- This topic has 116 replies, 29 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Backed Home By The Lee 18/1 this morning. Teahupoo the most likely winner but he’s short enough for me now. Home By The Lee was bery unlucky last year with the mistake at the hurdle in front of the stands costing him 5-6 lengths. Blinkers applied now also which will hopefully eek out a bit of improvement.
My current 100% Book:
7/4 Teahupoo
6/1 Crambo
7/1 Noble Yeats
10/1 Sir Gerhard
12/1 Flooring Porter
13/1 Paisley Park
13/1 Sire Du Berlais
20/1 Home By The Lee
66/1 Dashel Drasher
132/1 Asterion Collonges
200/1 Janadil
500/1 Buddy OneValue Is EverythingI cannot see past Teahupoo, although I was hoping for a slightly better price.
I have also had an each way saver on Sire Du Berlais, 14/1 four places. He is in the veteran stage but he lights up at Cheltenham and should run well.
Got to give good old Paisley Park one last chance. After 3 crueling finishes this season this might be the day, at least for a place.
Teahupoo 4/1
Paisley Park 14/1 EWTeahupoo is too short for me but has obvious claims. Harry Cobden felt Noble Yeats won the Cleeve with a bit in hand so Noble Yeats it is.
The more I know the less I understand.
I think Teahupoo’s one of the most overrated horses in training myself, had every chance last year in a really bad renewal of the stayers, didn’t get beat far and probably not the best ride but he wasn’t going to win by miles from a bunch of old timers who all beat each other even with a better ride. He got beat at Punchestown afterwards too. I can’t understand where the confidence comes from if you watch back last years race that he’s a certainty this year. The only plausible angle is he’s coming here fresh but its well over factored into the betting. Noble Yeats and Crambo didn’t do enough to say they are head and shoulders clear either. The only plausible angle in is probably Sir Gerhard who has no form ties to any of them but I don’t like horses who start the season as chasers and then come back, same reason I couldn’t back Flooring Porter. I’ve got no idea what wins this but I thought Dashel Drasher was a bit overpriced EW relative to most of the horses he has form with.
Am on teahupoo antepost
And have added sire du berlais and flooring porter today
Teahupoo will win though
As long as he’s not ridden too far back like last year.
Flooring Porter is the obvious pace and he’ll likely be pressed by Dashel Drasher… And although not usually a leader, I expect Noble Yeats will track the pace and – if too slow – Cobden will have no choice but go on. So it should be a reasonable pace this year, FF.
I do have savers on Flooring and Noble just in case.Value Is EverythingAll three of my main bets are hold up horses, so I hope it is truly run.
Teahupoo 3.35, Paisley Park 20 and Crambo 9.6.Value Is EverythingWho says Teahupoo is a “certainty” TTM?
He’s a 7/4 shot on the machine.
So if someone thinks it has just a 40% (fair 6/4) chance… (a 60% chance of losing) – then that punter should back it @ 7/4.Value Is EverythingSir Gerard bar Corach tomorrow’s has turned into one of my main bets of the week , Pricewise stated he’s the one horse that could rip the field apart and I def believe that , some question if he’ll get home , he will , Noble Yeats is his biggest danger
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Nice open renewal, and it’ll be Home By The Lee and old friend Paisley Park for a bit of each way thievery.
The thing about Teahupoo is not that his form is miles clear of all, TTM. It’s that those closest to his ability – Sire De Grugy, Flooring Porter, Paisley Park – all have big question marks over whether they are still capable.
The unexposed brigade – Crambo, Noble Yeats and possibly the blinkered for the first time Home By The Lee – all have improvement in them, but Teahupoo’s form is a fair way in front of them. So (if Teahupoo runs to form) those three will need to improve quite a bit to beat him.
Sir Gerhard – is from the stable in brilliant form and did win the Ballymore a couple of seasons ago. But needs to improve a fair bit on that novice form and has stamina to prove.
Value Is EverythingCant leave my old mucker alone – he’s been as tough as ever this season
Paisley Park win only
E/W on Asterion Forlonge at 50s, 1st 4 places.
Best of luck to all
I haven’t seen anyone mention the Gordon Elliott form.
Around 30 runners without a win.
Almost 40 runners with the only winner being a 2/5 shot.tbh He has had so many run to their form without winning, I don’t (yet) think he’s “out of form”.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.