Still alive and kicking

[Bricoman]

Major n/r 1:50 Asco….Quick Release…21.4% reduction factor…not matched but with the exchanges being a bit of a learning curve, I have since found out that the betting was suspended and my original bet cancelled…anyway, worked out my revised odds and placed it once again.

Available odds @ 10:30…3.30
My revised required odds…3.91
My asked odds…4.30

I think if all this caper happened when I was throwing the zzzzz out…on a working day, then I would have been denied the opportunity for a bet.

Regards

Brico

[MrE]

Hi Brico…. I had a quick look at this Harville Thingy, couldn’t get past the first page…… I’ve met a few GG’s in my lifetime, and even stopped to chat to the likes of Dessie and Red Rum, and do you know, none of ’em knew anything about mathematics….. Dessie never once said to me, "bugger off MrE, a mathematician has told me that I’ve gotta finish 2nd in this race"….. neigh, neigh, and thrice neigh, I’ve never heard of such crap (that last bit was me, not Dessie…. just in case you were getting confused….. I have no doubt that Dave will enlighten me upon his return to Matrons arms……
All that the mathematics can do is to point us to a value bet, a bet where the odds are greater than they should be…… but I don’t care if its Einstein himself, they cannot point us to the winners cos the GG’s aint allowed to carry calculators when they’re racing….. I’ll give ground on the maths pointing us to value bets, but NO WAY can they point us to winners (or places), and thats what I’m on about….. you will still get the majority of horses being placed that come from the first three in the betting….. the problem is to choose which one of the three to bet….. the odds that you get will be really short, so you cannot afford to make many mistakes….. I’ve been lucky so far and am doing well, there is no reason why you and the others can’t do the same, the secret is in the make up of the race…. try getting the short prices beaten……

MrE

[Bricoman]

MrE…As soon as I saw all the squiggles, brackets and Aztec sign writing I switched off…the most I got at school was an O level in dropping my pencil and looking up the teachers dress…..

As I mentioned earlier…had a major n/r in the 1st race, so had to revise my odds down…Master Chef…REQ odds 3.91…ASK odds 4.30…100% match (WON 3/1 2F@SP)….Climaxtackledotcom was a n/r…Red Romeo…REQ odds 10.30…ASK odds…11.50…Not Matched…(9th 6/1@SP)….Honkey Tonk Sally…REQ odds 4.53…ASK odds 5.00…Got 5.90 early doors…(3 x n/r’s but all 0% reduction factors)….(5th 3/1@SP)…Dream Lodge…REQ odds 6.90…ASK odds 7.60…Got 11.00@70% and 13.18@30%….100% match…N/R declared after match…10.01% r.f….My odds reduced to 9.89@70% and 11.91@30%…(5th 11/2@SP)

On betting SP…1 win (3/1)…3 lost…bank the same….roi decreased.
Exchange betting…1 win (100/30)…2 lost…roi on the day 37.83%

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 32 bets, 37.50% s/r, 17.22% r.o.i., 11.80% r.o.o.i.
Exchanges: 27 bets, 40.74% s/r, 50.47% r.o.i., 44.16% r.o.o.i.

Grains of gold MrE…Grains of gold….

Regards

Brico

[davidbrady]

Hi guys

Mr.E – I had a look at Adrian Massey’s website (he has a very comprehensive database) and ran a query on the "Fate of the Favourite" – I used the following race types:

Races from 2003 to 2007 (to-date)
Group races and Handicaps ONLY (no sellers/maidens/claimers)
cl1 – cl4 ONLY
Clear Favourite ONLY
8-9 runners ONLY
No AW racing
No 2yo races

I used these filters cos I reckon the horses who race in the remaining races would be the most consistent and not open to as much improvement

The results of the 745 races it analysed were that the favourite was placed only 58.5% of the time.

So if you’re getting 70% SR, then either you’re very lucky or you know your stuff.

