what you don’t want at this stage is cold. But if it warms up from here we should be OK."
[/b:3gwj0ljn]
Ah, but he did have "one" bad Saturday last saturday if I remember rightly, including Noland
True
Ah, but he did have "one" bad Saturday last saturday if I remember rightly, including Noland. It makes sense that the bigger the trainer, the more short priced horses he’ll have, some will win, some will get beat, back the winners lay the losers, it makes sense.
I find if you lay Nicholl’s "best chance of all my runners today" on Teletext you make a decent profit.
Stoute is a funny one because I dont think he tends to leave his to short (in recent seasons any way) wheras Obrien will usually target a group1 with his horses, and if they run in lower grade it is usually because he feels it is a necessary part of their prep for something bigger. O’brien is usually one to stay clear of before the guineas a she usually runs the ones who havent trained on in the hope of getting something out of them on the track that he isnt seeing at home, although with his juveniles of 07 being below standard, I think he is running a mix of horses at the minute, through not knowing who is who in terms of ability at the moment, and having targets fast approaching.
In 06 Stouty peaked around May, where he won almost every Oaks Trial going, with Scottish Stage, Short Skirt, (the pretty polly if I remember) and another one I think, Papal Bull won the Chester Vase and Rob Roy won the betfred mile (end of april). He also won the lockinge with Peeress. Each one of whom looked tuned to the second for their respective races. With the exception of Notnowcato winning the International and Papal Bull winning at Ascot, that was his best month IMO.
It is usually because he seems to have them tuned for races that improvement is hard to guage, and a lot of the time stoutes horses will be priced far to short because they are stoute runners and he has no shortage of followers. Adagio last season was a prime example of stoute factor, the horse didnt win the craven by any more than he was entitled to on juvenile form, there was nothing in that race to even threaten him and yet he won by three lengths and was suddenly guineas favorite.
It is very seldom I find myself betting on stoute runners as the past few seasons they have been a moderate bunch, more of quantity than quality, and if he does have one with a sqeak of promise, it will be a fraction of the price it should be. He will start to get a strike rate together though at some point, he always does.
It is very seldom I find myself betting on stoute runners as the past few seasons they have been a moderate bunch, more of quantity than quality, and if he does have one with a sqeak of promise, it will be a fraction of the price it should be. He will start to get a strike rate together though at some point, he always does.
Notnowcato, Maraahel, Mountain High, Ask, Peeress, Jeremy, Rob Roy, Papal Bull, Best Alibi, Echelon, Tam Lin, Home Affairs, Noble Guest, Distinction, Promising Lead, Stage Gift, Allegretto…moderate?….and all without unfettered access to a "works" breeding setup.
Same pattern at Nottingham today – the 4-y-old Cabinet won, the 3-y-old Ascot Lime was sent off 13/8 fav for the maiden and was struggling from halfway, finishing unplaced.
One runner tomorrow – E Major (3-y-old) in a maiden at Beverley.
AP
If you blind lay Stoute horses MP you’ll need luck and lots of it.
ps. Thanks for putting up One Sniff a few weeks ago, I had a few quid at a decent price last Saturday
It is very seldom I find myself betting on stoute runners as the past few seasons they have been a moderate bunch, more of quantity than quality, and if he does have one with a sqeak of promise, it will be a fraction of the price it should be. He will start to get a strike rate together though at some point, he always does.
Notnowcato, Maraahel, Mountain High, Ask, Peeress, Jeremy, Rob Roy, Papal Bull, Best Alibi, Echelon, Tam Lin, Home Affairs, Noble Guest, Distinction, Promising Lead, Stage Gift, Allegretto…moderate?….and all without unfettered access to a "works" breeding setup.
For me for a stable of that size that is quite a moderate bunch of horses, Notnowcato, Peeress and Allegretto are all group1 class horses on their day, Mountain High and Echelon have taken the patience of a saint and everything to drop right for their given races to get a group1 on the boards. Maraahel after a long campaign is a bit of a group 1 also ran, who will pick up lower group races at times but is nothing special. Unless Ive missed something the rest are all lower group race winners. I think the horses he has done anything with have been as much through stoute being a good trainer as through those horses being naturally brilliant horses.
If you look at the bulk of stoutes stable, they arent that great a bunch, but yet if you see him field one in a lower grade race or a maiden at windsor or newmarket, newbury etc, it’ll be a short favorite, for me theres no value there because his form doesnt justify his support from blind stoute backers up and down the country who always seem to be on him. Cabaret won today but came there with a newmarket gallops report and went off at 6/4 in a competitive looking handicap
IMO in terms of stable strength he’s not up there with AOB at the minute, but yet his horses seem to get backed heavier than AOBs get backed in similar races Ireland. I dont back stables, but with stoute and godolphin, you can get some good priced bets in from opposing short priced no hopers from the their yards, that are soaking up all the money. If I like one of stoutes then I’ll back it, and I always liked Notnowcato, Papal Bull and Jeremy, but when I see some people in the bookies who follow him devoutly, I think its lunacy.
Stoute is never likely to have a string akin to that of O’Brien, Bulwark, and any notion to the contrary is seriously misguided. The fact that his horses are far better backed can be attributed to this also, given the range of owners he will have, the will of the stable staff to release information and punt accordingly, and the fact that Magnier and Tabor aren’t known for wading in on their own horses.
The list of horses provided previously isn’t moderate by any stretch of the imagination, and without quoting either the Coolmore or Godolphin in-training lists you would be hard pushed to name a trainer with a similarly ‘pleasing’ arsenal. Maybe they don’t achieve as highly as they perhaps should (though Home Affairs etc. have been well and truly screwed by the presence of Richard Hughes and the like) but quality is spread around so much these days that that is hardly surprising.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.