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Don’t think it was any surprise to see Borderlesscott run well in a race like that. I think it was a suprise to me that he won, but good luck to him.
Without being seen to snipe, I was amused by the trainer. He seemed to be saying he’s spent years thinking that 6f was the horses best trip. Then was concerned yesterday because he thought the ground had gone against him.
I’m not sure about the Kings Apostle race. It revovles around whether you are with or against Winker Watson. I had my eye on Damika earlier in the week, when it was wet. Not sure really quick ground will help him (it will help others more is what I mean).
For me, the interesting sprinter today is Hoh Mike up at Beverley. Not saying he’s a rock-solid bet, he’s a gamble….but I could not imagine this horse been sent off at 6/1 (RP forecast) in a modest listed race on ground he’ll probably enjoy. They have left the visor off today as well.
I’m a big fan of Damika as well Colin.
As you say he would have preferred a bit of cut in the ground and the other worry is the draw – high numbers definitely seemed to have an edge yesterday. That said, I could still see him going close – he has a bit of old Quito about him – keeps on running well in top handicaps/listed company and still improving…
Agree re the draw. You could also argue that Borderlesscott had the best of it yesterday as well. I made a point of not mentioning it earlier, as I didn’t want to be detracting too much from the occasion.
Imo, the draw at Newmarket put pay to a few horses chances yesterday. I felt really sorry for Midday & her connections in one of the maidens.
Have a good day.
Thought I would recycle last year’s thread.
Looking at the last ten years, 7 had won at least one of their last three races (and they had all run at least three times that season). So one thought is to concentrate on those. I estimate that would be about 17 runners.
However, 2 of the 3 that hadn’t won recently have provided the two big-priced winners of the race. None of the other winners was bigger than 14/1. No wonder I’ve had problems with the race.
I’m interested in
Advanced
– he is 11 lbs lower than when winning the Ayr Gold Cup in 2007, and has shown good form this season. Won at Ponty, Drawn 2 when 3rd at Beverley, and 6th in the Wokingham.
I think I’ll leave it at that, and put most of my pennies on Reggane in the Nassau instead.
In looks, style of racing and to some extent form Hitchens reminds me of Green Ruby who won this about 20 years ago and at 35+ will do for me.
Striking Spirit is one that really interests me, one of the bottom weights and has a 3lb claim with Ahmed Ajtebi. He blows hot and cold, beaten 11l by Knot In Wood at Ascot but was giving him two pounds, Knot In Wood is giving loads here to him, but Stewards Cup have disappointed before like Conquest.
Danger I think is Fishforcompliments, Fahey once said he is the best horse in his yard, and that was when he had Utmost Respect, but for some reason he never tries on the racecourse, if he got him going he thinks he could go very far, they are putting blinkers on him see if they can spark him, horrible draw but good value at 33’s.
On a side note how great was it to see Laa Rayb hack up once again at huge odds like he did when I backed him last year for the International, way better than that lot he faced by a distance, he routed them. Love the horse for how much profit he gives us punters. If a horse was a punters pal to me its this guy. Fortune said it was one of the easiest rides he has had at Goodwood.
14-year trends say that 1,2,3,4,6,8,9,10,11,16,19,22,23,24,25,27 and 28 can’t win.
Based purely on the draw I’d eliminate 15, 18 and 20 as well.
Now I get harsh. 21’s eliminated due to being Irish-trained.
The only 3yo to win since 1986 was Danetime so I can overlook Global City.
Evens And Odds’ form after his first 2 starts of the season has been dire the past 2 years so I can forget him. It’s been a similar story for Jimmy Styles and he’s lacking a top 2 start in his past 2 starts.
Buachaill Dona
Sonny Red
Advanced
Striking Spiritall remain.
All 4 of Sonny Red’s victories came over 5f and he doesn’t seem to stay 6f. This course will suit his lack of stamina but he’ll be very vulnerable to something swooping late. Ditto for Buachaill Dona.
Striking Spirit has pretty much the perfect profile for the race. High draw, trained by Dandy Nicholls, a top 2 finish in his past 2 starts, low in the weights and ran in the Wokingham. 20/1s an excellent price.
Advanced has almost an identical profile but missed out on 2nd place by a neck 2 starts ago and is also a fantastic bet at 25s.
EDIT – Given the ground, 15, 18 and 20 come back into it on account of the draw. Fishforcompliments I’ll happily overlook. I’m not sure what to make of Enderby Spirit but Biniou is ridden by the perfect jockey for this race, is clearly progressive and likes the ground.
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I wouldn’t have a bet in this if you paid me to but should be fun to watch.
Richard Fahey’s must have agreat chance but too many factors can come into play for me to have a bet.
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Enderby Spirit and Beaver Patrol (assuming he breaks well) for me.
The stands side rail has been riding particularly fast all season – we’ve seen a number of examples of this all week, most notably the 1-2-3 in the King George Sprint running from stalls 1, 2 and 3. This particular horse runs well at Goodwood and in big sprints and despite losing his action last time out is only 4lbs higher than when winning at Bath earlier in the season – at 50/1 and in stall 3 with pace through Fishforcompliments in amongst the low drawn horses
Osiris Way
is the one for me.
Screw this for a game of soldiers. I’m not putting anything on, but a very quick glance at the card and i’m thinking Biniou at 22/1. I’m not a fan of these races to be honest.
Been at work this morning so without giving it too much thought [which is a waste of time in my case anyway] had tiny bets on Buachaill Dona, Advanced, Global Way [got a G1 entry next month] and Pearly Wey for a bit of fun. Have to contribute to these bookies benefit races, y’know.
Brilliant analysis, marb; trainer said horse probably needs further, and they seemed to race him on his own. Hope you got your price!
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Well done to any Genki backers.
Of those behind Richard Hughes didn’t look to be at all hard on Biniou when he realised he was miles off the pace of the far side, but he came home well enough and could be successfully turned out in the near future.
Genki”s
form on right handed tracks at class 2 blarr blarr blarr
what the fecck do you know
great callWhat race? They went out of sight of any cameras for what seemed like nearly two furlongs. So you didn’t really miss anything Marble.
I took your reference to righthanded 6f was to knock out the 6f courses with a lefthanded kink, such as Bath, Brighton, Catterick, Epsom, Pontefract, Warwick.
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Of those behind Richard Hughes didn’t look to be at all hard on Biniou when he realised he was miles off the pace of the far side, but he came home well enough and could be successfully turned out in the near future.
Won easily at Nottingham tonight, albeit at 7/4.
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