[Bricoman]

Just 4 bets today…the n/r’s have been deducted and my odds revised.

2.25 Ches (5) Somnus (RP f/c 4/1)…REQ…6.25…ASK…7.00

3.00 Ches (2) Lucayan Dancer (RP f/c 5/1)…REQ…5.38…ASK…6.00

4.35 Asco (4) Out After Dark (RP f/c 5/2F)…REQ…8.55…ASK…9.40

5.30 York (4) Rose Siog (RP f/c 4/1)…REQ…7.00…ASK…7.80

Looking at the recent available odds on BF…I’ve got no chance of my bets being matched…or have I…??……..

As always..will try and keep an eye on the latest n/r’s to affect my bets and revise my odds accordingly.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Hot off the press!!

Major n/r in the 5.30 Ascot…Revised my odds and re-submitted my bet…REQ…5.56…ASK…6.00…available on BF 2.70…

No chance…

Laters

Brico

[MrE]

Brico….. I think that you misunderstood what I said…. I said to look to get the favourite beaten…. I didn’t say that I bet the favourite, I NEVER bet the favourite….. but the race where the short priced favs look beatable means that you’ll possibly get a better deal looking at the second and third favs….. and even if the favourite ends up winning, my selection should still get placed…… hopefully I’ve explained that a bit better….

MrE

[Bricoman]

MrE…I think you must be refering to davidbrady in his "Fate of the Fav’s" post…where are your bins…

Couldn’t get a match yesterday…Don’t know if it’s a handicap race thing or a Saturday thing but nowhere near my REQ odds…nevermind my ASK odds.

Started the day off with 8 selections…1 was doubtful…2 were abandoned and an early n/r announced before I posted the remainder….Leaving 4…Somnus…REQ odds 6.25…ASK odds 7.00 (revised after 1 n/r)…NO MATCH…(6th 4/1@SP)…Lucayan Dancer…REQ odds 4.94…ASK odds 5.50 (revised after 4 n/r’s)…NO MATCH…(WON 5/2F@SP)…Out After Dark…REQ odds 8.55…ASK odds 9.40…NO MATCH…(7th 3/1F@SP)…Rose Siog…REQ odds 5.56…ASK odds 6.00 (revised after 1 n/r)…NO MATCH…(2nd 3/1@SP.

So 4 bets @ SP…1 win…3 lost and 0 bets on the exchanges matched.

July Stats Update:

Betting@SP: 36 bets, 36.11% s/r, 13.92% r.o.i., 10.73% r.o.o.i.
Exchanges: 27 bets, 40.74% s/r, 50.47% r.o.i., 44.16% r.o.o.i.

Back later with bets for today.

Regards

Brico

[Bricoman]

Started the day with two major cock-ups…took 2 bets at too short a price through my lack of concentration….

2.00 Stra (3) Soliya…REQ odds 5.13…ASK odds 5.60…Not matched 2.54 available…(RP f/c 7/4 2F)

3.10 Pert (5) Pigeon Island…REQ odds 3.85…ASK odds 4.25…(cock-up No 1)…Got 3.95 100% matched…(RP f/c 7/2)

4.00 Stra (3) Hot Zone…REQ odds 3.53…ASK odds 3.85…Not matched 1.96 available…(RP f/c 10/11F)

5.00 Stra (5) Dazzling Jim…REQ odds 9.11…ASK odds 10.00…(cock-up No 2)…Got 6.60 100% matched…(RP f/c 6/1)

5.10 Pert (9) Still At Lunch…REQ odds 7.60…ASK odds 8.40…Not matched 4.20 available…(RP f/c 11/4 2F)

Will keep an eye out for n/r’s and adjust odds on all unmatched bets.

