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Going to give this a go for the Flat season. It’s not a "back-blind" system as such but more of a methodology based on certain criteria. The final decision on whether to back or not will be purely subjective so apologies if any winners are missed.
What I am looking for is a Group race where a stable has ONLY 2 horses entered where one of them is fancied and the other is not as fancied but is not a no-hoper either. The market/RP forecast will be the guide as to whether or not a horse is a bet.
I had a look at this for all Gr1 & Gr2 races last season and it did quite well BUT only if we ignore horses which are say 16/1 or bigger. Sticking to single-figure prices does even better but I’m open minded on that so I’ll leave them in and review at the end of the season.
Staking is 1pt level-stakes but if I fancy a big priced horse then I’ll go 1pt each-way.
this is an interesting theory
using the ‘use races’ facility on horseracebase system builder i limited a query to only races of group 1, 2 or 3 or listed (flat or aw) where trainer had 2 runners in the race and one of them was between 1/40 and 5/1
i then used these races to check the second string (by looking at horses over 5/1)
obviously you may have your own settings but thats what i used
anyway very interesting to break down by trainer
if you took the 4 trainers with over 10% strike rate you would have halford, prendergast, suroor & stoute
114 qualifiers, 16 wins, 72 points profit
It shows profit every year from 2003-2007
Period Bets Wins SP Points Strike Rate
2007 21 4 16.00 19.05%
2006 16 2 3.00 12.5%
2005 21 3 34.00 14.29%
2004 28 4 18.50 14.29%
2003 28 3 0.50 10.71%Thanks for the stats ahitchcott. What is it like where the 2nd string is under say 14/1.
I’m away for the weekend so here’s a brief look at the 4 Group races this weekend:
Sat 19-Apr
John Porter Stakes (NBY 14:15)
Only Henry Cecil runs 2 in this race – Tempelstern & Tranquil Tiger. Using both RPRs & ORs, Templestern is 2nd lowest rated in both so I would be surprised if there was a bet in this race.Fred Darling Stakes (NBY 15:25)
Richard Hannon runs 2 here (Dream Day (RPR 109) & Elizabeth Swann (95)) as does Clive Brittain (Love Of Dubai (109) & Tathkaar(88 )). Again using RPRs, the 2nd strings don’t look to be up to much and are readily passed over.Greenham Stakes (NBY 16:00)
No trainer has 2 runners so no betSun 20-Apr
Ballysax Stakes (LEO 16:05)
Aidan O’Brien runs 3 of a field of 7. Last year in Britain, Ballydoyle ran more than 2 horses in several races, the Derby being the most numerate and high-profile with 8 runners. Backing all horses outside the stable main hope (according to market) in those races yielded a Level-stake-loss of 32 points! So needless to say, this race is a no-bet.Wed 30-Apr-08
ASC 15:55 (Sagaro Stakes)
Mark Johnston runs 2 here, Soapy Danger & Peppertree Lane. Soapy Danger is 2nd fav in the RP forecast and is tipped by Spotlight so could possibly go off outright favourite. Therefore Peppertree Lane is the selection for this race
Peppertree Lane – 1pt winASC 16:30 (Listed Race)
Not a Group race but Pattern nonetheless. Richard Hannon runs 2 but both are greater than 12/1 so are not considered. Peter Chapple-Hyam also runs 2, one of which, Fat Boy, looks like it go off a short-enough favourite. His 2nd runner, Spirirt of Sharjah, has been put in at 12/1 5th fav and could sneak a place at likely double-figure odds.
Spirit of Sharjah – 1pt each-wayWed 30-Apr RESULTS
Peppertree Lane – 2nd @ 7/2
Spirit of Sharjah – NRLoss on Day -1.00
P&L +7.00
SR 50%
Peppertree Lane was beaten a short-head having been matched at 1.15 in-running. The horse was backed in fairly heavily on Betfair just before the off (was as high as 12.50 about 30mins before the race) and Johnston’s other runner, Soapy Danger only actually went off at 3/1.
It’s been a while since there was a qualifier for this system
Thu 29-May-08
SAN 19:45 Brigadier Gerard Stakes
I doubt there’s too many Classic winners could be regarded as a stable string but in tomorrow’s Brigadier Gerard Stakes, Lucarno is down in the RP as 7/1 while Gosden’s other runner Pipedreamer is the RP forecast favourite at 11/4.
Selection: Lucarno – 1pt winFri 06-Jun
EPS 13:40 Diomed Stakes
Godolphin run 2 3yo here, with the forecast and the jockey booking suggesting that Alexandros is the outsider of the two. For all that, both look like starting in the first 4 of the betting
Selection – Alexandros 1pt winIn the other races at Epsom, A P O’Brien runs 3 in the Coronation Cup and 6 in the Oaks. No selections in either of those 2 races.
Tue 17-Jun
ASC 14:30 Queen Anne Stakes
Alain du Royer-Dupre runs both Sageburg & Darjina in this, both of which should go off shorter than 10/1. Sageburg will probably be the shorter price of the 2 so the selection here is Darjina
Selection – Darjina 1pt winTue 16-Jun RESULTs
Darjina LOST
P&L +4.00pts
SR 20% (1/5)
The last 2 bets actually went off shorter than their stable companion having been supported during the day (probably on the strength of this thread
). Neither horse won anyway so no damage done either way.Wed 18-Jun
ASC 14:30 Jersey Stakes
Saeed Bin Suroor runs 2 here, both of which will probably be in the first 5-6 of the betting. I don’t know why Frankie isn’t jocked up on Calming Influence, who is currently favourite for the race. Anyway, based on current prices, Frankie’s mount Il Warrd is a general 12/1 and he is worth an each-way punt
Selection – Il Warrd – 1pt each-way
). Neither horse won anyway so no damage done either way.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.