Regards

Brico

[MrE]

Oooops…. yeah Brico, it was davidbrady’s post…. OK David, you can read that now…. for your information, I dont restrict the races, except for the amount of runners, and thats never as low as 9…. obviously the lowest is 8 to get the third place, but in 16 or over 4th is also going begging…… neither do I restrict myself to certain ages…. prices are what guides me, and the S/R of favourites doesn’t even enter the equation…. on Friday I got it down to two selections (Hatta Fort and Viking Spirit) which Won at odds of 9/2 and 4/1….. yesterday I also made two selections (Somnus and Golden Dixie) and both those were stuffed outa sight, so you pays yer money and takes yer chance…. but believe me, favs aint got nowt to do with it…… I’m sorry if that put you on the wrong track mate…..

MrE

[Bricoman]

I’ve been looking at the way the markets have been moving and have decided to change my strategy to get a decent chance of having a bet accepted…

I will meet the RP f/c price half way…so the difference between my REQ odds and the RP odds will be the odds accepted today…otherwise I’m never going to get another bet accepted again….Hands up…

So we have new odds for my picks…Soliya 3.95….Pigeon Island 4.20 (already accepted 3.95…cock-up No 1)…Hot Zone 2.70…Dazzling Jim 8.00 (already accepted 6.60…cock-up No 2)…Still At Lunch 5.70

Take Soliya…My REQ odds 5.13 plus RP odds 2.75 = 7.88 divide by 2 = 3.95…Odds asked for on BF = 3.95…

PS: MrE…. Loads of people viewing this thread but no bugger posting…

Regards

Brico

[MrE]

yeah….. lots of people reading for sure, I suppose thats a start….. I looked at some previous threads and there aint been as many views as this threads had in such a short time….. I aint sure wether its because of your selections or the discussion thats been taking place…..
Message boards like TRF are the place for discussions and for people to air their views or talk about their own selection methods, I just wonder why this has dropped off so badly….. a couple of years ago this was thriving, now its hardly breathing…. I hope it aint terminal…..
I’d like to know why its asthmatic though, I suspect that other posters have had losing runs and perhaps were subject to a bit of slagging, or perhaps when members share their ideas they become subject to a pisstake…. I dunno the answer, but its a pity……
This is primarily a horsey board, but the systems section is exactly that, its for systems of any discription, GG related or not….. I’m sure that with the likes of Matron, Dave Jay, Artemis, davidbrady and that bloody little Snowball (if he aint already melted)…. and of course your good self Brico, a bit of life can be breathed back into it again…… c’mon guys, post your system selections, you dont have to put the method up, just a few selections….. if it/they lose, no sweat, we’re not gonna take the weewee, well, maybe just a little bit…..
Just for starters, I’ll be the second one (Brico’s leading) to post my losers…… just for today…..
2.40 Perth.. Commercial Express…..
4.30 Strat.. Cresswell Widow…..

MrE

[Artemis]

I think I know why not many people are posting on this section of the forum. I believe that people like to discuss methods of selection rather than staking plans. Not many people who post actually go into detail about how they make their selections: they often just give the selections.

Most people(myself included) have an idle curiosity in how other people’s selections perform – it’s usually quite comforting to learn that other people are just as bad at picking winners as we are – Schadenfreude, I believe it’s called: taking consolation from the human failings of our fellow travellers along life’s road. That might explain the interest in reading the posts.

Whenever a selection is posted, it should be tied to some systematic (and preferably rational) method of selection. If it’s just a fancy,it should really be posted on the Lays and Plays section of the forum.

I don’t think there is much danger of giving away secrets here. By definition, we are all fairly small players and we know that there is no magic formula or holy grail to finding winners.

So, let’s have more discussion about methods of selection as well as staking plans and personal blogs, however enjoyable they are to follow.
This approach might get people posting again.

[grand lodge]

Hello to everyone,

I have been reading this thread with interest and it seems that MrE is working on similar lines to a selection method in my systems portfolio. However, I must question why you backed Viking Spirit, being only seven runners in the line up?

Does anybody pay attention to over round percentages? I think it is quite an important tool for people like MrE and anybody who likes to use the market as guide/pointer to betting the front-end.

Furthermore, my regular haunt has also gone a bit quiet so this is not the only place that may be suffering from lack of input quality/quantity. I don’t think it can regarded as bad reflection on either site, though – we just need more topics like this on the go.

Keep up the good work.

[MrE]

Hi Grand Lodge, nice to see you posting…… the Viking Spirit question is easy enough to answer…. at the time of selection there were 8 runners, it was a withdrawal that knocked it down to 7 runners, at the time of withdrawal my bet was already on so I couldn’t very well "unbet" it, and anyway, Betfair still paid out on 3rd place……. if there had only been 7 runners when I was studying, I wouldn’t have given the race the time of day……
Artemis…. I can see where your coming from as regards staking and I will refrain from going down that path…. but as regards the giving out details of genuinely good systems, I would frown on that really…. things are just not as they used to be and some people are not exactly honest….. I was (not now) a member of a message board just like this, and had good discussions, but the guys at the top were selling their own systems to members…. they still are….. and I’ll be buggered if I’m gonna put in months or even years backtracking and studying, often burning the midnight oil to achieve the S/R I’m getting now, just so that they can pinch whatever part of it they want and then blatantly flog it on the net….. so for this reason I can see why others dont put their own methods up and I’m all for it…… but there is no reason that you can’t put part of it up and get help……I actually have 3 great online friends that I give my selections to so I really do just like to keep it small, but I trust these friends, and when I’m happy that I’ve got it nailed, I will pass it on, but I wont put it on a message board, I’m to long in the tooth to play those games……. I’d help anybody with their queries without even wishing to know their methods, I’m not interested because I’ve got my own to concentrate on and that takes me a couple of hours, somebody elses to follow also, would be too much……..
All this squitter really, is to get people to talk to each other and give newcomers a chance and some idea on where to start…… it seems utterly stupid for somebody to spend months going through something that we’ve already done……. I’ve done a lot over the years and I can tell you that I would doubt wether there is more that half a dozen good methods around, most of the new systems are just bits and pieces gleaned fom different methods……
This is really a strange feeling, but as I’m writing this I’m already thinking that this is too much like hard work…… perhaps I’ll just withdraw and let the young ‘uns have a go…….

MrE

[Matron]

I promise you MrE, the commission cheque is in the post!

You want post about staking, then feel free as far as I am concerned as I am always interested in what you have to say.

I think everything on here is in the doldrums at present; hopefully Cormack will get "TRF"sorted to everybodys liking soon. I have also been very busy "work wise"also and have not been able to contribute much lateley.

I would also like to see some new faces with new ideas and new angles to mull over. Some come on people join in, we are a very friendly bunch down here.

Welcome to "TRF" Grand Lodge.

Regards – Matron

[MrE]

Hello Matron…. I wasn’t having a go at anyone mate…… I’ve just re read my post and it does look like i was having a tantrum….. I wasn’t really…. i only noticed that when I read it again…. what i was trying to put over was that I’m finding it hard work to find time to keep writing, and i’m retired, so I think that might be the reason that there’s not many posting…. it does take up a lot of time, and when your into the GG’s, Poker, Blackjack and Roulette, its genuinely hard to squeeze the odd half hour in to post messages….. this is why I think the punters are lacking on here, there’s too much other stuff on…… I hope that’s a better explanation, I wouldn’t want any of the guys thinking I was a bitter old git…… and on top of that I’ve just tried to withdraw £400 from my Betfred account and they’ve only given me £200…. so I’ve lost £200 and I’m really pissed off…… I’m fighting it now, but to be honest, how do you beat these guys, you have your money deposited with them in good faith, but all it seems is that all they have to pay you, is your original deposit….. they’re a law unto themselves…… so I’ve just lost £200 and I aint a happy bunny……

MrE

[Author]

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